Federer finds form early

For world number two Roger Federer the 2015 Aus Open marks the five year anniversary of his last title success at Melbourne Park and he, together with his army of fans, is anxious that this be the scene of his 18th major victory.

First victim in the road to glory - world number 47 Taipei's Yen-Hsun Lu, a consistent performer over the years, but hardly a threat to a player already with the Brisbane title to his name in 2015.

Struggling through his first two first service games including saving break points, Lu still reached 2-2 with a far more comfortable Federer whose serve, backhand and crisp volleying sounded alarm bells from the very start.

The fifth game was where Roger decided to open wide the cracks that were subtly appearing in the Lu game.  He broke serve to love, and consolidated with another typical service exhibition to delight the crowd. 4-2 and no doubt where this set was heading.

Despite some improved shot making from Lu, one could sense that second seed Federer was not as concerned about breaking serve again, certain in his own ability to hold his own with ease, which he continued to do.  He was almost experimenting at times while receiving serve, trying shots and tactics usually reserved for practice sessions.

The set was won 6-4 and the second set began statistically the same as the first with the first 4 games shared, still with the Swiss star achieving his in almost effortless fashion.  Again, the fifth game was pivotal and once more Lu surrendered to the Federer plan, broken to trail 2-3.  The volleying in particular was sharp and decisive tonight, something that would be needed later in the tournament when the tougher opponents unleash their weapons.

Federer swiftly made it 4-2 and for good measure broke in the seventh game, destroying any last gasp of hope for the unfortunate Lu.  Even with a double fault and break point down while serving for the set, Federer sidestepped that minor obstacle to gain a 6-4 6-2 lead.

The third set was for the best part a legitimate contest, where Lu raised the level of his tennis and Federer continued to play very well, albeit throwing in some rare mistakes to allow Lu some equally rare opportunities.  Games travelled with serve and Federer held with ease for the most part, except for early when Lu missed the chance to lead 2-0 after earning a break point.

At 5-5 Lu was given the lesson that so many opponents have received from Federer in the past decade - an even set of tennis was turned on its head in the blink of an eye with a break of serve to love and a change of ends before the second seed served out the match with class and brilliance

6-4 6-2 7-5 and Roger Federer announced his intentions for the next fortnight.

 

Begu curbs Kerber

The third match on Margaret Court Arena on Day One saw another Romanian, Irina-Camelia Begu challenging long time top ten player Angelique Kerber from Germany.

Fresh from a semi final appearance in Sydney Kerber was heavily favoured to prevail but To take Begu lightly would be dangerous - already today we had seen the fifth seed Ana Ivanovic exit sensationally, exemplifying the depth of women's tennis compared to past years.

Begu began by holding serve, capably rallying from the back of the court and matching it with the 9th seed.  Kerber, when ready to square it at 2-2 had a mental lapse, culminating in a double fault donating the advantage to Romania 3-1.

The top ten player on court in practical terms was Begu as she played solid and intelligent tennis, with moments of inspiration, ably abetted by a dose of inconsistency from the German racquet.

A second break left Begu tantalisingly close to capturing the opening set but the 5-1 edge quickly evaporated once the true talents of Kerber were allowed to shine.  At 4-5 all the good money had been shifted away from the Romanian.

Another twist in proceedings, and the third break of the Kerber serve, finally brought the first set to a close, a jubilant Begu the winner 6-4.  Her serve, passing shots and overall willingness to take risks payed off.

The second set was a whitewash and the most serious reality check for Irina-Camelia Begu.  Angelique Kerber remained unperturbed by the score line, fully aware of her talent and capability, and she just produced it in sufficient quantity to force Begu into constant doubt and error.  By the end of set 2 Begu had completed five successive attempts at serve and held none of them.  6-0 Kerber and a set apiece.

Begu did not accept the Begu bagel lying down - she attacked from the outset, playing with a freedom like parts of the first set but tenfold, and approaching the net whenever she had the chance.  Kerber was rendered powerless at the back of the court and the breaks came.  Yes there were gambles, but they were educated and they paid off big time.

Irons-Camelia gained crowd support with every ball toss and every volley as she upset the 9th seed 6-4 0-6 6-1 in a match full of some of the best tennis shots of the opening day.

