Sunday 14 January 2018

Federer aiming for 20th GS title

Tomorrow the Australian Open commences and the opening men’s match on Rod Laver Arena will feature third seed Grigor Dimitrov against a qualifier and at night it will be top seed Rafa Nadal on court battling Victor Estrella Burgos from the Dominican Republic.

Neither Grigor or Rafa should have problems making the second round but in my preview the draw will become interesting a little later for the two.

Rafa has potentially Damir Dzumhur (28) or Diego Schwartzman (24) in round three, neither posing a big threat.

Round four could pose the first test for the reigning Roland Garros and US Open champion.

Big serving American John Isner (16) lurks in this part of the draw, as does unseeded Alexandr Dolgopolov.

However both have poor Melbourne history, Isner never having passed the fourth round and Dolgopolov making the quarters in 2011 but skittled early ever since.

The Aussies in this section of Nadal’s journey will struggle to pass their openers - Matthew Ebden must return serve at his best against Isner and John Millman has a tough one against Borna Coric.

Nadal is seeded to meet Marin Cilic (6) in a quarter final and that should occur.

Ciclic must first navigate through likely opponents Pablo Cuevas (31) in the third round, and another Pablo - Carreno Busta in the fourth round.

Carreno Busta won the Kooyong Classic but it was only an exhibition. He could easily be facing unseeded French veteran Gilles Simon who has held aloft the trophy in Pune, beating the top three seeds, in January this year.

Grigor Dimitrov (3) is the semi final opponent drawn to fight Nadal on court this year and his record is good in the Australian summer.

In 2017 he won in Brisbane and was a losing finalist this year.

Semi finals at last years Aus Open.

He may find trouble this year in the fourth round where he should meet Nick Kyrgios (17), the man who beat him in Brisbane 2018.

Of course Nick needs to reach that match and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (15) probably stands in his way.

Teenager Denis Shapovalov, although ranked only 51, is one to watch in this section of the draw, rated highly by his fellow players.

Kevin Anderson (11) and Jack Sock (8) are possible dangers in Grigor’s quarter.

In the bottom half second seed Roger Federer has a relatively soft start on paper, 49th ranked Aljaz Bedene his first opponent.

Improving Jan-Lennard Struff would likely be next before a possible match up with Richard Gasquet (29).

Shouldn’t pose a problem for Roger as he only lost twice to the Frenchman - in 2011 and 2005.

Sam Querrey (13) or Milos Raonic (22) may be fourth round hurdles for the defending champion but again Federer seems to be ahead on form and history.

Juan Martin del Potro (12) and David Goffin (7) are the gravest threats to Roger in his quarter - in this quality section is Alex de Minaur, Australia’s latest sensation, but he faces a deadly first round battle with Tomas Berdych (19).

Young German star Sascha Zverev (4) is seeded to play Federer in the semis - this time last year he was ranked 24 and lost in the third round.

Despite a remarkable rise in the world rankings, and success against top players, including Federer, his performance at the majors has been average -in 2017 first round exit at Roland Garros, second round at US Open- best effort round of sixteen on the grass at Wimbledon.

And his quarter is stacked with problems - a returning Novak Djokovic (14) probably the greatest - if both Zverev and the Djoker win their first three matches they will clash in a round of sixteen match. One has failed to reach a Grand Slam quarter final, the other has won six times in Melbourne.

Other possible hurdles for Zverev are his brother Mischa, Auckland winner Roberto Bautista Agut, former champion Stan Wawrinka (9) and Dominic Thiem (5) and Gaël Monfils, the last two finalist and winner in Doha respectively this year.

When delving through all the facts and form I have predicted the following:

Semi finals

Rafa Nadal (1) v Nick Kyrgios (17)

Novak Djokovic (14) v Roger Federer (2)

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