Good to see Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic back for this years final Grand Slam tournament. Also great for Stan Wawrinka to be in good form coming into the 2018 US Open.
This makes for a far more competitive event, even if for Andy this will be just a further step in his comeback from injury and operation.
Now for my forensic dissection of the men’s main draw.
The top half is headed by defending champion and world number one, top seed Rafa Nadal.
For a multitude of reasons, the Spaniard needs to be on the first lines of betting to win once again.
For one, his form leading into Flushing Meadows is near perfect. In the one tournament he has played since Wimbledon, Nadal picked up the Rogers Cup trophy in Toronto, his 33rd Masters 1000 title, along the way accounting for Stan Wawrinka, and in the quarter finals Marin Cilic.
With a rest before New York, he is fit for purpose, and has been given a relatively kind draw.
A first round against fellow countryman David Ferrer, is a terrific draw for the latter, not because David will win, but that he could be playing his last GS match and it is against his mate.
Rafa will probably meet Karen Khachanov (27) in the third round, the player he defeated in the Toronto semi finals.
A fourth round clash is likely with Kyle Edmund (16) and then the possible drama may arise.
Players that could present themselves as quarter final opponents include Nadal’s 2018 Roland Garros final victim Dominic Thiem (9), last weeks Winston-Salem trophy winner, unseeded American Steve Johnson, Canadian wiz kid Denis Shapovalov (28), the highest ranked teenager in the world, and most likely the 2018 Wimbledon and 2017 US Open finalist, Kevin Anderson.
A potential semi final is Nadal v Juan Martin del Potro (3), and the Argentine has a softer draw on paper. He is drawn to play Grigor Dimitrov (8) in the quarter finals, but the Bulgarian must first negotiate a path past 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka in the opening round.
Wawrinka won their most recent clash in Wimbledon’s opening round.
del Potro can expect most resistance from the likes of 20 year old Greek rock star Stefanos Tsitsipas (15) in the round of sixteen and Canadian big server Milos Raonic (28) if the latter can make the quarters.
The bottom half offers up tournament favourite Novak Djokovic (6).
Just a couple of months back Novak would be happy to have been regarded as a chance to compete in the second week here. Instead he has made the final of Queens Club, captured Wimbledon for a fourth time, and beaten three top ten players, including Roger Federer in the final, to claim the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.
Djokovic is seeded to meet Richard Gasquet (26) in round three. Gasquet has beaten Djokovic once - in 2007. Novak has won the past ten.
Round of sixteen opposition is expected to be Pablo Carreno Busta (12).
Djokovic has won both times they have met, each time in Monte Carlo on clay, the favoured surface for the Spaniard.
The quarter final, should it occur, is the block buster everyone is itching to see and would be the 47th iteration of Federer-Djokovic.
It would be the 16th time they have met in a Grand Slam tournament, with Djokovic leading 9-6 at present - 3-1 in finals.
At the US Open, it is 3–3, 1-1 in finals, with Federer having last defeated Djokovic in New York nine years ago.
For Federer to reach this years quarter final, he must knock over Nick Kyrgios (30) in the third round - assuming both make it there - A rock solid assumption on Rogers behalf, not so Nick who could fail on any number of fronts, despite his enormous talent.
Fabio Fognini (14) is a renowned shot maker, but two or three shots beneath Roger, so an entertaining round of sixteen match should finish with the Swiss master in a quarter final with Djokovic
The way the Serb picked apart Roger in Cincinnati leads me to think Novak will have too many cards up his sleeve and will make it through to the semi final, meeting Marin Cilic (7), who has won this before, and made other GS finals, including the 2018 Australian Open.
The Croatian should have too many guns for even the ultra talented Sascha Zverev (4), who is bound to eventually lift a major trophy, or more. However at 21, he needs to be patient because once he scores his first, a bundle could flow his way.
Yes, I have ignored David Goffin (10), Diego Schwartzman (13) and Kei Nishikori (21), not because I don’t believe they will have good tournaments, but I can’t see them finishing deep into the second week.
In summary, semi finals, in my opinion will be:
Rafa Nadal (1) v Juan Martin del Potro (3)
Marin Cilic (7) v Novak Djokovic (6)
The final should be another Nadal / Djokovic classic and I select Novak to take home major number 14, but don’t take my word on it. Anything could happen.
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