RG 21 - Barty party ?

Simona Halep remains favourite to capture her second Roland Garros title according to many betting agencies, but the once crowned ‘queen of clay’ truly doesn’t deserve all the money being splurged upon her succeeding in Paris this year. 

Not that a Romanian triumph is beyond her, or that tennis would be poorer for it, but results and current form point elsewhere.

Simona just lost a round of sixteen encounter on the Madrid clay to an opponent, Elise Mertens, whose only previous win in their meetings was on a hard court.

And let’s look at RG - Halep exited there at the quarter final stage in 2019, and round of sixteen last year.

It’s hardly any secret which player has form on her side on the red stuff.

World number one Ashleigh Barty took most of 2020 off, missing competition with her contemporaries, but not wishing to compete with a pandemic.

2021 has seen the Australian win three tournaments, one on Stuttgart red clay, and has extended her run on that surface to 15 as she lands in the Madrid semis.

One of the three losses for Barty this year was to Spain’s Paula Badosa on the green clay of Charleston in the quarter finals.

Badosa had been a semi finalist earlier in Lyon, and perhaps of more significance she last year made the round of sixteen at RG, along the way defeating 2018 finalist Sloane Stephens and 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko.

Presently, the 62nd ranked Badosa is in Madrid and has used her wildcard to knockout four players including Belinda Bencic, to earn another crack at Barty in the semis. Already, a jump in rankings to a career high of 42 is assured. Ultimate tournament triumph would see entry into the top 30.

Aryna Sabalenka habitually destroys opponents on the scoreboard, and must hurt their feelings in the process. While this hobby was not particularly consistent as the Belarusian made her first waves in pro tennis, she now has carved a more measured menace on court, with 2021 dishing out fresh evidence.

Sabalenka ended 2020 with successive tournament wins in October and November, and began this year in similar fashion, lifting the Abu Dhabi trophy.

If only there weren’t Garbiñe Muguruza and Ash Barty. Aryna was stopped in Doha by Garbiñe, then the next week again in the quarters in Dubai.

Barty finished off Aryna in the Miami quarters, and in the Stuttgart final.

However, the danger of Sabalenka was on show in Stuttgart. Barty won the opening set, yet Sabalenka shook the stadium by bageling the #1 6-0 to force a decider.

Now in Madrid, Sabalenka is in the final four, having not dropped a set, while winning 46 games to 13.

Serena still rates a mention, just because.

The legend won eight straight matches this year before falling to eventual champion Naomi Osaka in the AO.

Not on court since, there is nothing upon which to rate Serena for RG except her continued determination, resilience and capacity to amaze at this stage of her career.

Naomi Osaka on clay is to some extent a work in progress. But I’m not one to dismiss the chances of a four time GS champion as quickly as some are on surfaces other than a hard court.

Ok a clay court is slower, but the power serve of Osaka can still be damaging, and her forehand is no less a weapon. 

This year, Osaka took a break after losing to Maria Sakkari in Miami, and her first clay court match was this week in Madrid against Karolina Muchova, 2021 AO semi finalist (Barty and Pliskova amongst her victims).

Yes, Osaka lost to Muchova, but did extend the contest to three sets.

And the RG record - three third round losses. 2017, unseeded to Venus Williams (10), 2018, seeded 21 to Madison Keys (13), and 2019 as top seed to unseeded Katerina Siniakova.

So one relative failure. Don’t be surprised to see Osaka in the second week in Paris.

Iga Swiatek is the defending champion, and must be respected in the draw.

In Madrid this week the Polish teenager pushed Ash Barty to the limit in both sets of their third round encounter, displaying all the variety and power  which had her clay court winning streak up to 18 before this loss.

Ash Barty, ahead of Madrid semis and Rome, should be the current favourite for 2021 Roland Garros, but the post over the fortnight is certain to deliver some unexpected mail, as the Iga Swiatek parcel showed last year.