Saturday, 7 May 2016

Halep v Cibulkova - Madrid finalists

Men's quarter finals in Madrid and of the favoured four, only one was facing an unseeded player.  So it was expected that Nadal should have the easier path to a semi final berth.  After winning the first seven games, in the process capturing the opening set 6-0 against a stunned Joao Sousa, Rafa was working to script perfectly.  However the Portuguese pride snapped Sousa into action and he slowly pushed himself into second set contention, matching service holds with the fifth seed until he shocked Rafa and all of Spain by breaking serve to lead 5-4 and proceed to level the match at 0-6 6-4.
Eventually Nadal set things back to normal, breaking Sousa in the eighth game of the third set and then serving out the match, booking his spot in the semi finals.

Nadal will need to out point Andy Murray for a chance to win the title following the second seed's comprehensive dismissal of Tomas Berdych 6-3 6-2.  Although Murray's first serve percentage was less than acceptable, he won all but two points for the match when the first delivery was accurate and 70 % of points relying on a second serve.  The serving dominance was the basis for locking Berdych out of the match and will provide Andy with Aplenty of confidence for the Nadal semi.

Novak Djokovic won his seventh successive encounter with Milos Raonic and at no stage did the match ever look like going in a direction other than Serbia bound.  The returning precision, even off some of the biggest serves that the Canadian could offer, was classic Djokovic and mesmerising for those in attendance, including Milos.

For quite a while it appeared that Nick Kyrgios was ready for a semi final spot as he had taken the opening set in a close tie break from sixth seed Kei Nishikori and was the one in set two looking more likely to force a break.  However each time Nick came close it was if Kei was teasing and even at 5-6 with Kyrgios on more than one occasion just a whisker away from match point, Nishikori stood firm.

The disappointment at not managing to break through and win the match at that point was huge for Kyrgios and the momentum shift was in like proportion.  Nishikori raced through the tie break for the loss of a single point and the match was even.  Even only on the scoreboard though because Nick was a beaten man.  His serve was broken straight away in the decider and 0-2 quickly turned into a double service break and suddenly the Australian was down 1-5 with Nishikori serving for the match.  He did comfortably.

A sad finish for Nick's tournament considering he held the upper hand for almost two sets, but he will learn from the experience, and he did lose to a quality opponent who never was far from the contest, even when down a set.

Djokovic v Nishikori is the other of the semis and promises a plethora of quality ground strokes and wonderful rallies.

The two women's semi finals were not much value for the spectators.

Dominika Cibulkova smashed the hopes of qualifier Louisa Chirico 6-1 6-1 in a reality check which shouldn't diminish the great tournament which the American experienced.  Reaching the semi final at this early career point is an outstanding achievement.
For Domi, right from the first round upset of Aga Radwanska, she has fought hard, knowing that the draw had opened wide for her.  Now she is in the final with a big chance of taking out her second and by far most prestigious event of the year.

Simona Halep, for three games, was in a close tussle with Sam Stosur who led 2-1 on serve.  Then Sam must have decided to leave, because Simona won the next 11 games which was sufficient for the chair umpire to call an end to what was happening.  I can't call it a match because there was only one person participating in a contest.  Stosur was just hitting tennis balls, and occasionally some would land in the court and on the other side of the net.  Whether that was intentional is difficult to judge.  Set two had 30 points on offer and Stosur won 6.

This was a disgrace, and further evidence of just how far apart the highs and lows of the Australian's tennis game are these days.
It is hard to measure how well Halep actually played, but she is still the favourite to win the title in what should be an entertaining final, with this time opposition provided.

Friday, 6 May 2016

Novak / Rafa final closer but Kyrgios dangerous

In Madrid the women's semi finalists have been determined.  Dominika Cibulkova is there, following her victory over Romania's Sorana Cirstea.  It took three sets, but so did all of the other three wins of Cibulkova this tournament, the last three with her having dropped the opening set.
The Slovakian will not want to risk that against her surprise semi final opponent Louisa Chirico.  The 130th ranked American won her way through qualifying, defeated Monica Niculescu and Ana Ivanovic in the first two rounds (ranked 31 and 17 respectively in the world) before luck fell her way with Azarenka pulling out of the event through injury.  