Andy's understated but effective opening

For once not as much mentioned in the press leading into the Australian Open, the three time finalist Andy Murray is for very good reason rated a significant factor in the 2015 version of the Down Under major.  His complicated 2014 was messed around through a combination of injury, inconsistency and a lack of direction early in the piece, but compensated late with a flurry of excellent results including confidence building victories.

His position in the Federer half of the draw is heartening given his lack of success in recent times against Djokovic and his ability to match it usually with the Swiss champion these days.

Before reaching the second week though Murray would have the early rounds to navigate, and the first opponent would be India's Yuki Bhambri.

Murray, the sixth seed, began well enough, his forehand in fine touch and he held serve to lead 1-0.  His less favoured opponent struck some quite acceptable ground shots in response to back up an adequate serve, and games were tied for the first time in the match.

Andy separated himself from Bhambri by mixing his game up, introducing a lob here and there to break the monotony of cross court feuding and the effect was almost immediate with a break of the Indian serve for a 3-1 lead.  This quickly became 4-1 before Bhambri loosened up and displayed more of his set of skills, setting up points with guile and deft touch to add to his obvious abilities off the ground.

At 4-2 Murray let his guard down and the confident Bhambri assisted the Scot to be broken for the first time.  Andy stopped the bleeding, and with a withering backhand down the line set up a break point.  This one was saved, but not the one which ultimately won the game for Murray, providing him a 5-3 advantage and the chance to serve the set out.

Despite a hard test from the Indian player Murray was successful in passing his first set examination 6-3, answering enough questions from Bhambri correctly.

The second set featured some mostly standard fare tennis sometimes interrupted by exhilarating passing shots and enterprising tennis to please the masses.  Both players made contributions to the show, but Murray always appeared to have a little extra in hand when required.  Bhambri led 3-2 before the sixth seed fired off 3 successive games, eventually wrapping up the set 6-4, and giving us wonderful samples of his running forehand down the line and cross court winners en route to the two set lead.

As if to subject his legion of fans to unnecessary suffering, Andy surrendered his serve to Yuki in the fourth game of the third set.  Rather than pack up his gear and head for Tullamarine, Bhambri had decided that a two set deficit was a reason to stay and his level of tennis picked up markedly.  Consolidating the break with free flowing shot making he led 4-1 and the prospect of a fourth set appeared bright.  

Not for long however as Andy regrouped pretty much as expected and levelled the set at 4-4.

A tight period of tennis followed with neither player able to take any opportunities, and Murray held serve to ensure a tie break would determine the fate of the set.

Sadly the first point of the breaker was a Bhambri double fault, and that mistake virtually ended his chances,  Murray holding all his points on serve, and winning another on Bhambri's as insurance.  The sixth seed won the set and the match 6-3 6-4 7-6 (3), but the effort of the young Indian player was commendable and he does have potential to go much higher in world rankings in the future.

Murray did enough to suggest that this Open would see him featured at the pointy end.

Jarmila happily christens new look MCA

The 2015 Australian Open began in earnest on Monday 19 January 2015, and the third court to brag a roof at Melbourne Park, Margaret Court Arena, played host to its first Grand Slam match under the new configuration, pitting local Jarmila Gajdosova against Romania's Alexandra Dulgheru.  Neither girl had ventured past the third round in this major before in their combined twelve attempts, so history was about to be created today.

Jarmila had had a year of career rehabilitation in 2014 and had continued her rise through the rankings with impressive wins over highly credentialed players Petkovic and Cibulkova in Sydney leading into this tournament.  Although I was less than delighted that she had crushed the hopes of two of my favourite players in the process, I was thrilled for the now world ranked 62.

Jarmila served first and held convincingly, attacking at times and even approaching the net to take the initiative.  Her delivery to the deuce court was particularly effective.  On the Dulgheru serve, a baseline contest ensued, littered with mistakes, but saved from complete disaster by a brilliant backhand winner from Gajdosova which set up a break point and eventually the service break.

The Australian's consistency more than her dynamic tennis saw her hold serve and break again for a 4-0 lead over an error prone Romanian who just was not finding the court dimensions quite big enough for her shot making.  However, Dulgheru managed to draw some mistakes from a previously reliable Australian forehand and from 30-15 Gajdosova managed to forfeit the fifth game.  

