Serena's reign under threat ?

For years Serena Williams has seen off the sternest challenges to her title of the dominant woman in tennis.  Whether she is deemed to be out of shape, unfit, out of form, or past her best, the champion has laughed in the faces of those foolish enough to suggest the end may be nigh.

And so it plays out once more in 2015 with claims of a major concern for the 18 time major winner based on her output in the recent Hopman Cup.  I'd suggest we wait till serious competition begins before we worry about Serena.  And even then let's be real - her Australian Open performances in recent times have fallen well short of expectations with defeats in two fourth rounds and a quarter final in the past three attempts.

Maybe the queen of the court is just a late starter to the season late in her career.  She tends to make up for it !  She also makes a habit of pulling a diamond out of her rough patches of form, rare though those patches may be.  Watch out Melbourne Park in 2015.

Also keep an eye on the seriously in form and already winners in 2015, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova, the two apparent challengers to the top ranking should Serena decide it requires relinquishing.  A fit Maria is always dangerous while Halep's star continues to rise.  The Romanian was the only player to defeat Williams at the 2014 year end Finals, and although smashed in the decider by a vengeful Williams, overall displayed the type of tennis befitting a future number one.

Ana Ivanovic challenged Sharapova in the Brisbane final a week ago, and has the firepower to retain a top five position and push for greater honours, perhaps adding to her 2008 Roland Garros honours.  It would not surprise to see her reach the final at Melbourne Park - she is in the opposite side of the draw to Serena, and remember she stopped Serena in three sets at last year's Oz Open, so a title is not beyond the Serbian star.

My early prediction is Serena Williams to defeat Ana Ivanovic in a memorable final, with Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova the losing semi finalists respectively.  The danger to Serena could come prior to then with potential quarter final opponent and eighth seed Caroline Wozniacki.  Even big sister Venus, who defeated Wozniacki in the Auckland final last week could surprise by sneaking through to a "Sisters" Semi.

My long range forecast for the year end top ten is:

1. Serena Williams

2. Maria Sharapova

3. Simona Halep

4. Ana Ivanovic

5. Caroline Wozniacki

6. Agnieszka Radwanska

7. Petra Kvitova

8. Eugenie Bouchard

9. Venus Williams

10. Garbine Muguruza

2015 - Change at the Top or Same Old Faces ?

Yes, it seems like only yesterday we were crowning Novak and Serena as respective Champions of 2014 Mens and Women's tennis, celebrating both the pair's sustained dominance of the game but bemoaning the lack of a fresh new presence to significantly challenge their place at the pinnacle of the great game.  Today it is the plight of the Men's game which is up for discussion.

Sure, Stanislas Wawrinka and Marin Cilic broke through for maiden major victories in 2014, but did insufficiently well in other tournaments to threaten the elite, and with Rafa Nadal injured for the second half of the year, only Roger Federer performed consistently enough to statistically appear capable of thwarting Djokovic's bid for number one.  Of course that Swiss effort had holes in it too, the largest his inability to win at the highest level, an annoyance dogging the great since 2012.

So in 2015 we need for the sake of continued interest in Men's Tennis the names of Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, Stanislas Wawrinka and others to not just counter the top few once in awhile, but establish an equality.  We need to have created for us an environment where results are unpredictable in rounds earlier than the semi finals.  A sense of excitement about the matches that for instance Nadal and Federer play prior to meeting each other, because, for once there is a real expectation that they may not reach that far.

Andy Murray has to get over himself and his preoccupation with messing with his coaches, something which he appeared to have resolved when Ivan Lendl lifted the Scot to levels commensurate with his long promised potential, but resurfaced with an inexplicable parting of ways.  Murray is one player, when mentally focused, with the physical game to worry Djokovic as evidenced at Wimbledon in 2013 and at Flushing Meadows the year before.

Players like Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic are still young enough with talent to burn to make some headway and perhaps put Australia forward as a serious tennis nation, not just in terms of hosting a  Grand Slam event, but challenging for the big prizes on offer on the ATP Tour.

A fit Nadal and a driven Djokovic are favourites to lead the world again this year.  What may happen in lead up events before the Australian Open in a fortnight will be of interest, but we should not be too excited, alarmed or invest wads of cash, based on the various outcomes in Doha, Chennai, Brisbane, Auckland and Sydney.  It's is only early and many cobwebs are being cleared from since the last competitive shots were played.