Still rated as the underdog against Dasha Gavrilova, herself having eliminated seeds Kvitova and Svitolina,  Chirico defied everyone to impressively score a straight sets win over the 39th ranked Australian.  The 19 year old is incredibly only one win from the final in Madrid, an event classified in importance the level immediately below the four Grand Slam tournaments.

Simona Halep managed to overcome Irina-Camelia  Begu in a battle of two more Romanians in the third of the quarter finals, despite an incomprehensible disappearance in set two.  After a commanding 6-3 opening and preceding an even more imposing 6-1 close out, the sixth seed's game fell apart in set two.  Both girls had a first serve % of 73, but while Begu was winning 91 % of points when her first serve was hitting the mark, Halep was winning a lowly 31 %.  Simona won only 11 points for the set, translating into zero games.
The ability to come back from the second set debacle so strongly speaks volumes for Halep's mental strength as much as her tennis prowess and she will be tough opposition for Sam Stosur in clearly the higher quality semi.

Sam began her quarter final relieved no doubt that Madison Keys had been upset by the fourth Romanian to make the quarter finals, 134th ranked Patricia Maria Tig.  This was the second American victim in a row for Tig, having destroyed 16th seed Sloane Stephen's chances in the second round.  Wary too was Stosur, having seen and heard the destruction of nearly all the pre tournament favourites, leaving her now as many peoples pick to win the title.

Based on her 6-3 6-4 win over Tig, Sam would have to be confident of her chances against Halep as this was a most consistent performance over the whole match.  The serve, upon which she relies, was for once reliable throughout and was never broken.  The first serve percentage was particularly impressive in the second set, and Stosur broke Tig's serve once in each set, enough to win the match.

Cibulkova is capable of a surprise as we have seen this week, but I suspect that the winner of the Madrid title will come from the Halep / Stosur semi final.

Men's action has progressed to the quarter finals, and once again the match of the day featured Nick Kyrgios.  On this occasion it wasn't a best serve contest, because the Australian also needed to find a method to combat the natural clay court skills of Pablo Cuevas.  Sure, a big serve would take him to a certain point but he needed more variety to be able to match the Argentine in the many searching rallies which would occur.  

Despite serving seven aces, Kyrgios in set one had to share both serving and returning honours with Cuevas.  The statistics were remarkably similar in several areas and based on that alone it came as no surprise that a tie break was necessary.  More significant than raw numbers was the exhibition on court which was particularly even, with both players finding it impossible to break serve.
Kyrgios finally snapped the deadlock with a 7 points to 5 win in the tie break, his third successive set in the tournament decided in such a fashion, all in his favour.

Cuevas struck back immediately, breaking the previously impeccable Kyrgios serve in the opening game of set two.  That break was held throughout an entertaining set in which Cuevas won 81 % of points on his serve and never faced a break point.  6-4 and the match was level.

Despite dropping his serve in the first game for the second set in a row, Kyrgios regrouped to level at 1-1 and from there lifted his game to a point where he dictated terms on most occasions, and in the eighth game, trailing 3-4, the rock solid Cuevas game finally cracked under the combined force of consistent backhand power and placement from Kyrgios and a booming Aussie forehand when required. 
0-40 became 30-40 with two errant Kyrgios shots, but the break came on the end of a massive down the line forehand with which no human, or group of humans, could have dealt.
A seriously calm and maturing Australian dealt with some doubtful calls without any histrionics in the middle of serving out the match 7-6 (5) 4-6 6-3 to reach a quarter final where he will need to play even better than he has to match the sixth seed Kei Nishikori.
Nishikori won his quarter final spot following a straight sets victory over Richard Gasquet.

Other quarter finalists include Novak Djokovic who demolished Bautista Agut 6-2 6-1, reminding Milos Raonic how damn good he is ahead of their upcoming match which was created thanks to the Canadian's elimination of 7th seed Tsonga in two sets.

Eighth seed Tomas Berdych is through after two extremely close sets with ninth seed David Ferrer.  His win has earned a meeting with second seed and defending champion Andy Murray who had little trouble sending Gilles Simon back to France for the cost of just six games.

