The depth of womens tennis has grown over the past several years, and is set to remain strong well into the future.
Starting at the top with the number one seed and her quarter. Ashleigh Barty carries Australia on her shoulders again this year, but as the top seed, and even more pressure. The lead up has been similar - scratchy in the first outing in Brisbane, but gathering form in Adelaide as she did in Sydney 2019, making the final on both occasions. Quarter final AO exit courtesy of eventual finalist Kvitova last year, and the draw has those two seeded to meet again at the same point in the tournament.
Barty must negotiate an interesting route to the final eight, with likely third round opponent Elena Rybakina. Interestingly, both made finals today, Hobart saw a win for Rybakina who also was a finalist in Shenzhen.
Beyond that is the round of sixteen, where Alison Riske may await, the American who saw Barty exit Wimbledon last year. If not Riske, it could be either Petra Martic or Barty’s doubles partner this AO in Julia Goerges.
Form suggests Barty can repeat and reach the quarter final competition.
Kvitova faces compatriot Katerina Siniakova in her opener, a tester no doubt, but only that, and a third round meeting with in form Ekaterina Alexandrova, winner in Shenzhen and in a 125K level event earlier. Organisers are hoping for a fourth round clash between Kvitova and Madison Keys, which would reprise the semi final from Brisbane last week. Keys looks set for that match as her section poses little trouble except perhaps Maria Sakkari.
For me, a quarter final between Barty and not sure yet - Keys or Kvitova.
Scrolling down, we move into a killer quarter - the one drawn by the defending champion Naomi Osaka. As third seed, Osaka should pass through the first couple of rounds unscathed. And the draw suggests Czech veteran Barbora Strycova in the third round. However, lurking in that area are unseeded Venus Williams and CoCo Gauff, the oldest and youngest in the draw respectively. They meet in the first round, with Venus having no match practice and CoCo notional favourite. Either could cause problems and eventually be the Osaka third round opposition.
Osaka still progresses in my estimation. Her Brisbane form is important.
To reach the quarter final, a win over either Sloane Stephens or Sofia Kenin, the seeded players in their pocket of the draw would appear necessary, but Stephens is so desperately out of touch, I can’t see her past the first round against unseeded Zhang Shuai, who just made the Hobart final, losing to Rybakina. Osaka should play and conquer Kenin.
And the quarter final opponent will be Serena Williams - I haven’t a need to look at the draw further than the eighth seed. My confidence stems from her victory in Auckland, her willingness to play doubles there, no recovery issues, the spring in her step, and the fact that she remains the best when at her best. Reputation intimidates and there is no player in the fifteen in her section having the ammunition or realistic belief that they can hurt a determined Serena. Except for the seriously talented Dayana Yastremska, who is in the Adelaide final as we speak. This precocious teenager has the potential to damage the top players and is a fourth round pick for me.
She will provide Serena with the contest required for the Osaka quarter final.
The next quarter is that belonging to Simona Halep, finalist here in an epic 2018 encounter. Americans stand in the Romanian’s early run, with Jennifer Brady first up. Brady featured prominently in Brisbane, knocking over Barty to reach the quarters. Shouldn’t bother Halep here on the bigger stage. Danielle Collins represents a higher hurdle though in a likely third round clash. A semi finalist last year, Collins destroyed Svitolina in Brisbane, took Barty to the brink in the Adelaide semis, and has a belief that she can defeat the very best.
Halep for me has the weapons and courage to fend off this challenge should it arise.
Elise Mertens, 16th seed, should be the final piece to be taken en route to the quarter final, but unseeded Heather Watson, semi finalist in Hobart, is one to watch.
Irrespective, Halep into the quarters.
Belinda Bencic is seeded to meet Halep there but I can’t see that happening based on poor lead up form and the players in her section. Issues with Kudermetova or Kontaveit before the fourth round where it could be Donna Vekić or Aryna Sabalenka, both of whom have struck early with good results.
I predict a Halep v Sabalenka quarter final.
And winner of the Brisbane International for a second successive year, Karolina Pliskova, world number two, is set to travel a long way, just as she did last year when she defeated Serena Williams to make the final four.
Her quarter isn’t one she would have chosen herself. Kiki Mladenovic in the first round, heroine of the Fed Cup final, and former top ten player, not exactly a free pass. However, form suggests a win. Other players keen to advance from this quarter include unseeded Jessica Pegula, finalist in Auckland (beaten by Serena), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (pushed Barty to the limit in Adelaide), Marketa Vondrousova, 2019 Roland Garros finalist and Angie Kerber, 2016 AO champion and 2018 semi finalist.
If Kerber can recover from her injury, I feel that she will be the round of sixteen opponent for Pliskova.
The final quarter includes fifth seed Elina Svitolina, quarter finalist from last year. She should float through to the third round ok, but beware unseeded and unpredictable dual major winner Garbiñe Muguruza. If Svitolina makes the fourth round she is drawn to play Kiki Bertens, but young American Amanda Anisimova could shock everyone. I’m going for the upset and predicting Anisimova to not only defeat Bertens but ride the momentum and reach the quarters after knocking out Svitolina.
So in summary
Quarter finals
Ashleigh Barty (1) to defeat Madison Keys (10)
Serena Williams (8) to defeat Naomi Osaka (3)
Simona Halep (4) to defeat Aryna Sabalenka (11)
Karolina Pliskova (2) to defeat Amanda Anisimova (21)
A lot of guessing !
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