Sunday 15 January 2012

Last Chance Oz Open Preview and Guesswork - Part Two

Women's tennis has annoyingly taken a back seat to the male version, when for quite some time the depth, fascination and unpredictability has belonged to the girls.
Now I am armed to the teeth with excuses why my selections fail to win WTA tournaments and the ITF run Grand Slam events.  The competition amongst female racquet wielders is as intense and engrossing as I can ever recall.  No one, two or few players holds command at the top of the tree as did in the periods such as Navritolova/Evert, Graf/Seles, Williams/Williams and S. Williams.

Coming into the 2012 Australian Open, one would ordinarily have had Serena as clear favourite on the back of her past record here - 5 times winner and undefeated in her last 14 matches at Melbourne Park.
She has demonstrated her ability to come back from extreme adversity quicker than mere humans, and I for one fear for my life if I don't predict that her 6th title is less than a fortnight away.

What is driving the doubts surrounding the continuance of a Serena dominance?  Well, the emergence of another Czech-born left-hander explains it a little.  Petra Kvitova has risen from last year's Aus Open quarter final break through to claim the  moral if not statistical number one ranking in the world.  A Wimbledon champion and WTA season ending champion, the quietly spoken Kvitova is a contrast to her racket raising racquet work. 

Then there is Kim Clijsters, who when she takes some time off from her gentle caring nature as Mummy Kim, launches deadly assaults on tennis balls and opponents that little daughters should not be seeing.  Whatever Kim's ranking, she proves that Grand Slam titles are winnable, and this title is hers to defend.

Kim defeated a gallant Li Na in the final last year, and the Chinese late bloomer blossomed further on the clay in Paris to officially declare her credentials as a bona fide contender at any Grand Slam tournament.  Li Na has bounced back strongly following a poor second half of 2011 and should she forge a path past Kim in the 4th round may have Caroline Wozniacki with which to contend in the quarters. (Wozniacki fell to Li Na in the semis last year)

It was Vika Azarenka who denied Li Na successive Sydney International victories this week, and this year may well be the time for the Belarusian to make some finals at grand Slam events.  The fans have waiting for awhile now, and Vika has been screaming more than everyone for it to happen. (I just wish she would tone down those screams a little when she sets foot on the court - 100% would suffice)
It is not an easy quarter of the draw, with the Polish player of the moment Agnieszka Radwanska expected to be waiting as opponent number 5 when quarter finals begin.

I am predicting a replay of the Sydney final in the semi final from the top half of the draw - Li Na to battle Vika Azarenka.

The bottom half of the draw provides more reason for the intrigue in women's tennis.  In addition to Petra Kvitova, we have Maria Sharapova, whose injury interrupted career has still furnished her trophy cabinet with silverware galore - including 3 Grand Slam titles - the last of those at Melbourne Park 4 years ago.  2011 proved once more that she has the weapons to mount serious challenges to any player on any given day, provided that she remembers to bring her serve with her.

Marion Bartoli and Sam Stosur both finished 2011 in the top ten and of course Sam won the final Grand Slam title of the year in New York.  The fact that she, Li Na and Petra Kvitova were debut winners of GS titles in the one year endorses the view that the women's game is truly alive and thriving, and should be given universal due credit, and not put up with the "support act" dismissal of some media outlets.  Thankfully, that dinosaur mentality is diminishing sharply.

Vera Zvonareva has been a constant in the top ten for quite some time and her efforts at the highest level deserve praise.  Her reward unfortunately is a 4th round encounter, should both players make it that far, with Serena Williams.  I know that Vera was so looking forward to a quarter final clash with another Russian Maria Sharapova, but I'm afraid that an American will spoil that party.  Not that Maria is assured that spot - her screams of delight may very well turn to screams of despair if Sabine Lisicki turns on some of her Wimbledon form, or if Sveta Kuznetsova can hop in her time machine back to 2009 and bring back some of that tennis.

Although Bartoli has presented a better case for consideration this summer than Samatha Stosur, I do feel that the Australian can overcome her historical under performance here, just as she did in New York last year.  Not to the same extent, because her win over Bartoli will be her last in the 2012 Aus Open.  Kvitova will sign Stosur's exit papers as she did in 2011.

In fact it will be a semi final to behold - Petra Kvitova the future of tennis against Serena Williams the present and quite a bit of the past of tennis.

January 28 will be Serena Williams day, her sixth Australian Open clinched with her 21st win in succession here.  Her worthy opponent will have importantly made her first Grand Slam final, and expect Victoria Azarenka to battle for the number one ranking all year long.     

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