Rafa Nadal has yet to face a seeded player, and he accounted for Sam Querrey in the third round.  His quarter final opponent is Joao Sousa from Portugal - you guessed it, unseeded.  He is however ranked 26 and so no mug with a racquet.  He defeated Jack Sock and will be just as much a test for Nadal as a match unfit Federer would have been had he played the tournament and made it this far.

Thursday, 5 May 2016

Halep new favourite in Madrid

Here was I, ready to describe the wonderful quarter final played between the two top remaining seeds in Madrid, Vika Azarenka and Petra Kvitova, and neither of them made it beyond the third round.

Petra was upset by Aussie Dasha Gavrilova, and in just two sets.  Not for the first time this year had Dasha turned Petra's hopes into tatters.  She did likewise at the Aus Open during her best run of success this year.  The 39th ranked player will be hoping Madrid kick starts a rich vein of form leading into Roland Garros and Wimbledon. 

Vika just handed a walkover to a shocked but delighted 19 year old American qualifier, Louisa Chirico, ranked 130 in the world.  Louisa's claim to a little fame was her win over top ten player Lucie Safarova in Charleston in April.  However at that point Lucie couldn't manage a win over her pet dog,  let alone a tour tennis player.
Vika's withdrawal was due to a back injury which she must have caught from Federer.   Hopefully she has made the wise call early enough to prevent another long stint off the court, because Vika at present is the best player on tour and fully deserves a shot at reclaiming the number one ranking to statistically confirm her position.

Now that the top half of the women's draw is free of any seeds, we are guaranteed at least one unseeded finalist, and it could well come from a probable semi final between Dominika Cibulkova and Dasha Gavrilova.  After all, Cibulkova kicked out the top seed first up, and will start favourite in her quarter final against Sorana Cirstea.  Gavrilova just beat the defending champion and faces a qualifier who made the quarter final without hitting a tennis ball. 

Simona Halep looms as the best bet for a finals berth from the other half of the draw, following her convincing win over Timea Bacsinszky in the third round.  As often happens, the matches with the most potential to be memorable, such as this one, can turn into fizzers.  Halep's 6-2 6-3 thrashing of the Swiss 10th seed was disappointing for almost everyone, but 6th Simona was rather happy with things.

Carla Suarez Navarro would have been the second of the two remaining seeds in the draw, but after taking the opening set against Sam Stosur, she lost her way and the Australian won through to the quarter finals 4-6 6-2 6-3.  Halep is the sole seed left in the final 8 and the only realistic threat to her making the final are Stosur and maybe the unpredictably dangerous Madison Keys. (At writing just starting her third round match)

The men's draw was fairly safe from drama with one major exception and that was the big serving entertaining clash between fourth seed Stan Wawrinka and the excitement machine Nick Kyrgios.  The young Aussie last year in this event knocked over another Swiss player - you may have heard of him in dispatches; goes by the name Federer.  However, occasional big name upsets have this year been replaced by consistency and ranking rises to the point where Kyrgios is being written about for on court feats instead of immature actions. 

The two certainly served up a storm.  In the opening set Stan gave Nick nothing - no break point opportunities whatsoever.  Nick relied on his serve to save the four break points that Stan managed to scrape together and a tie break had to separate things.  The breaker threatened to go forever before the unseeded Australian put a halt to proceedings, 9 points to 7, and the set was his 7-6.

Riding the wave of momentum Kyrgios gave the crowd one of his serving exhibitions in set two, which was slightly unfair to Stan as his deliveries were still high quality.  Neither had break points to save, so another tie break was required, but with stats like Nick's not even the tie break was going to give Stan a chance.

81 % of first serves in play.  24 points won from his 25 first serves in play.  5 points won from the 6 second serves required.
Nick won 6 points off Stan's serve for the set, enough of those in the tie break to take it 7 points to 2 and win a quality match 7-6 (7) 7-6 (2).
Nicks third round opponent was looking as though it would be Gael Monfils after the 13th seed was a set to the good, but unseeded Pablo Cuevas used his clay expertise to win the second set and force a decider.  A third set tie break went the way of the Argentine, and ranked 27 he will be more than a handful for Nick.