When Dulgheru breezed through the sixth game and Gajdosova played a loose array of shots to be 15-40, the signs were worrying.  However, these days, Jarmila fights out of such predicaments and so she did today, finally using her serve to advantage and save the situation to lead 5-2.

The final two games of the set saw a number of winners from both players, and although Alexandra saved set point on her serve, she could not prevent the Australian serving it out, a sizzling ground stroke winner sealing it 6-3.

Set two began in similar fashion but on this occasion Dulgheru managed to hold off Gajdosova and hold serve to lead 1-0.  Following a fairly straightforward service game of her own, Jarmila wasted a couple of chances for the first break of the set before a double fault relieved her of the responsibility and now she held sway a set and 2-1.

Serving for the next four games was the master and some better tennis between the two resulted, but at 3-4 and receiving, Alexandra needed something special.  It didn't arrive and instead Jarmila strode to 5-3 without the loss of a further point.

Dulgheru bravely saved two match points and served her way to 4-5 but there was never any doubt about how this would finish.  Jarmila Gajdosova comprehensively prevailed 6-3 6-4 and her "reward" a second round clash with Simona Halep.

Serena's reign under threat ?

For years Serena Williams has seen off the sternest challenges to her title of the dominant woman in tennis.  Whether she is deemed to be out of shape, unfit, out of form, or past her best, the champion has laughed in the faces of those foolish enough to suggest the end may be nigh.

And so it plays out once more in 2015 with claims of a major concern for the 18 time major winner based on her output in the recent Hopman Cup.  I'd suggest we wait till serious competition begins before we worry about Serena.  And even then let's be real - her Australian Open performances in recent times have fallen well short of expectations with defeats in two fourth rounds and a quarter final in the past three attempts.

Maybe the queen of the court is just a late starter to the season late in her career.  She tends to make up for it !  She also makes a habit of pulling a diamond out of her rough patches of form, rare though those patches may be.  Watch out Melbourne Park in 2015.

Also keep an eye on the seriously in form and already winners in 2015, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova, the two apparent challengers to the top ranking should Serena decide it requires relinquishing.  A fit Maria is always dangerous while Halep's star continues to rise.  The Romanian was the only player to defeat Williams at the 2014 year end Finals, and although smashed in the decider by a vengeful Williams, overall displayed the type of tennis befitting a future number one.

Ana Ivanovic challenged Sharapova in the Brisbane final a week ago, and has the firepower to retain a top five position and push for greater honours, perhaps adding to her 2008 Roland Garros honours.  It would not surprise to see her reach the final at Melbourne Park - she is in the opposite side of the draw to Serena, and remember she stopped Serena in three sets at last year's Oz Open, so a title is not beyond the Serbian star.

My early prediction is Serena Williams to defeat Ana Ivanovic in a memorable final, with Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova the losing semi finalists respectively.  The danger to Serena could come prior to then with potential quarter final opponent and eighth seed Caroline Wozniacki.  Even big sister Venus, who defeated Wozniacki in the Auckland final last week could surprise by sneaking through to a "Sisters" Semi.

My long range forecast for the year end top ten is:

1. Serena Williams

2. Maria Sharapova

3. Simona Halep

4. Ana Ivanovic

5. Caroline Wozniacki

6. Agnieszka Radwanska

7. Petra Kvitova

8. Eugenie Bouchard

9. Venus Williams

10. Garbine Muguruza

2015 - Change at the Top or Same Old Faces ?

Yes, it seems like only yesterday we were crowning Novak and Serena as respective Champions of 2014 Mens and Women's tennis, celebrating both the pair's sustained dominance of the game but bemoaning the lack of a fresh new presence to significantly challenge their place at the pinnacle of the great game.  Today it is the plight of the Men's game which is up for discussion.

Sure, Stanislas Wawrinka and Marin Cilic broke through for maiden major victories in 2014, but did insufficiently well in other tournaments to threaten the elite, and with Rafa Nadal injured for the second half of the year, only Roger Federer performed consistently enough to statistically appear capable of thwarting Djokovic's bid for number one.  Of course that Swiss effort had holes in it too, the largest his inability to win at the highest level, an annoyance dogging the great since 2012.

