For all of the talk of a wide open, anyone can win, Women’s Singles event at the 2023 Australian Open, I can’t see an argument for many valid chances at all.
I fancy seven of the eight top seeds to make the quarter finals.
The expectation of a home victory in the Australian Open women’s singles this year is lessened greatly - to nought in fact - with the retirement of Ash Barty, and the late withdrawal through injury of our number one and best hope of passing round one, Ajla Tomljanovic.
However, this should not, and will not, diminish the potential for an exciting and fiercely competitive two weeks of high level women’s tennis.
Already, fifth seed Aryna Sabalenka, seventh seed CoCo Gauff, and twelfth seed Belinda Bencic, have won lead up tournaments in Adelaide, Auckland and Adelaide respectively.
Third seed Jessica Pegula was outstanding for Team USA in the United Cup, and others have shown promising early season form.
Top seed Iga Swiatek deserves favouritism. Her 2022 exploits were streets and suburbs ahead of the rest, and she led Poland well in the United Cup to begin 2023.
Swiatek should reach the quarters without too much hassle, seeded to meet Marie Bouzkova (25) in the third round, and Danielle Collins (13) in the round of sixteen. Elena Rybakina (22) or unseeded Elisabetta Cocciaretto could cause trouble for Collins, but not for Iga.
Swiatek is drawn to play CoCo Gauff (7) in the quarters, in a rematch of the 2022 Roland Garros final.
In her section, Gauff has former major winners Emma Raducanu and Jelena Ostapenko (17), but ultimately Paula Badosa (11) would have been the round of sixteen opponent for Gauff.
Sadly, a late injury has forced Badosa out, and the road forward is cleaner for Gauff.
Jessica Pegula (3) leads the third quarter in the top half of the draw.
Her run to the round of sixteen appears straightforward, and there she should play the winner of Barbora Krejcikova (20) and Petra Kvitova (16).
Finishing off the top of the draw is the Maria Sakkari (6) quarter.
Providing she can beat Jil Teichmann (32) in round three, a round of sixteen match looms with either Madison Keys (10) or Victoria Azarenka (24).
In the bottom half of the draw, Daria Kasatkina (8) should reach the fourth round, although unseeded Yulia Putintseva is a danger early in her quarter, not so much out of form Karolina Pliskova (30).
The predicted round of sixteen opponent is Veronica Kudermetova (9), the player Daria should have met in the Adelaide semi finals at the weekend, only for Kudermetova to withdraw through injury.
The winner of this will be a quarter finalist.
Caroline Garcia (4) should be waiting for that winner.
Garcia, winner of the 2022 WTA Finals, will likely knock over Leylah Fernandez, Irina-Camelia Begu (27) and Anett Kontaveit (16) on her path to the quarters.
The best round of sixteen clash will be the one featuring winners of the two Adelaide Internationals - Aryna Sabalenka (5) and Belinda Bencic (12).
No one else in this quarter warrants a mention in my opinion, and it’s just a pity that one of these players will be flying home before the second week.
Aryna stays on.
The bottom quarter of the bottom half sees Ons Jabeur (2) and Beatriz Haddad Maia (14) heading for battle in the fourth round.
Donna Vekic or Liudmila Samsonova (18) may disturb Beatriz a little, but not enough, and Marketa Vondrousova is finding some of the form that saw her in the 2019 Roland Garros final - Ons will still be too much.
And Jabeur likely to be in the quarters.
Predictions
Quarter finals
Iga Swiatek (1) defeating CoCo Gauff (7)
Jessica Pegula (3) defeating Madison Keys (10)
Caroline Garcia (4) defeating Daria Kasatkina (8)
Aryna Sabalenka (5) defeating Ons Jabeur (2)
Semi finals
Jessica Pegula (3) defeating Iga Swiatek (1)
Aryna Sabalenka (5) defeating Caroline Garcia (4)
Final
Aryna Sabalenka (5) defeating Jessica Pegula (3)
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