Wednesday, 4 May 2016

Madrid: Murray, Nadal post wins first up

Second round matches in the men's draw in Madrid have commenced and that means that the eight top seeded players who had a bye in the first round have started dusting off their racquets for the first time.  Murray and Nadal were the first, and they successfully booked third round spots,  Murray having to win in three sets against Stepanek to do so.

Others to win second round matches were Raonic and Gasquet.  First round winners included seeds Monfils and Bautista Agut, while a number of those to do well in tournaments last week failed to carry that form into Spain.

Estoril champ Nicolas Almagro was dumped by Borna Coric 6-2 6-2.  Munich winner Philipp Kohlschreiber lost in a third set tie break to Pablo Cuevas.  Runner up in Munich, Dominic Thiem, 14th seed, lost to Juan Martin Del Potro.
Pablo Carreno Busta and Grigor Dimitrov, runners up in Estoril and Istanbul respectively, drew one another in Madrid's first round, and Dimitrov exited Spain as a result.

Women's seeds Halep, Suarez Navarro and Bacsinsky all progressed to the third round, while 11th seed Safarova wasn't allowed to continue her good form from the Prague title, having to withdraw before her scheduled match against Stosur.  Sam must be blessed as this is the second walkover in as many tournaments of which she has been the beneficiary.

Dominika Cibulkova, the slayer of top seed Radwanska in round one, was almost out for the count with France's Caroline Garcia winning 26 points to 12 in a first set 6-0 whitewash.  However the typical fight back expected from the Slovakian slugger occurred and Domi prevailed 0-6 6-3 6-4.    

Germany's Laura Siegemund continued her purple patch by reaching the third round, victor in three sets over veteran and fellow German Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.

Tomorrow, the tournament begins for several big names including the biggest Djokovic, along with co-stars Wawrinka, Tsonga and Nishikori.  What of Federer ?  Well he could possibly have been a quarter final obstacle for Nadal, but he has succumbed to his back injury and withdrawn from the tournament.  Points wise he won't drop much, as last year he lost early to Kyrgios, but doubts must be building as to his ability to cope with the rigours of Roland Garros starting in a few weeks time.

However despite no Roger there is plenty on offer - more to enjoy from Azarenka, Kvitova and Suarez Navarro as they strut their stuff once again, and also on display tomorrow Simona Halep v Timea Bacsinsky in potentially one of the matches of Madrid so far.

Tuesday, 3 May 2016

Madrid WTA - Seeds 1 2 3 Gone !

Madrid, the Spanish capital, is hosting in tandem both the ATP Masters event where Andy Murray defends his title, and the WTA Premier Mandatory tournament won last year by Petra Kvitova for a second time, and all the tennis world is focussed closely as the biggest names are here to battle.

But before we talk Spain there are some results from last week which need noting.  In Istanbul unseeded Diego Schwartzman won his final against second seed Grigor Dimitrov, to cap off a terrific tournament in which he defeated the top two seeds.  He won't be playing in Madrid because his ranking doesn't allow direct entry and he missed qualifying because he was busy winning the Istanbul title.  I somehow think he won't be too unhappy.

Another unseeded player, Nicolas Almagro, won the Estoril title, defeating fellow Spaniard and eighth seed Pablo Carrena Busta.  Almagro will play in Madrid thanks to being blessed with a wildcard.

Philipp Kohlschreiber won in Munich again,  his third triumph there, victorious over Austrian Dominic Thiem.  Both are carrying good form into Madrid.

Now to Madrid itself and only very early there is plenty to talk about, notably with the women's draw.
Fourth seed Vika Azarenka is the highest remaining ranked player after just the second round, and the Belarusian must be seriously looking at adding another big title to her US double earlier in the season.
So how did her major rivals disappear?
Top seed Aga Radwanska lost to Dominika Cibulkova in a three setter where serve was broken 19 times out of 31.  It was a tougher than normal first round assignment for Aga but given the inconsistent form of the 2014 Aus Open finalist this year, and Radwanska's great run, a hard fought win was still expected for the world number two.  Instead an incredible first serve percentage in set one for Cibulkova limited Aga's chances to break, and while she twice managed to do so, the Slovakian went one better to build a 6-4 advantage.
Aga struck back, winning the second set tie break 7 points to 3, but the decider was all Dominika 6-3 and she registered her best win of 2016.

