Andy Trumps Djoker in Rome

Andy Murray fully deserved his Rome Masters title, and by winning it he gained the added prestige of having broken through the Novak Djokovic barrier, a wall that no other player in the top echelon of men's tennis had been able to bring down in 2016. (Yes Djokovic had lost twice before this year but not to players in the top bracket)

The win was also Andy's first over Novak on clay, and he won the tournament without dropping a set.  The 'revenge' for the Madrid final loss a week prior was the perfect birthday present, and to have his wife and baby daughter with him in Rome was further evidence that this was indeed Andy Murray week.

Of course the road to the final was simpler for the Scot, with his semi final opponent the unseeded lucky loser from qualifying Lucas Pouille, someone who was realistically never going to threaten the Murray serve or handle the returns or match him for movement around the court.  His weapons were made to look like toys, rifles with blanks, revolvers turned into water pistols, while Andy's arsenal was scary and the items in it deadly accurate.

After Andy had his "practice hit" with Lucas and booked his spot in the final,  Novak decided to take the long trek on foot from his semi final to reach the final where he found Andy waiting, relaxing by the pool drinking non alcoholic martinis. 

Kei Nishikori, Novak's semi final opponent, who had been paid by Murray's entourage to keep the Djoker busy for a few hours, did exactly that, ensuring at least that the match would be a three setter by stealing the first set 6-2.  Then after the match was tied at a set apiece,  Kei cleverly kept pace in the decider until a tie breaker was required.  Novak prevailed but the Japanese sixth seed had kept him on court way past his bedtime and sucked enough energy out of him (on top of that taken by Rafa in the quarter final) to make the martini sipping Andy a very contented man.

The physical conditions of the two combatants in the final would be an important factor, but to be fair it was Murray who had clearly shown the most decisive form throughout all his matches, whereas Novak had a number of struggles with which to deal, even as early as his first match.  His look of assurance that carried him throughout Madrid week, and on to the title, was not quite there in Rome, and in the final Murray beat him in all aspects of the game.  6-3 6-3 a fair reflection of the contest.

Naturally there have been those quick to see this as an end point for the extraordinary Djokovic run of success, and that Roland Garros will be Murray's or Nadal's, and Novak will once again miss out.

Let me remind those with the short memories - just before the 2015 US Open, having had an amazingly dominant year, Novak lost the two lead in Masters tournament finals in Montreal and Cincinnati to Murray and Federer respectively.  He took those losses in his stride, won the US Open, and every other tournament he played for the rest of the year.  

While it will remain very challenging to claim the clay court Grand Slam title, the disappointment to Novak of his loss in the Rome final was merely fleeting, and he as top seed should still be regarded as favourite for Roland Garros.

Novak beats Rafa in a thriller

Quarter final day in Rome saw seven matches played, four women's and three men's,  one less from the men's draw due to Juan Monaco giving Lucas Pouille a walkover into the semis, something the French player grabbed with relish.  The only reason Lucas is playing in the main draw of this Masters event is thanks to the late withdrawal of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  He replaced Tsonga as the lucky loser from qualifying.

Now he had become the beneficiary of another player's misfortune.  Could this lucky streak extend beyond the semi final ?  I seriously doubt it,  but strange things can happen.

I won't bother detailing much about any of the support matches other than saying the favourites won.  Murray defeated Goffin, Nishikori eliminated Thiem,  Williams smashed Kuznetsova, Muguruza fixed up Bacsinszky,  Keys locked out Strycova, and Begu overcame Doi.

Semi finals will be Williams v Begu, Muguruza v Keys, Murray v Pouille and Nishikori v the winner of the only quarter final that people were interested in - Djokovic v Nadal.

The expectations were fulfilled many times over as the two best clay courters in the world delivered one of the best matches of the year.

In tricky conditions effected by a variable and uncaring wind, the two stars held their early serves and at 2–2 no clue was offered as to which player, if any had started the better.  Nadal answered that question with a break of the Serb serve in the fifth game, worrying Djokovic with well planned execution of ground strokes from both wings, knowing precisely when to produce the power and where to place the shot containing it.

Djokovic managed to hold his next serve, though not with any great authority and after a long time, but was quick to snap up the break opportunity that arrived unexpectedly in the eighth game.

At 4-4, and then 5-4, the dynamic of the match had altered, a change which Novak, far more than any other player, can produce when seemingly down for the count.

Rafa was still playing some wonderful shots.  In fact both were responsible for rallies of the highest calibre, regularly featuring shots which have no right to be played by human hand alone.

