Much has been made of how open the Women’s Singles will be this year at the US Open, but I don’t believe there are all that many realistic chances in the draw to grab the trophy.
Starting at the top, world #1 Ash Barty is nicely placed to improve her record at this major. The Wimbledon champion is coming off a winning week in Ohio where she didn’t drop a set, and defeated Grand Slam title holders Azarenka, Krejcikova and Kerber en route to Western & Southern Open glory.
Barty hasn’t lost much in 2021, but two players that have beaten her are drawn to meet in the opening round. The winner of unseeded Sara Sorribes Tormo and Karolina Muchova (22) could clash with Barty in the round of sixteen, but a potential third round match with Jennifer Brady (13) is a hurdle to be cleared first.
Iga Swiatek (7) is seeded to be Barty’s quarter final opponent, and the road to the final eight is not simple, especially given her run since Wimbledon - 1 win from 3 matches. Also, in this section are Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic (11), Cincinnati finalist Jil Teichmann, and Anett Kontaveit (28), who is currently in the Cleveland semi finals.
The other half of the top part of the draw features 2019 US Open winner Bianca Andreescu (6), and she is drawn to meet 2016 finalist Karolina Pliskova (4) in the quarters. Her path has Jelena Ostapenko (27), Petra Kvitová (10) and Maria Sakkari (17) with which to possibly contend. Like Swiatek, Bianca has a 1-2 record since Wimbledon.
Pliskova is better placed to proceed confidently deep into the tournament.
There are several exciting potential clashes in the bottom half of the draw.
We could see Angelique Kerber (16) against CoCo Gauff (21) in the third round, Barbora Krejcikova (8) against Garbiñe Muguruza (9) in the round of sixteen, and Elise Mertens (16) against Ons Jabeur (20) in the third round.
Hopefully Simona Halep (12) is fully recovered from her injury woes, and she can, with Elina Svitolina (5), give fans a round of sixteen match to remember.
What I don’t expect is second seed Aryna Sabalenka to last as long as her seeding suggests. Sabalenka’s match winning record in majors is only 58%, and she has exited the last two US Opens in the second round.
Even if she reaches the quarters, I believe her departure will be organised by either Krejcikova or Muguruza. If not then, defending champion Naomi Osaka (3) will finish it in the semis.
Predictions
Quarter finals
Ashleigh Barty (1) d Belinda Bencic (11)
Karolina Pliskova (4) d Petra Kvitová (10)
Naomi Osaka (3) d Elina Svitolina (5)
Barbora Krejcikova (8) d Aryna Sabalenka (2)
Semi finals
Ashleigh Barty (1) d Karolina Pliskova (4)
Naomi Osaka (3) d Barbora Krejcikova (8)
Final
Naomi Osaka (3) d Ashleigh Barty (1)
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