2024 US Open Men’s Singles
As with the women, my predictions for men’s singles at this year’s US Open depend on recent and current form, US Open records, other Grand Slam tournament records, and finally the draw.
The following players are most prominent in my eyes:
Carlos Alcaraz - 2024 Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion
Jannik Sinner - world number one
Novak Djokovic - reigning champion
Alexander Zverev - 2020 US Open finalist
Casper Ruud - 2022 US Open finalist
Carlos Alcaraz (3), after defeating Djokovic at Wimbledon, won silver at the 2024 Olympics, losing to Djokovic in the final.
He next lost to Gaël Monfils in his first match at Cincinnati.
He should be primed though, for a good shot at major number three in 2024.
He will clear through qualifier Li Tu in round one, and probably Denis Shapovalov in the next.
Third round opponent is seeded to be Jack Draper (25), who defeated Alcaraz at Queens Club in June.
Not so lucky this time.
Sebastian Korda (16) is scheduled to meet Alcaraz in the round of sixteen.
Korda has a less than ideal US Open record, and Alcaraz defeated him in the Roland Garros third round this year.
He will be the loser again to Alcaraz should they meet.
Alex de Minaur (10) could be a quarter finalist, even though he is seeded to lose to Hubert Hurkacz (7) before then.
Hurkacz has never been past the second round in New York in six attempts.
de Minaur won’t have the equipment to disable Alcaraz as the Spaniard waltzes into the semis.
Jannik Sinner (1) has won the 2024 Australian Open, and is prepared to add a second hard court major to his trophy cabinet.
The Cincinnati title was a perfect entree to Flushing Meadows, and two Americans - Mackenzie McDonald and and Alex Michelsen (who just lost the final in Winston-Salem) will be his first victims on a path through the US Open draw.
Nicolas Jarry (26) could be the third round prey, unless unseeded Stan Wawrinka (2018 champion) has his say.
Either won’t bother Sinner. He beat Wawrinka three times last year, including third round at the US Open.
Round of sixteen should be the third American victim - Tommy Paul (14) - who made it to this stage last year.
Sinner beat him in the lead up Canada tournament last year, and will stop Tommy’s progress here this year.
Daniil Medvedev (5) is seeded to meet Sinner in the quarters, but the Russian’s form is below what he’d expect.
Since his round of sixteen Olympics loss, he has failed to win opening matches in Montreal and Cincinnati.
Either Stefanos Tsitsipas (11) or Felix Auger-Aliassime (19) may cause him issues.
Sinner should account for whoever turns up from that section, and complete a semi final match up with Alcaraz.
Novak Djokovic (2) is still a viable threat in Grand Slam tournaments, although his basket remains empty so far this year.
However, an Olympic gold medal, defeating Alcaraz in the final, has given hope for a fifth US Open title.
Albot and Struff will be good warm up wins before a likely third round clash with Alexei Popyrin, who recently won his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Montreal.
Djokovic has beaten Popyrin twice this year - at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
Ben Shelton (13) was a surprise semi finalist at last year’s US Open, and he should be the round of sixteen opposition for Djokovic this year.
It was Djokovic who knocked out Shelton in that semi in 2023, and he will end the young American’s run this year.
Andrey Rublev has had a chequered 2024, but he was a quarter finalist at the 2023 US Open, and his draw this year is enough to grant him a quarter final again.
Djokovic has won the last four matches against Rublev, including three in 2023. Enough evidence to pick him for advancement to a semi final.
Alexander Zverev (4) has performed well enough this year, without collecting a winners trophy. Annoyingly so for the big serving German.
He must be considered amongst those likely to be still around well into the second week, given his weapons.
Zverev begins with a win over fellow countryman and lucky loser Maximilian Marterer.
Then it’s hard to pick from a section of the draw including Adam Walton, Alexandre Müller, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Sebastian Ofner.
Zverev either hasn’t lost to, or hasn’t yet met any of them in a match.
Third round seeded opponent is Francisco Cerundolo (29), and the only time Zverev played him was in Madrid this year, where he lost.
That was on clay. Result here will be different.
Round of sixteen against Holger Rune (15).
Zverev has two wins over Rune this year - round of sixteen at Roland Garros and round of sixteen in Cincinnati.
Another win over Rune will send Zverev into the US Open quarters.
Casper Ruud (8) won the Geneva and Barcelona tournaments this year, and was semi finalist at Roland Garros.
However, he has struggled since then.
Prospects of a revival in New York are real, and start with first round victory over qualifier Bu Yunchaokete.
A possible challenge from Gaël Monfils comes in round two, and Alexander Bublik (27) is expected in the third round.
Ruud beat Monfils in the 2024 Indian Wells round of sixteen, and he has won six of seven matches against Bublik.
Taylor Fritz (12) was a quarter finalist at last year’s US Open, but he hasn’t beaten Ruud in two attempts, including the round of sixteen at this year’s Roland Garros.
Ruud, I believe, will close out Fritz in the round of sixteen in Flushing Meadows 2024.
Predictions:
Quarter Final
Alexander Zverev (4) to defeat Casper Ruud (8)
Semi Finals
Carlos Alcaraz (3) to defeat Jannik Sinner (1)
Novak Djokovic (2) to defeat Alexander Zverev (4)
Carlos Alcaraz (3) to defeat Novak Djokovic (2) in the final