Nadal levelled at 5-5, before the top seed rapidly placed the pressure back on him at 5-6 to hold to stay in the set.

Alas for the fifth seed, he eventually dropped serve a second time and Djokovic had somehow taken a one set lead 7-5.

The momentum and confidence clearly with Djokovic, and serving first in set two, the world number one had everything in his favour.  So what did he do ?  Played a shocker of a service game to immediately be down a break, Rafa leading 1-0. 

As much as Novak tried to break back, he couldn't achieve a break point with Nadal solid as a rock.  Djokovic too did not appear likely to surrender his serve again, but at 5-4 Rafa had that break from the first game in his pocket, and was serving to level the match.

Djokovic saved multiple set points, but each time it seemed more inevitable that Nadal would eventually complete the task.  However after returning to deuce for yet another time, Novak changed the recording and set up his first break point of the set - and promptly converted it.  5-5 and now Rafa was suddenly miles away from levelling the match, and probably closer to losing it.

Djokovic took the lead 6-5 and as in set one, the nine time Roland Garros champ needed to hold to keep the set (and match now) alive.  To his credit Nadal held easily and a tie break began.

Djokovic took the early advantage leading 2-1 with two serves to come.  Nadal fought back, but each time he did, Djokovic was able to eat into one of the Spaniard's serves.

At 5-3, a nervous Novak lost the point on his serve which would have provided him three match points had it gone his way.

He steadied in time to grab the next two points, both off the Nadal serve to win the tie break 7 points to 4 and the quarter final 7-5 7-6 (4).

The match was terrific, high standard from start to finish, with no clear winner to be easily determined from the contest being viewed.  In fact this was a match where  Djokovic had to come back from scoreboard adversity in both sets - he proved yet again that the scoreboard doesn't dictate what he does on court, and that there aren't many sticky situations from which he can't extract himself.

So the semi final to which Novak has found himself propelled is the one featuring Kei Nishikori.  The two have met three times already this year with Djokovic winning each time in straight sets, most recently last week in the Madrid semi finals.  In fact Djokovic has a 13-0 record this year against top ten players.

Rafa v Novak in Rome quarters - Roger doesn't care

Not a good day for Roger Federer in Rome, both on and off the court.  The fact that 13th seed Austrian Dominic Thiem defeated him 7-6 (2) 6-4 wasn't a huge surprise considering Thiem's form this year and Federer's lack of match play and fitness doubts.  A finalist at this event last year, and a third round loser this year means a several hundred drop in ranking points for Roger and a slip back to number three in the world.  Ill timed as the next Grand Slam tournament is just days away, and the seeding difference is crucial. Of course it may be a moot point, given injury and variable form leave Federer more vulnerable at Roland Garros 2016 than perhaps at any Grand Slam event for many years.

Certainly his attitude off court hasn't improved, with his career record of failing to give credit to opponents enhanced when referring to his latest loss:

"This is like, 'who cares about the results here?'. It matters what comes now in the next couple of months," Federer told a news conference.

Again the arrogant self absorbed remarks from a man who never has given sufficient credit, notably where he has been beaten fair and square.  If he truly didn't care about this event then he should have gone elsewhere for the week and practised with others who felt the same way, leaving a space in the draw for someone who takes the Rome Masters seriously.

History will more than likely gloss over this unappealing side of Federer, but for those who follow tennis closely it will be sad to think that had he shown even an ounce of the grace of some of his contemporaries and fellow top players on tour, in giving due credit to others, his star could have shone even brighter than it has.

The positive news is all about Thiem who, with his win, will move up to his career high ranking of 13, and of more immediate interest contest a quarter final against Kei Nishikori, who dispensed with one of the remaining French players Richard Gasquet.

Outside Rogers world, some odd things happened in Rome on the way to constructing the four quarter final match ups.  Novak Djokovic lost the first set of his match against unseeded Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci 6-0.  Well it looked like the top seed but the shot making appeared more like that of a local junior.  The unthinkable surely couldn't happen and destroy the prospect of the only quarter final people really cared about - Rafa v Novak.  Rafa had already signed his part of the contract, finally putting Kyrgios away in three gripping sets 6-7 (3) 6-2 6-4.

The failing Novak facsimile was replaced by something a lot closer to the real thing a couple of games into set two,  and Bellucci began to struggle against this more efficiently operating version.  Djokovic escaped with a few scars and not a little embarrassment 0-6 6-3 6-2.