So in 2015 we need for the sake of continued interest in Men's Tennis the names of Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, Stanislas Wawrinka and others to not just counter the top few once in awhile, but establish an equality.  We need to have created for us an environment where results are unpredictable in rounds earlier than the semi finals.  A sense of excitement about the matches that for instance Nadal and Federer play prior to meeting each other, because, for once there is a real expectation that they may not reach that far.

Andy Murray has to get over himself and his preoccupation with messing with his coaches, something which he appeared to have resolved when Ivan Lendl lifted the Scot to levels commensurate with his long promised potential, but resurfaced with an inexplicable parting of ways.  Murray is one player, when mentally focused, with the physical game to worry Djokovic as evidenced at Wimbledon in 2013 and at Flushing Meadows the year before.

Players like Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic are still young enough with talent to burn to make some headway and perhaps put Australia forward as a serious tennis nation, not just in terms of hosting a  Grand Slam event, but challenging for the big prizes on offer on the ATP Tour.

A fit Nadal and a driven Djokovic are favourites to lead the world again this year.  What may happen in lead up events before the Australian Open in a fortnight will be of interest, but we should not be too excited, alarmed or invest wads of cash, based on the various outcomes in Doha, Chennai, Brisbane, Auckland and Sydney.  It's is only early and many cobwebs are being cleared from since the last competitive shots were played.

For the Australian Open, it is hard to deny deep second week obligations for Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.  And more specific predictions will come closer to the tournament.  The bigger picture - the 2015 year end rankings - is straight from my 12 month crystal ball, and here is the current best guesstimate (one certain to cause me the maximum embarrassment down the track)

1. Novak Djokovic

2. Rafa Nadal

3. Kei Nishikori

4. Andy Murray

5. Roger Federer

6. Stanislas Wawrinka

7. Milos Raonic

8. Grigor Dimitrov

9. Tomas Berdych

10. Roberto Bautista Agut

Novak - 2014's best, whatever the ranking points

The recent hype surrounding a "battle" for year end number one ATP ranking between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer is purely statistical and unfairly has overshadowed the clear fact that once again Novak has been the player of the year.

Yes, the great Federer may have gathered sufficient points here and there to have challenged the Serbian tally, but even if Roger did surpass Novak in London next week (though after Paris that appears most unlikely) nothing could change the stark comparison of the two seasons at the highest level.

Djokovic won Wimbledon against Federer on the Swiss champ's favourite and most prolific Grand Slam court.  He also was runner-up at Roland Garros, semi finalist in New York and quarter finalist in Melbourne.  Novak also won four Masters titles, across two different surfaces, and both indoor and out.

No one is denying that Roger also had a terrific year, but once again he failed to add to his Grand Slam tournament tally.  One final, two semis and a fourth round at the four GS tournaments and two Masters successes form the basis for statistically a good year, but certainly not warranting consideration of Player of the Year.  So let us not be carried away by the mere total ATP ranking points when judging 2014.

An interesting fact - if Federer finished 2014 ranked number one he would be the first in the Open Era to do so without winning a major in that year, since John McEnroe in 1982.

I sense a double standard because while there would be nothing but praise and adoration for Roger being number one ranked at the end of 2014, despite winless at Grand Slam level, just think back to the WTA Tour when Jelena Jankovic (2008) and Caroline Wozniacki (2010 and 2011) were mercilessly criticised for finishing the year as the highest ranked on the WTA Tour, simply for not having won a major.

It wasn't the first time - for example Lindsay Davenport finished both 2004 and 2005 ranked number one on the WTA tour, yet won no majors in those years; yes she had proved herself as a major winner, but those were in 2000 and earlier.

And while it's true Roger has won 17 big ones, it is over two years since he tasted that success, and the currency of those 17 when discussing 2014 is wearing thin.

But if the credibility of finishing the year number one according to the rankings does not require a Grand Slam tournament win for Roger Federer, and I am not advocating either way, then nor should it for any other player who has similarly been consistent enough to rake up the most points without the spoils of one or more of the big four.

The ATP and WTA ranking points will always be what they are, and just once in awhile the best player in a calendar year, male or female, may not coincide with the one having the highest points tally.