Previewing Roland Garros Mens Singles over the past decade or so has been virtually “who will play Rafa Nadal in the final?”.
And further to that, “which of Federer or Nadal will that be?”.
Now at last, or mores the pity, we have come, after witnessing the end of the Big 3, to the end of the Big 2 era.
Rafa has signalled his retirement - 2024 he says will be his farewell fear - and 2023 won’t have him gracing the clay of Paris.
Normally we’d hand the trophy over to Novak and start talking Wimbledon.
However, the Serb champ has not had a fun time of it in lead up tournaments, and maybe this year’s Clay Grand Slam event is wide open.
That’s polite terminology for “No one has any idea who’s gonna win this thing”.
But for the sake of wanting to do it, I will stick my neck out and throw some names into the mix.
The top two seeds are deserving of those spots, given their seasons to date, and form on the clay to date.
Carlos Alcaraz is the darling of the media and crowds alike, and if he’d just stop his annoying loud grunts after almost every shot he’d be the perfect player to watch for the next decade or so. He has all the shots and mixes his game up with pace, touch, and smarts.
He made the quarters last year before falling to third seed Alexander Zverev, and this year he’s won tournaments in Buenos Aires, Indian Wells, Barcelona and Madrid. He lost a final in Rio and a semi in Miami, and unfortunately missed the Australian Open through injury.
The most recent tournament saw his earliest exit - he lost his second match in Rome to an Italian qualifier.
Alcaraz is drawn to meet Djokovic in the semis, and should meet the two time Roland Garros champion there.
Djokovic has been a little off his normal game since the Australian Open win, and missing the Sunshine Double of Indian Wells and Miami.
Lost to Medvedev in Dubai semis, Musetti in his second match in Monte Carlo, Lajovic in his second match in Banja Luka, and to Rune in quarters in Rome.
The Djokovic habit of lifting in the majors should give him the edge come Paris, and a semi final battle with Alcaraz will be eagerly awaited.
Second seed Daniil Medvedev has had a wonderful 2023, with five tournament wins from six finals. Two titles at Masters 1000 level, including Rome which was his first on clay.
All this is evidence that his Roland Garros record is set to improve.. After four first round exits, Medvedev has a quarter final and fourth round to his credit in the past two years.
Last years runner up Casper Ruud would love to take the next step, and he has Rune in the quarters and Medvedev as a semi final obstacle in the draw if the draw is followed in reality.
Apart from a title in Estoril, this year has been rather lean for the Norwegian, and he would have taken quite a deal from his fortnight in.Rome where he reached the final four, only to fall to Holger Rune in three sets.
Holger Rune is now a legitimate threat in big tournaments, and this should include the majors.
He lost a close final to Rublev in Monte Carlo, won the next week in Munich, and he defeated Djokovic and Ruud en route to the Rome final where he tested Medvedev all the way.
Roland Garros could well see him as sixth seed battling Ruud and Medvedev again.
Others with claims in Paris include Stefanos Tsitsipas, runner up to Djokovic here in 2021. Not such a great year for Stef, but he made the semis in Rome, beaten by eventual winner Medvedev. He is in the Alcaraz quarter as fifth seed. Alcaraz beat him in the Barcelona final in April.
Also eighth seed Jannik Sinner, finalist in Miami and semi finalist in Monte Carlo this year, and Andrey Rublev, winner in Monte Carlo.
Alexander Zverev (22) and Nicolas Jarry are outsiders who may do well.
My prediction:
Quarter finals:
Carlos Alcaraz (1) to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas (5)
Novak Djokovic (3) to defeat Andrey Rublev (7)
Holger Rune (6) to defeat Casper Ruud (4)
Daniil Medvedev (2) to defeat Alexander Zverev (22)
Semi finals:
Carlos Alcaraz (1) to defeat Novak Djokovic (3)
Holger Rune (6) to defeat Daniil Medvedev (2)
Final:
Holger Rune (6) to defeat Carlos Alcaraz (1)
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