For the Australian Open, it is hard to deny deep second week obligations for Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.  And more specific predictions will come closer to the tournament.  The bigger picture - the 2015 year end rankings - is straight from my 12 month crystal ball, and here is the current best guesstimate (one certain to cause me the maximum embarrassment down the track)

1. Novak Djokovic

2. Rafa Nadal

3. Kei Nishikori

4. Andy Murray

5. Roger Federer

6. Stanislas Wawrinka

7. Milos Raonic

8. Grigor Dimitrov

9. Tomas Berdych

10. Roberto Bautista Agut

Novak - 2014's best, whatever the ranking points

The recent hype surrounding a "battle" for year end number one ATP ranking between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer is purely statistical and unfairly has overshadowed the clear fact that once again Novak has been the player of the year.

Yes, the great Federer may have gathered sufficient points here and there to have challenged the Serbian tally, but even if Roger did surpass Novak in London next week (though after Paris that appears most unlikely) nothing could change the stark comparison of the two seasons at the highest level.

Djokovic won Wimbledon against Federer on the Swiss champ's favourite and most prolific Grand Slam court.  He also was runner-up at Roland Garros, semi finalist in New York and quarter finalist in Melbourne.  Novak also won four Masters titles, across two different surfaces, and both indoor and out.

No one is denying that Roger also had a terrific year, but once again he failed to add to his Grand Slam tournament tally.  One final, two semis and a fourth round at the four GS tournaments and two Masters successes form the basis for statistically a good year, but certainly not warranting consideration of Player of the Year.  So let us not be carried away by the mere total ATP ranking points when judging 2014.

An interesting fact - if Federer finished 2014 ranked number one he would be the first in the Open Era to do so without winning a major in that year, since John McEnroe in 1982.

I sense a double standard because while there would be nothing but praise and adoration for Roger being number one ranked at the end of 2014, despite winless at Grand Slam level, just think back to the WTA Tour when Jelena Jankovic (2008) and Caroline Wozniacki (2010 and 2011) were mercilessly criticised for finishing the year as the highest ranked on the WTA Tour, simply for not having won a major.

It wasn't the first time - for example Lindsay Davenport finished both 2004 and 2005 ranked number one on the WTA tour, yet won no majors in those years; yes she had proved herself as a major winner, but those were in 2000 and earlier.

And while it's true Roger has won 17 big ones, it is over two years since he tasted that success, and the currency of those 17 when discussing 2014 is wearing thin.

But if the credibility of finishing the year number one according to the rankings does not require a Grand Slam tournament win for Roger Federer, and I am not advocating either way, then nor should it for any other player who has similarly been consistent enough to rake up the most points without the spoils of one or more of the big four.

The ATP and WTA ranking points will always be what they are, and just once in awhile the best player in a calendar year, male or female, may not coincide with the one having the highest points tally.

Serena and Caro - new Friendly Rivalry

Serena Williams, by her own unmatched standards, had a roller coaster 2014, but did tie up a few loose ends in the later stages, capturing a sixth US Open crown and eventually her third straight season ending WTA Finals.

However, while it was Maria Sharapova chasing Serena for the number one spot, and Simona Halep contesting the champion in the Singapore finale, the real rivalry created in the latter half of the year was a truly friendly one with Caroline Wozniacki.  Caro has revitalised her tennis since Wimbledon, and can lay serious claim to being the fittest player on tour.

While training for tennis tournaments throughout the world, Caro has also been preparing for a tilt at the New York marathon, and her performance level on court has not suffered, in fact has blossomed.

A record since the London grass of 28 match wins against 8 losses and a finishing ranking of 7 in the world are fine stats in isolation, but further analysis suggests greater credit is due the Danish star.

Twice she defeated the 2014 Roland Garros champion Sharapova, once at the US Open, and again in the WTA Finals.  In the WTA Finals she also swept aside the 2014 Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova and the third player seeded above her in her group Agnieszka Radwanska. (She had Radwanska's measure again earlier in the Cincinnati quarters in August)

A title winner in Istanbul and a finalist in Tokyo, Caro was clearly one of the top players based on matches won, but when you consider that half of her losses experienced from August to October were to Serena Williams, three of them after taking the first set from the best, and the other in the US Open final, the record is immediately seen in a different light.