Tomas Berdych was called to Grandstand, the court upon which he was to play David Goffin, but he must have confused the message, because looking at the match score he didn't make it on time.  Goffin 6-0 6-0.  The Belgian will be the first real test for second seed Andy Murray in the quarters after the Scot dealt with another part of the French resistance Jeremy Chardy in straight sets.

Stan Wawrinka is reigning Roland Garros champ but is displaying the form of a chump. The forth seed's Roman holiday was ended by Juan Monaco in the third round, as was ninth seed David Ferrer's vacation, the Spaniard unable to handle his French opponent, unseeded lucky loser Lucas Pouille.  Lucas has been handing out upsets rather regularly and finally a top ten player has joined the list.

The unseeded quarter final between Pouille and Monaco guarantees that Murray or Goffin will face an unseeded semi final opponent.  The odds have shortened considerably for Murray to feature in another Masters final.

The women's draw lost another seed but only because there was a third round match between eight seed Carla Suarez Navarro and eleventh seed Timea Bacsinszky.  Current rankings of the two show Timea at 10 and Carla at 11, reflecting Timea's recent success and Carla's failure to defend points from last year.  Of course the latest rankings were released after the Rome event had commenced.

Carla began well, taking the first set 7-5, but Timea had the finishing power and won her way into the quarter finals 5-7 7-5 6-2.  She will play 3rd seed Garbine Muguruza after the Spaniard removed Jelena Ostapenko from calculations.

The other quarter final featuring seeded players will be Serena Williams (1) v Sveta Kuznetsova (9).  Serena battled hard against fellow American Christina McHale to win a first set tie break before comfortably winning the second 6-1.  Sveta won a tough encounter with Aussie Daria Gavrilova in three sets.  This quarter final will be the first match between the two since Sveta upset Serena in Miami earlier in 2016.

Irina-Camelia Begu will play Misaki Doi in one of the two unseeded quarter finals, while Madison Keys meets Barbora Strycova in the other.

The Curse of being a Women's Seed

There was more carnage amongst the seeded players in the women's draw in the second round in the Rome Premier tournament.  More damage was inflicted in the nation's capital than has been seen since the historic fall of the Roman Empire itself.

Before we detail the left overs of the female event, there is the male equivalent tournament - the Rome Masters - being contested on the clay coloured red, both natural and with a component of the blood left by the numerous departed seeds.  Not so many on the men's side.  We lost Monfils and Anderson in round one, and seventh seed Tsonga withdrew at the last moment, leaving a spot for lucky loser from qualifying, Lucas Pouille, to fill.  A bit of symmetry that a Frenchman replaces another from France.

Round two saw the top eight seeds play their first matches and each was successful in sealing a third round ticket.  However two of the lower bracket bit the red dust.  10th seed Milos Raonic became the latest high profile name to fall victim to the Nick Kyrgios machine, and the young Australian is having a year marked with consistency, his ranking now 20 and a rough chance (would need a few withdrawals of those ranked above) of achieving a seeding within the top 16 at Roland Garros.

Both players secured a single break of serve in set one and Kyrgios won the tie break 7 points to 5.  It was close, but the Canadian's second serve was vulnerable throughout, Kyrgios winning 10 of 15 points off it.  

It was Nick's ability to win six points from the fifteen legitimate Raonic first serves in set two that helped the Aussie to a 7-6 (5) 6-3 win and a third round meeting with Nadal.

The other seed to exit was Roberto Bautista Agut (15) who was outlasted by talented Jeremy Chardy from France in a straight sets match extending just over two hours. 

Now to a women's event in which after just two rounds there are only five of the original sixteen seeds still standing.  Eight of the eleven exits were made in the second round, including Angie Kerber (2), Vika Azarenka (4), Petra Kvitova (5), Simona Halep (6) and Roberta Vinci (7).  These five were playing their first matches after receiving first round byes, meaning that half the seeds lost their opening Rome matches.

The three others to leave the Rome Premier, these at least winning round one, were Lucie Safarova (10), Venus Williams (12) and Ana Ivanovic (13).

Five of the eight are Grand Slam title winners and the other three are finalists at Grand Slam level.  It is either an indictment on the lack of sufficient effort being contributed by these supposed elite level players, or an amazing coincidence that a bunch of lower ranked players can at one point in time raise the levels of their games enough to pull off a suite of upsets in a Premier event.

