US Open - Women’s Singles Preview

US Open - Women’s Singles Preview

Without the worlds top two ranked players, and four others in the top ten not competing, the possibilities for this years US Open appear a deal wider than would normally be the case.

2016 finalist, and world #3, Karolina Pliskova, is the top seed, but is on the third line of betting behind equal favourites and former champions Serena Williams (3rd seed) and Naomi Osaka (4th seed).

Second seed and this years Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin, is on the fourth line of betting together with sixth seed Petra Kvitová.

Clearly, with the COVID-19 virus curtailing almost all tennis since March, players have had little tournament preparation leading into the Open.

Looking through the top seeded players, their draws, plus any recent performances, we may be able to gauge prospective chances over the next fortnight.

Karolina Pliskova (1)

In her first match since tennis returned, the Czech big server lost to Veronika Kudermetova at the Western & Southern Open in the past week.

Anhelina Kalinina should pose no problems first up, but former top five player Caroline Garcia is a likely second round opponent. Their head to head record is 3–3, with Garcia winning their past battle in Tianjin in 2018.

Garcia defeated Sloane Stephens at the Western & Southern Open before falling to eventual champion Vika Azarenka.

Assuming Pliskova overcomes Garcia, she is drawn to meet Jennifer Brady (28j, the winner of the Top Seed Open in Lexington.

The only previous meeting with Brady was at the 2017 US Open, where Pliskova surrendered just a single game.

A replay of the 2016 US Open final could come in the round of sixteen if 17th seed Angie Kerber finds her way there. If Pliskova reverses the 2016 result, her quarter final match up is expected to be 8th seed Petra Martic.

The pair met three times in 2019, Pliskova winning in Miami and in the Zhengzhou final, before losing in the Roland Garros third round.

I predict Pliskova’s advance to a semi final, having had a rigorous couple of tests along the way, the toughest Petra Martic in the quarters.

Naomi Osaka (4)

Osaka qualified for the Western & Southern Open final, but withdrew because of injury. However, the tournament match play was useful and much of her tennis was promising.

The draw seems kind initially for Osaka - Misaki Doi hasn’t beaten her, and neither has potential second round foe Camila Giorgi. If Alison Van Uytvanck knocks out Giorgi, then Osaka meets someone she has lost in their only meeting. Three years on though, circumstances are different, and a first round loss last week for the Belgian doesn’t augur well.

The third round could be a clash with Anastasija Sevastova (31), who Osaka defeated twice last year. The Americans would hope that CoCo Gauff might spoil that by upsetting the Latvian in the first round and progressing through to set up a replay of the 2019 US Open third round and 2020 Australian Open third round. Gauff lost in New York last year, but gained revenge in Melbourne this year.

Anett Kontaveit (14) took Osaka to three sets in the Western & Southern Open quarters, and is likely to test her again in the round of sixteen at this US Open.

The 0-4 record against the fourth seed is a little flattering to Osaka.

Although Petra Kvitová (6) was defeated by fellow Czech player Marie Bouzkova in the Western & Southern Open, her experience, and area of the draw suggests she should navigate a way to the quarters. The dual Wimbledon champ may have to exact revenge on Bouzkova on her path, plus manage a tough battle with 11th seed Elena Rybakina.

Petra Kvitová to prevail in a quality quarter final against Anett Kontaveit.

Serena Williams (3)

Serena has been busy, playing both in Lexington and New York. As top seed in the Top Seed Open in Kentucky, she bowed out to compatriot Shelby Rogers, and in the relocated Western & Southern Open, it was Maria Sakkari who signed the farewell papers in a brutal round of sixteen encounter.

The US Open draw appears to have given the six times champion an even break, as her first opponent and prospective ones thereafter should see her advance safely into the round of sixteen.

Kristy Ahn, her first round obstacle, had never passed the first round of a major until her round of sixteen effort at last years US Open, but she doesn’t have the weapons to bother Serena, nor does Margarita Gasparyan, who hasn’t beaten her, or Monica Puig, who hasn’t played her. They are in the section which will enable Serena to reach the third round.

Seeded to contest this match is Sloane Stephens (26), but I don’t believe she will reach there based on her lack of form, opening round defeats in Lexington and the Western & Southern Open. Govortsova should be the opponent given her pushing Ons Jabeur to three sets in Lexington.

Serena will find it tougher in the round of sixteen when she should face her recent conqueror, Maria Sakkari (15). Amanda Anisimova (22) may offer some resistance, but probably fall a little short.

Then it is the quarter final and if the seedings are followed, either 2017 US Open finalist Madison Keys (7) or 2020 Australian Open finalist Garbiñe Muguruza (10) will trouble Serena.

Keys lost badly to Ons Jabeur in her only official match since tennis resumed, but she had been playing unofficial stuff to gain match fitness. 

However, I’m picking Muguruza to defeat both Keys and then Serena in a quarter final upset.

Sofia Kenin (2)

Kenin lost her only match in the Western & Southern Open, and is perhaps burdened with the trickiest road to what would for her be a second major in 2020.

First task is to defeat veteran Yanina Wickmayer, a semi finalist here in 2009, but ranked in the 100s these days. With struggling results in qualifying in Palermo and Prague, the Belgian is unlikely to test Kenin, whereas Vera Zvonareva, the 2010 finalist, could be more of a contest in the second round, considering her run at the Western & Southern Open, coming through qualifying to reach the round of sixteen, losing to semi finalist Johanna Konta.

Possible match ups further along include form players:

Third round could be Ons Jabeur (27), quarter finalist at both the Top Seed Open and Western & Southern Open. Round of sixteen could be Elise Mertens (16), finalist at the Prague Open and semi finalist at the Western & Southern Open. Of course Mertens may have to deal with former champion Kim Clijsters or Ekaterina Alexandrova (21) before then.

Whoever makes the quarter final, Kenin or someone else, they must face a player from the Aryna Sabalenka (5) section, and this 

includes unseeded Vika Azarenka, fresh from collecting the Western & Southern Open trophy.

She could be Sabalenka’s second round opponent.

Johanna Konta is a possible round of sixteen clash for Vika or Aryna, but Venus Williams and Karolina Muchova are dangerous.

The quarter final I envisage is Vika Azarenka versus Sofia Kenin with Azarenka winning out.

In summary, my predictions (no Americans in the last four - see me fail !)

Semi finals 

Karolina Pliskova (1) v Petra Kvitová (6)

Garbiñe Muguruza (10) v Victoria Azarenka 

Dark horse : Ons Jabeur (27)