The final Grand Slam tournament for 2021 is upon us, and history could be made at Flushing Meadows should Novak Djokovic collect the US Open trophy, completing the calendar year Grand Slam.
To do this, he must navigate a draw missing his long time rivals Federer and Nadal. But to be fair, these days his greatest threats appear to be coming from the new generation. His three majors this year have been won in finals against Daniil Medvedev (AO), Stefanos Tsitsipas (RG) and Matteo Berrettini (Wimbledon).
The world #1 has a path on paper which should see him, if playing to his best, win through to the second week without too much stress.
He begins with a qualifier, then perhaps Jan-Lennard Struff, (6-0 H2H).
A third round clash with Kei Nishikori may happen, with David Goffin (27) so out of form, but Kei has lost 16 straight against Novak since he won that US Open semi final in 2014.
Djokovic is seeded to meet Alex de Minaur (14) in the round of sixteen, but the Aussie is well short of the early season promise he presented.
It’s the quarter finals where true testing should occur, and Berrettini (6) is probably going to be there. The Italian can’t take that for granted, with fellow countrymen Lorenzo Sonego (20) and Fabio Fognini (28), plus dangerous Hubert Hurkacz (10) in his section.
Djokovic’s real danger is possibly his likely semi final opponent, fourth seed Alexander Zverev, the man who dumped Novak on the way to Olympic gold, and backed it up with a definitive Cincinnati Masters 1000 victory.
A couple of facts though may mitigate the fear - the Olympics disappointment does not necessarily linger, as Ash Barty proved after her break. Also, before Novak lost to Zverev in Tokyo, he had won their past five contests, including two this year, one being the AO quarter final.
Daniil Medvedev (2) is performing well, and true to his ranking. He should continue that form, and quite possibly make the final for a second time.
I can’t see any of the seeded players in his half bothering him until the semis - Diego Schwartzman (11), Grigor Dimitrov (15), John Isner (19) and Casper Ruud (8) don’t have the weapons and consistency to match it with the Russian.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) and Andrey Rublev (5) are probably going to clash in a quarter final, with the winner to play Medvedev in a semi.
Predictions
Quarter finals
Novak Djokovic (1) d Matteo Berrettini (6)
Alexander Zverev (4) d Pablo Carreno Busta (9)
Andrey Rublev (5) d Stefanos Tsitsipas (3)
Daniil Medvedev (2) d Diego Schwartzman (11)
Semi finals
Novak Djokovic (1) d Alexander Zverev (4)
Daniil Medvedev (2) d Andrey Rublev (5)
Final
Novak Djokovic (1) d Daniil Medvedev (2)
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