It has happened too often this year that a bunch of top seeds in women's events has crumbled early to lesser players.  Clearly the talent is there, but somehow the commitment and/or mental strength needs much more work before we can rely on the Kerbers, Kvitovas, etc to give us the confidence we have when the likes of Serena or Vika step on court. (Vika's loss here can be forgiven to some degree as she suffered a back injury in Madrid just last week)

On a more positive note, we should congratulate Daria Gavrilova for continuing her good form - Halep's defeat had much to do with the Australian's current consistency on the clay, and the three set defeat was far from a disgrace, but more a let down for Simona, who had won the Madrid title last week.  

Rome - draw reflects stupidity of random seed placement

Following on directly from Madrid is another combined ATP and WTA clay court centrepiece, and the final chance in a big tournament (Masters for the men and Premier for the women) for players entertaining thoughts of a successful Roland Garros, or even earning a start in Paris.

Rome is the venue, and apart from the on court action the Italians are using the event to celebrate the career of Flavia Pennetta, who retired at the end of 2015 having won the final 2016 Grand Slam tournament (US Open), her first and only GS title, in September.  Without lifting a racquet this year, Flavia is still ranked 13 in the world.

Very early on, with only first round matches completed in most cases, and a handful of second round contests decided, some seeded players have suffered disappointment.

Gael Monfils, the Monte Carlo runner-up, shocked everyone with a second round loss to Cuevas in Madrid, and his sudden loss of form continued, leaving the Rome excitement even earlier to Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci in two sets in round one.  Although Bellucci is a respectable 37 in the world, his terrible 5-12 win loss record for 2016 puts this result in the big upset category. Three of his five wins came in one early tournament in Ecuador where he made the final.

Argentina's Juan Monaco upset 16th seed South African Kevin Anderson in the second round, while the women's draw lost, in round one, Karolina Pliskova (16th seed), Elina Svitolina (15) and sadly for Italians one of their own Sara Errani (14). The latter two lost to qualifiers, but significantly the qualifiers, though ranked lower, have enjoyed better win/loss records this year than the players they defeated.

The favourites have yet to grace the courts, but the random and shameful nature of the draw has once again shown its ugly face.  Djokovic is seeded one and Nadal seeded five.  They have deserved the right to play the lowest of seeds 5-8 and 1-4 respectively in the quarter finals.  That is what the rankings are meant to give back in return for all the blood and sweat spent in achieving the points used to assemble the order.

So the best player (Djokovic) should be drawn to play the eighth seed (Berdych) in his quarter final.  Nadal (5th seed) should play fourth seed Wawrinka in his quarter final.

Instead the stupid random draw which throws the seeds all over the place has given both Djokovic and Nadal the potentially tougher task of facing each other in the quarters, effectively penalising both for being ranked as high as they are.

Further, if the higher seeds win through to the semis, Djokovic will play third seed Federer, while second seed Murray will play the lower ranked fourth seed Wawrinka in his semi.  What did Andy do to deserve drawing a lower ranked player than top seed Novak ? Nothing ! It is this dumb idea of shuffling seeds around to create some sort of excitement at the start of the tournament and satisfy the egos of those running tennis, at the possible expense of having players drawing each other earlier in the event than they should, and maybe denying the spectators a final between two of the best because they are randomly and incorrectly on the same side of the draw.

They could stuff up Roland Garros again, because right now we want Novak and Rafa to be drawn to meet in the semis if they are seeded 1 and 5.  If Rome is repeated that proper process will be shafted.

In the 2015 French Open Novak defeated Rafa in the quarters but seeded 1 and 6 they should have been on opposite sides of the draw, with Rafa playing Murray in the quarters.  The dream final could have eventuated but for the idiocy involved with the jumbled up placement of the seeds.

There have been plenty of calls to revert to standard seed placement in draws, many by yours truly, but unless sanity is ever in charge of tennis again we will continue to endure flawed tournament draws which too often give us flawed results.

Novak beats Andy in Madrid final

Novak Djokovic has won his fifth title of the year, defeating Andy Murray in the final of the Madrid Masters over three enthralling sets.

By winning his 33rd match of 2016 (an ATP high) Novak has extended his points lead in the rankings further than the already unprecedented 7500+, and now his tally is more than double the next player who statistically is somehow Roger Federer.  Yes Federer, who has barely played this year, has managed to miss tournaments in which he scored few points last year, but retains a stack of points from the second half of 2015 which his faltering body will need to defend before too long. 