Caroline Wozniacki will not take pleasure in the successive failures to overcome Serena, but she now knows that instead of just being cannon fodder for the world number one, a Wozniacki match up will in future continue to present a serious challenge for Williams.  The Australian Open final has materialised as a realistic target for which to aim.

Finals create history with little contest

Unfortunately the two singles finals in the 2014 US Open were no more than exhibitions by Serena Williams and Marin Cilic.  Luckily the tennis from these two champions was of a high enough calibre, not only in the finale, but in preceding matches to warrant the trophies and prodigious amounts of money headed their way.

Serena, a "mere" five time winner this year prior to Flushing Meadows, and a poor performer at each of the majors, spared her good friend Caroline Wozniacki any torture by slamming her with brutal winners on the back of brilliant serving to secure her sixth New York Grand Slam tournament success - the last half of them in successive years.  She now sits atop any player, man or woman, in the game today, with eighteen major single titles from 56 attempts, an astonishing 10 from the last 22, and she has the desire to improve and win more.  Once she reaches a final, who can seriously stop her?

A word on Caroline Wozniacki.  The former world ranked number one has revived her career in no uncertain terms, and has proven to be second only to Serena on the North American hard courts this season.  Her turn to win a Grand Slam title may yet come, and soon.  One of those times that Serena isn't hell bent on squashing the hopes of 127 others in the draw.  The win over Sharapova is especially something to savour from these past two weeks,  and Caro has flown back into the top ten with fire.

The unexpected men's final gave us the fourth different winner of a major this calendar year, and two of them newbies.  Marin Cilic now has to prove he can mix it on a regular basis with the Novaks and Rafas of the world, something that Del Potro hasn't managed since his 2009 triumph (injuries have not helped) and Wawrinka is yet to do since Melbourne this year.

Cilic has the firepower to trouble the very best, and maybe he will take a greater level of confidence into matches with the US Open crown his.  Kei Nishikori, while disappointed at being outclassed in straight sets in the final, must use his wins over Raonic, Wawrinka and especially Djokovic to advantage as he forges a path forward possibly into the worlds top five by the end of 2014.  

Both the finalists, together with Dimitrov and Raonic, and possibly Tsonga, must capitalise on the diminishing effect of Federer (his ranking in the world belies the fact that he does not make finals at Grand Slam level much these days - Wimbledon this year was the first in two years), the injury prone Nadal, the question marks over Murray, and a lesser return from Djokovic.

If they don't cash in while they can, we will revert to what we have seen over the past five years:

Fourteen Grand Slam titles won by the top tier of Nadal and Djokovic and four by the next level of Federer and Murray.  

2014 has been different with Stan and Marin breaking through and that is the trend we want to see into 2015 and beyond.

Serena the constant as we welcome surprise finalists

Well after a fortnight of upsets, it appeared that things were back on track with Serena Williams cruising through to yet another Flushing Meadows final, and Djokovic and Federer with seemingly straightforward tasks to be completed on men's semi final day.

Nothing could prepare us for what was to occur.

Yes Serena had provided Ekaterina Makarova with confirmation of her dominance by taking only an hour of her time to dismiss the Russian 6-1 6-3.  Makarova should be rapt with her performance over the whole tournament, and the final match is not indicative of her rise in the game this past year or so.

Earlier, Caroline Wozniacki prevailed in circumstances no one wanted, when Peng Shuai, after courageously battling the punishing heat, collapsed on the court and eventually had to retire.  The tenth seed Wozniacki had fought back from a break down to win the first set tie breaker and was serving at 3-4 when the match finished prematurely.

The two highest remaining seeds in the women's draw would now be battling each other for the title.

Not so with the men.

Firstly, Kei Nishikori, with his damaging forehand causing the top seed all sorts of trouble, broke twice in the opening set to win it 6-4.  Shock waves reverberated around Queens and Japanese fans wondered if the impossible could happen.  Novak retaliated immediately, dominating from the baseline and hardly making a mistake as he raced through set 2 for the loss of only a single game.

