Thursday 12 January 2012

Upsets and Injuries leading into Aus Open

As if the Australian Open didn't always offer a 2 week smorgasbord of unpredictability, 2012 is creating further intrigue with form and injury in lead up tournaments playing havoc with early predictions and betting markets.

Firstly the women - the last singles Grand Slam title winner, Samantha Stosur, has had three hit outs in the Australian summer, the last 2 straight sets losses, and hardly the preparation to inspire confidence in her supporters, let alone the player herself.
Andrea Petkovic, the top ten star from Germany has denied us her inimitable victory dances post winning matches due to stress fractures in her back forcing withdrawal from Melbourne.
Kim Clijsters, defending champion, is battling to overcome back problems of her own, though we are assured she will be OK come the 16th.
Serena looks in the best condition ever seen for an Australian Open campaign, and the ankle injury one hopes is but a passing niggle.
The 2 top ranked women in the world bowed out of the Sydney event earlier than expected, Wozniacki at the hands of a very much in form Radwanska who as I write is giving Vika Azarenka a thorough work out as they reach the third set in the semis.
Petra Kvitova, who would have taken the number one ranking should she have won in Sydney, had won all her matches in Australia - 4 in the Hopman Cup and after blitzing Li Na in the first set of their semi seemed on course for a finals berth.  However, Li as defending champ, and Aus Open defending finalist, ground out a solid 3 set win.

So the women's singles trophy in Melbourne could be termed a lottery if we were to take all this at face value - we would be foolish to do so though.

Wozniacki, if her wrist is not as sore as some reports suggest, will be consistent on the Melbourne courts, and the quarters or semis I believe will include her name.
Kvitova is still my pick to win should something disastrous prevent Serena from playing to her best.
I believe that Sam Stosur can reach the 4th round, and from there anything is possible apart from a tournament win, but my dark horse from the tennis I've watched over the last few weeks is Agnieszka Radwanska.  As 8th seed, a quarter final is hers for the taking (only complicated should she draw Serena or Kim in the 4th round) and she is capable of causing real damage once there.

Keep an eye out because my predictions will change by the minute - in fact the way Azarenka is fighting in her semi final in Sydney I just may have pushed her significantly higher in my reckoning, and she was already occupying one of the top level rooms in that reckoning.

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