Number two seed and Aus Open champ Angie Kerber was another first round casualty, falling to Czech player Barbora Strycova and badly 6-4 6-2.  Strycova avenged her 1-6 1-6 loss to Kerber in Miami and Angie's fond memories of her recent Stuttgart win were squashed almost irreparably with this loss.  Any shock should be toned down when considering Barbora's form this year - finalist in Dubai, quarters in Prague, round of sixteen in Aus Open and Indian Wells - 17-10 win/loss record. (PS Madison Keys disposed of Strycova in the next round) 

After safely negotiating her way past first round opponent Anna Schmiedlova, Spanish hope third seed Garbine Muguruza stumbled and fell at her next jump.  Romanian Irina-Camelia Begu survived the loss of set one but battled successfully through a second set tie break and won the decider decisively 6-3.

Other seeds to depart in round one were numbers 7 and 9 Roberta Vinci and Sveta Kuznetsova respectively.  Round two farewelled Ana Ivanovic (14), Elina Svitolina (12), Karolina Pliskova (13) and Sloane Stephens (16).

The two highest seeds left - Vika Azarenka and Petra Kvitova - are drawn to play each other in a quarter final.  Reigning title holder Petra against hottest player on tour - should be a great one.

Not much happening of note in the men's draw yet except the dumping of 12th seed David Goffin by qualifier Lucas Pouille who is putting together some good results in this part of 2016.

Sunday, 1 May 2016

Safarova seals Prague title

As predicted Lucie Safarova captured the WTA title in Prague, capping off the perfect comeback to form in readiness for the big clay tournaments, beginning with Madrid this week.  The Spanish draw requires Lucie to play Sam Stosur in the second round if both win their first round matches.  Not the brightest prospect for the Queenslander who was only hours ago the loser to Safarova in the Prague final.

At one stage in Sam's career she had a unique record of not losing a match if she won the first set.  This year it has turned around so that perversely on many occasions her matches are doomed if she opens with set one success.  The script was followed with an excellent 6-3 performance in set one of the Prague final seemingly positioning the fourth seed for a likely victory.  Then the collapse, just as we'd witnessed recently in both Fed Cup matches against the USA.  6-1 to Safarova in the second set, the Stosur first serve unreliable to the same extent as it had been the basis for first set dominance.

The deciding set was won 6-4 by Safarova, but it wasn't at all close.  First serve percentages were 70 for Safarova and 42 for Stosur.  Lucie won 78 % of points when serving, Sam just 58 %.  Returning stats were just as stark.  A fine win for Safarova, and despite a disappointing end a good tournament for Stosur as well.

Bad news for another Aussie, Nick Kyrgios, whose Estoril dream became a nightmare at the hands of unseeded Nicolas Almagro.  The wily clay courter with all his experience on the surface eliminated the second seed in their semi final as methodically as he had the seeds in his two previous matches.  Clearly overall rankings mean little when dealing with quality clay court operators.  Almagro has played about two thirds of his career matches on clay and all of his twelve titles have come on the surface.

It will be an all Spanish final in Portugal as eighth seed Pablo Carreno Busta continued his passion for dismissing seeded French players by tossing out third seed Benoit Paire.  Don't discount his chances against Almagro.

Timea Bacsinszky thrashed qualifier Marina Erakovic in the Rabat final to nobody's surprise, and expect more to come from the Swiss player as her career evolves into what I believe will be a consistent top ten appearance.

Alexander Zverev threatened to oust third seed and one of the new generation, Dominic Thiem, after winning the first set, but Thiem displayed more poise and delivered the goods when it mattered, comfortably accounting for the German 6-2 6-3 in the second and third to win a spot in the final.
He will play Phillip Kohlschreiber, so the German crowd will have a home player to cheer on.  The fourth seed easily downed Italy's Fabio Fognini and is playing high calibre tennis, sufficient to pose a real headache for the Austrian who remains the logical favourite.

Istanbul sees Grigor Dimitrov, number two seed, in the final following two tie break wins over Ivo Karlovic.  The shock is not winning the tie breaks, but winning them 7-0 and 7-2 against the huge serving Croatian.  Such one sided finishes to tight sets.

