2022 AO - Men’s Singles Preview

2022 Australian Open 

Men’s Singles Preview

There is one player in the draw who has won the Australian Open previously.

Rafa Nadal won in 2009 and has lost four finals since.

Three former beaten finalists will contend in 2022:

Last years finalist, and number two seed Daniil Medvedev, 2018 runner-up Marin Cilic, and regular loser Andy Murray who has lost the finale on four occasions to the nine times winner who will not be defending his crown this year.

So, who does what in this years first major ? 

Not much can be concluded from lead up tournaments, as most of the top ranked players left their racquets at home or in hotels.

However, we did see the talents of Daniil Medvedev as he manfully led a depleted Russian team to the semis in the ATP Cup. His singles performances were stunning, albeit losing one match to Frenchman Ugo Humbert. And he was a standout in doubles matches with teammate Roman Safiullin.

2021 US Open champion Medvedev, who at #2 is the AO highest ranked, now that the top seed will be elsewhere, is seeking something that is rare. To grab his second major at the very next Grand Slam tournament after winning his first. None of the ‘Big 3’ did it.

His task seems initially without drama, but Australians may have the the chance to see Nick Kyrgios record some typical highlights before falling as a second round Medvedev victim.

Revenge should be wreaked upon Ugo Humbert in round three, and the Russian match up hoped for by organisers is the quarter final between fifth seed Andrey Rublev and Medvedev.

Rublev has no 2022 lead in form on which to judge, while there are players in his section of the draw who do :

Possible third round opponent Marin Cilic (27) made the Adelaide semis, Dan Evans (24) was undefeated in ATP Cup singles, and was a semi finalist in the Sydney Tennis Classic (lost in 3 sets to the eventual champion), Felix Auger-Aliassime (9) helped Canada win its first ATP Cup, and Arthur Rinderknech was a finalist In Adelaide.

Rublev should meet and beat Felix in the round of sixteen.

How does Stefanos Tsitsipas navigate a path to his semi final with Medvedev ?

Firstly by knocking off Sweden’s Mikael Ymer in the opening round. The improving Ymer caused Kokkinakis problems in the Adelaide quarter finals but shouldn’t distract Stefanos for any longer than three sets.

Dimitrov in the third round and I’d suspect Roberto Bautista Agut in a testing round of sixteen clash. The Argentine had four wins in the ATP Cup, including two over top ten players. History suggests the run may end for Roberto at round four, as he has only made the quarters once in 10 AO main draw attempts. (2019)

Two young stars could battle for a quarter final spot against Stefanos.

Casper Ruud (8) and Jannik Sinner (11) are in only their fourth and third AO main draws respectively, but the rise in careers has been sharp, and no reason Melbourne Park ticket holders won’t see the evidence.

Tsitsipas v Medvedev in one semi final.

The other side of the draw has Nadal, and he is the sixth seed. 

He is seemingly fit, and unusually he played a lead up tournament, at Melbourne Park, and he took the chocolates.

He doesn’t have an especially nice draw on paper, but the game is not played there, it’s on a hard court and that’s why Nadal should fly past his first couple of opponents, including Adelaide finalist Karen Khachanov (28), and find his way into a fourth round meeting with either Sydney winner Aslan Karatsev (18) or Hubert Hurkacz (10).

I’m giving Nadal that match, but from there it becomes tricky, as a quarter final against third seed Alexander Zverev beckons.

There is nothing in the Zverev section that represents a serious concern, although Denis Shapovalov showed improvement towards the end of the ATP Cup, and he may be a reasonable practise opponent in the round of sixteen for Zverev.

The very top of the top half of the draw has opened up for seventh seed Matteo Berrettini. With the non appearance of the nine time champion, a lucky loser from qualifying now takes that spot, meaning Berrettini is now seeded to play Zverev in the semis. Previously he was seeded to play the nine time champion in the quarters.

To reach the semis, Berrettini will likely need to overcome young Spanish star Carlos Alcaraz (31) in round three, Pablo Carreno Busta (19) or Cameron Norrie (12) in the round of sixteen, and Gaël Monfils (17) or Cristian Garin (16) in the quarters.

One of the questions is: Does Nadal have enough to push past Zverev into a semi final ? If so, I think he would fix up Berrettini.

Here is what I guess:

Semi finals 

Matteo Berrettini (7) v Alexander Zverev (3)

Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) v Daniil Medvedev (2)

Alexander Zverev to defeat Daniil Medvedev in the final