RG - Men’s Singles preview

The talk among some pundits has been that this years Roland Garros men’s singles draw is the most open for many years.

I disagree, not envisaging anyone outside a proven few from surging through to late stages of the tournament.

My selections for the semis are three time winner and defending champion Novak Djokovic, 2020 quarter finalist Jannik Sinner, 2001 beaten finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, and 2021, 2022, 2023 semi finalist Alexander Zverev.

Zverev has just won the Italian Open, so is primed for another run deep in Paris.

Sinner is this year’s Australian Open champion, and has only lost twice in 2024.

Djokovic lost his Geneva semi, so his mind shifted quickly to Paris.

Tsitsipas was beaten in the Barcelona final and also in the Rome quarters.

Let’s appraise the possible paths of the four I’ve identified.

Djokovic faces a French wildcard in the opening round which doesn’t pose much of a problem, and second round should be Spain’s Roberto Carballes Baena, whose recent results aren’t great.

Third round is the first possible test.

Could be Gaël Monfils, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Daniel Elahi Galan, or the 30th seed Lorenzo Musetti.

None have shown form required to challenge Djokovic.

Tommy Paul (14) or Francisco Cerundolo (23) in round of sixteen, but Cerundolo lost to a qualifier in Lyon second round, where he was defending a title, so it should be Paul that Djokovic will defeat.

A quarter final is shaping up between Djokovic and the man he defeated in last year’s final Casper Ruud (7).

Ruud just won the Geneva title, and probably needs to sweep past Tomas Martin Etcheverry (28) on his way to the quarters.

He has the means to do that, but Djokovic to just sneak a win and make the semis.

Jannik Sinner is player of the year so far, having clinched the Aussie Open and Miami Masters.

He has big serving Christopher Eubanks in the first round, and in that same section Stan Wawrinka will play Andy Murray, both unseeded.

Neither of those three time Grand Slam champions will probably make it through to the third round though.

I believe Cameron Norrie (32) will be the third victim on Sinner’s path.

Sinner is drawn to meet either Nicolas Jarry (16) or Sebastian Baez (20) in the round of sixteen.

Jarry won his first Masters title in Rome, while Baez lost to eventual champion Ruud in Geneva.

Sinner lost his only previous match with Jarry, but that was on grass five years ago, and his record is 2-0 with Baez. Therefore, smooth sailing into the quarters where it appears to be Hubert Hurkacz (8) awaiting.

Hurkacz won Estoril In April, and since then has reached the round of sixteen in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, and quarters in Rome.

Hurkacz has beaten Sinner twice, but not on clay, the surface where Sinner beat him last they met - in Monte Carlo 2023.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (9) faces Marton Fucsovics in round one, Laslo Djere or Daniel Altmaier In round two, and is seeded to meet Ugo Humbert in round three. Give him one and two. Although Humbert has a 3-1 record against Tsitsipas, he has a poor Roland Garros history, failing to reach beyond the second round in six attempts.

I have Tsitsipas in a round of sixteen clash with Andrey Rublev (6).

Tsitsipas has a 6-5 record against Rublev, but more significantly 3-1 on clay, including a Roland Garros quarter final victory in 2020.

Alexander Zverev (4) has the hottest round one match of anyone.

He faces unseeded Rafa Nadal. The form line gives Zverev the edge in what could be Nadal’s last match in his stellar Roland Garros story.

A second round opponent could be French wildcard Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who surprised everyone claiming a title in his first final at the weekend in Lyon.

Zverev should prove too strong in a likely third round meeting with Tallon Griekspoor (26), which would see him in the round of sixteen.

There he is seeded to play Holger Rune (13).

Rune defeated Zverev in Munich 2022, their only clash to date, and he has made the quarters at Roland Garros the last two years.

However his current form is not enough to win here against Zverev, assuming he overcomes possible hurdles of Flavio Cobolli and Karen Khachanov (18) before then.

Quarter final is the hardest call - to defeat Daniil Medvedev (5).

Medvedev has a 12-7 record, including 6 of the last 7 against Zverev.

Zverev lost a five setter to Medvedev in the Australian Open semis this year after leading 2 sets to love.

I believe he can reverse that result and make the 2024:Roland Garros semis again.

Predictions 

Semi finals: 

Novak Djokovic (1) to defeat Alexander Zverev (4)

Stefanos Tsitsipas (9) to defeat Jannik Sinner (2)

Final:

Stefanos Tsitsipas (9) to defeat Novak Djokovic (1)