How rankings swing wildly at GS time

Tennis rankings tend to move violently with the arrival of Grand Slam tournaments.  The reasons are largely two fold:

• The successful players from the previous year have many points to defend, and these are lost when studying the live rankings at the start of this years event, and on a daily basis through the fortnight. e.g.  Sloane Stephens has effectively dropped to number 10 because her 2000 points earned from winning the 2017 title are gone, and will only be fully regained should she win back to back.  Even then, if Caroline Garcia or Petra Kvitová were to finish runner-up to Stephens, then either of them would take the number three ranking at tournament end, because of the net gain in points, this year over last.

• Where a player has not competed in the US Open in 2017, such as Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, then they have no points to defend.  For players with renowned records in majors, the potential is to collect a large stash of points and shoot up the rankings charts.  e.g. Djokovic could conceivably increase his points by 360 by making the quarter final, 720 if he defeats Federer should they meet in the final eight.  Winning the tournament would take Djokovic to number three in the rankings, up from six, and closing in on Federer for second spot.  Of course that is hypothetical, but explains how things can rapidly change.  The opposite is true when players don’t play and cannot defend the points won 12 months prior.  e.g.  Pablo Cuevas was a late withdrawal this year due to injury and with zero points from 2018 will have a net loss amounting to the points from 2017.

How live rankings have changed significantly for some due to the above:

Men

• Pablo Carreno Busta begins seven spots down at 19, due to losing his semi final points from last year.
• Denis Shapovalov starts five places lower at 33 thanks to a round of sixteen finish in 2017
• Jeremy Chardy won his opening round match this year, and because he didn’t play last year, has already gained nine places
• Sam Querrey, quarter finalist last year, lost his round one match this year, and has fallen 24 places - this could become worse as the fortnight rolls on
• Mischa Zverev also fell in round one and won’t have the chance to defend his round of sixteen points; he has dropped 13 places so far
• Andrey Rublev, quarter finalist in 2017, has fallen 30 spots as a result of a first round loss in 2018.
• A rapid rise for 20 year old French qualifier Ugo Humbert, who with no points to defend, won his opening main draw match and has jumped 28 places to a new career high of 111.  Of course 111 may only be temporary as there are a few below that have matches in hand and the potential to overtake, plus Ugo has Wawrinka next with which to contend.

Women

• Madison Keys begins seven spots lower at 21 due to losing her points from making last years final
• Shuai Zhang made the third round last year but lost her opening match this year so has already dropped five spots to 39, and that can only worsen as the days pass.
• CoCo Vandeweghe was a semi finalist last year, and has lost those points, so starts this year with a live ranking 22 spots lower at 47.
• Aleksandra Krunic loses her third round points from 2017 and begins with a live ranking seven places lower at 56.
• Vika Azarenka didn’t play last year and with her first round win this year gains enough points to lift her 17 places in the rankings to a temporary 62.
• Although rapt with her win over Simona Halep, Kaia Kanepi still,has to defend her quarter final points from last year.  They have been lost, and her live ranking at this point is 24 places lower than before the tournament commenced.
• Lara Arruabarrena lost her first round match in 2017, but not this year, and that is enough to give her a rankings boost of 16 places
• As said already Sloane Stephens began the tournament seven places lower in the live rankings at 10 due to losing her 2017 title winning points.