Dimitrov should have few hurdles to clear in a final facing unseeded Argentine Diego Schwartzman, but that is without taking account of Diego fixing up both top seed Tomic and most recently fourth seed Delbonis in a fine semi final performance.
After narrowly losing the opening set in a tie breaker, Schwartzman blew away Delbonis with a great serving display in the final two sets.

Saturday, 30 April 2016

Kyrgios and Zverev serve it up

Things are warming up in Prague, but there was no warm up for Sam Stosur in her scheduled semi final with Sveta Kuznetsova as the Russian didn't show.  An abdominal injury was the official reason and it presented a free ticket for Stosur to slip into a final, one for which not many had predicted her being present a week ago.

While the fourth seeded Aussie lazed around the Czech capital, her opponent in the final was being decided via the conventional method - playing a tennis match.
Lucie Safarova, who had taken nearly four months to realise that losing didn't generate happiness, finally found joy at home here in the Czech Republic, and to make the final she had to bury a compatriot and Fed Cup heroine Karolina Pliskova.

Lucie broke Karolina's serve in the opening game of the match and the first set thereafter was basically a server's delight.  Hardly another break opportunity and not many points won against the serves of either player.  The first set safely in the Safarova locker 6-4. 

Set two again was difficult for receivers of serve, and yet Pliskova managed to squeeze out a service break and achieve a 4-1 lead.  Safarova replied with the third and final break of the match.  A tie break settled the set, and as Lucie would have it, the match as well.  Safarova is now counting her winning streak - sitting at four - instead of gloomily looking in the mirror at a once top ten player, dropping to top twenty, forgetting what a win felt like.  Should beat Stosur and effectively win her national title.

In Estoril, the biggest surprise on quarter final day was eighth seed Pablo Carreno Busta sending top seed Gilles Simon packing in an impressive straight sets display. His semi final success will require deflating another French player's hopes - Benoit Paire, the third seed, who ended the tournament for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

The other half of the draw has the highest seed left, number two Nick Kyrgios, whose serve was simply sensational against Borna Coric.  One break of serve each set was all that Nick needed to win 6-4 6-4, but the incredible statistic was 42 points won from 51 serves delivered by the Aussie throughout the match.
How Nicolas Almagro will deal with this sort of battering, if repeated, is hard to imagine, but he is used to knocking out seeds in Estoril, the latest being seventh seed Leonardo Mayer.  This was straight sets but close all the way 6-4 7-6 (5).

Munich quarter final victories for third seed Dominic Thiem and fifth seed Fabio Fognini were as expected but Del Potro's meek surrender to fourth seed Philipp Kohlschreiber was disappointing.  That disappointment was compensated somewhat by the three set thrilling upset win provided by eight seed Alexander Zverev over top seed David Goffin.
After taking the second set to level the match, most would have thought Goffin may sail home on that momentum, but Zverev served an outstanding third set.
Consider these final set statistics which emphasise what an incredible switch in momentum it was.  Zverev won 16 points from his 19 serves, and also 16 points from the 35 Goffin serves.  So his returning was phenomenal too.  He unsurprisingly faced no break points, but converted two of the six created while Goffin was delivering.

Like Safarova, Zverev seems to have leapt out of his lethargy in a tournament in his home country, and hopefully he can continue to rise, because it is young players like Zverev and Kyrgios that can bring a new excitement to the game for years to come.

The semis in Istanbul are as per the seedings, with one exception.  Number two seed Grigor Dimitrov will play third seed Ivo Karlovic and fourth seed Federico Delbonis will play the conqueror of top seed Tomic, unseeded Diego Schwartzman.
I think a Dimitrov v Delbonis final is most probable.

The Rabat tournament has from the start appeared to be a Bacsinszky benefit, and after her semi final victory over Babos, she is a heavy favourite to claim the title.  Her opponent is New Zealand qualifier Marina Erakovic, who has snuck through the draw without playing a seeded player except for Tsurenko, who retired after one set.  Credit to the fighting spirit of the Kiwi though.  After losing the first set of her semi to Kiki Bertens 6-2, she won the next two close ones 7-6 (7) 7-5.