Back to the Madrid final which featured the true two top players of the moment.  Djokovic stole the initial march on Murray in set one and made the Scots already difficult task that much higher and steeper of a mountain to scale.

The scoreline was 6-2 but could have been much closer - both players won an acceptable percentage of points if their first serves were in play (Novak marginally the better) but Djokovic was more devastating when returning the second seeds second serve, winning 15 of the 22 points available.  Not that Murray was returning poorly, just not as lethal as the top seed.

Even with all of that against him Murray still created more break points and this was the key area.  Djokovic converted four of the six break points on Andy's serve, while saving eight of the ten break points he faced on his own serve.

So Andy may have appeared well beaten on the scoreboard but he was far from out of the match on the actual court, and that's why his second set comeback raised few eyebrows and was actually expected rather than a surprise.

Set two was entertaining mainly due to its increased competitiveness which thankfully didn't detract from the high standard, with Murray serving better, not allowing the Djokovic return to dictate the terms of the match.  Both players served well, but Andy won the greater percentage of points on both his first and second deliveries, did not have to save a break point, and converted one of the two offered by Djokovic.  A most impressive set of tennis in its own right, but the 6-3 success for Andy was even better when considering the circumstance - a set down against the world number one.

Now with the final level at a set all this could have gone either way.  The smart money had to be on Djokovic though.  Since Murray won his second (and last) Grand Slam title, defeating Djokovic in the 2013 Wimbledon final, the Serb had won 11 of their last 12 matches, 4 in finals, and 2 of the finals Australian Opens.

In many ways the deciding set mirrored the opening - close in most departments but Djokovic won six points when Murray was required to deliver a second serve, and that was on six occasions.  That was crucial, but once again Murray failed to take advantage of his break point opportunities, converting just the one from eight, whereas Djokovic only needed three chances from which to break the Scottish serve twice and win the set 6-3.

The 6-2 3-6 6-3 victory was the 29th Masters title for Djokovic, taking him once again to the top of that list, breaking out of the tie with Nadal.  

Post tournament thought:

Of the last 50 ATP Masters events, Djokovic has won 24 - the next best in that period is 10 from Nadal.  Interestingly, in that same period Djokovic has won 10 Grand Slam titles - the most by any male - while Nadal is next with 5.

On that basis - a fair measuring stick since Grand Slam and Masters tournaments are the highest rated events in men's tennis - Djokovic and Nadal are the clear number one and number two players of the past five years.  Federer may have racked up several ATP points, but his record at the highest level has featured a failure to capture the big titles at a rate that Nadal and especially Djokovic have done. (Eg since Aus Open 2010 just Wimbledon 2012 in the GS column)   So Roger is at best world number three over the past five years.

Halep wins Madrid - Novak & Andy in final

Sixth seed Simona Halep has easily won the Madrid Open final against Dominika Cibulkova.  Holding serve throughout, the Romanian clinched her first title of 2016 with a consistent display of the type of tennis which pushed her to number two or three in the world from mid 2014 to the start of this year.  Since then that ranking has dropped from two to seven.  6-2 was the first set score, and while Cibulkova fought hard in a closer second set Halep was not letting this one slip and the 6-2 6-4 result was a fair representation of the match.

Men's semis were held on the same day, and the two top seeds, one and two in the world, won through to the final.  Novak Djokovic defeated Kei Nishikori in straight sets but not before stumbling at 6-3 5-4 and 40-0.  Three of the most atrocious points from the world's best, including a double fault, allowed Nishikori back into the game, giving him the impetus to not only break the Djokovic serve for the first time in the tournament, but hold confidently and take the lead 6-5.  The top seed now needed to hold serve just to ensure a tie break.

This he did, steadying himself for a tie break which he controlled from the start, enabling the match to end in two sets and give Novak a shot at Andy Murray in the final.

Yes, Murray found a way past Rafa Nadal 7-5 6-4 and with a final spot confirmed, put himself within touching distance of the trophy which he won last year.  

Despite a woeful first serve percentage in set one, Murray's success rate on his serve was marginally better than Nadal and his one extra service break gave him the set 7-5.

Set two was one of wasted opportunity for Nadal, who had nine break points on the Murray serve, but converted only once.  Murray, however, converted both of his mere two chances, and that again translated into a set win, and a march to the final 7-5 6-4.

Murray has lost all three previous matches on clay to Djokovic, but with the form he is currently displaying must fancy his chances this time round.  Djokovic also has every reason to be confident, having been so strong on serve this week, and just because he has been so superior to everyone for the past 18 months.