At a set each, bookies were feeling much more comfortable.

However, the form that saw him dispatch Raonic and Wawrinka came back to Nishikori in the third set, and he outgunned the Serbian star at his own game, eventually breaking in the eighth game, earning the right to serve for the set.

Djokovic proved again that he is best at extracting himself from desperate situations, and broke back.  A tiebreak was required, and once more the Japanese hotshot put the pressure on, opening up a 4-0 lead.  He had two serves at 5-2 to win the set, but Novak won both to give his fans hope as points were back on serve.

There was no stopping the irresistible surge from Nishikori, though, and he won the remaining points to  establish a two sets to one lead 6-4 1-6 7-6.

Djokovic appeared tired, and Kei Nishikori, running on adrenalin and the knowledge that his tennis was the better this match, pushed for and achieved an immediate break to lead 2-0 at the start of what would be the final set.  Serving at 5-4 for the match, Nishikori found his opponent had little more to give, and an appearance in the US Open final, his first major final, was reward for his sensational upset of the best hard court player in the world. 

With Nadal out injured, and Ferrer, Dimitrov, Berdych and Djokovic all beaten, it looked like the dream run for Roger Federer would result in him winning a sixth US Open.  Marin Cilic was not informed of this plan and proceeded to serve the Swiss ace off the court for two scintillating sets of tennis 6-3 6-4. Cilic was winning almost 100% of points on his first serve and more than half on his second delivery.  He hit twice as many winners as Federer in sets 1 and 2, and despite Roger not playing badly, the Croatian game just overwhelmed the former number one.  

When Federer broke serve in the third, murmurs of a comeback like that against Monfils did the rounds, in hope more than anything.  Once Marin broke back, the sense of inevitability of result returned.  Federer pushed hard, but at 3-3 he stumbled again, and was broken for the final time to trail 4-3.  

Serving for glory at 5-4, Cilic began with two aces to effectively put beyond doubt the result.

Cilic won 6-3 6-4 6-4 and the US Open final for 2014 will be contested between players not including Federer, Nadal or Djokovic - the first such Grand Slam tournament final since the 2005 Australian Open.

Debut Semi Finalists join old hands

2014 has been more of the same for Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic as the respective number one seeds have claimed semi final spots in the US Open for the fourth straight year (Serena) and eighth straight (Novak).  Serena has actually made the semis for the last six years she has played at Flushing Meadows, having been unavailable in 2010.  

Novak has converted those semis into five finals, winning in 2011, while Serena has made the final for the past three years winning the last two.

So much for the reliable top seeds.  The support acts amongst the top ten have taken a fearful battering this past week or so, especially the women.  We lost seeds 2 through 9 before the quarter finals, and two players will feature in their first semi finals at Grand Slam level.  

Ekaterina Makarova has continued a wonderful season, and the 17th seed is rewarded with a match against Serena Williams after dispensing with the runner up from the last two years Vika Azarenka in one quarter final.

Peng Shuai will enjoy her battle with 10th seed Caroline Wozniacki in the other semi final after the unseeded Chinese player successfully accounted for surprise packet Belinda Bencic in another quarter final.

Sara Errani will hopefully be remembered for her four quality victories at this years event and not her inglorious exit, thrashed by Wozniacki who seems set to meet Williams in the final - a repeat of their recent clashes in Montreal and Cincinnati.

Not to be outdone, the men's draw has seen Kei Nishikori sneak by without too much fanfare until his victories over 5th seed Milos Raonic in the fourth round, and in another tough five setter over 3rd seed Stanislas Wawrinka in the quarters.

On the other side, the exciting 20th seed Gael Monfils has put together one of his best majors, winning a quarter final spot without dropping a set, and taking out countryman and 12th seed Gasquet in the third round before dumping Wimbledon semi finalist and seventh seed Dimitrov in the fourth round.

Normally, a win against his next opponent Roger Federer would be deemed highly unlikely but the chances are reasonable this time, and the match should be one of the best to watch in the tournament thus far.

The remaining quarter final features sixth seed Tomas Berdych, who has gained form and confidence with each match.  He will try and prevent Marin Cilic, the 14th seed, from gaining his second semi final appearance at a Grand Slam tournament.