US Open Women’s Singles Preview

2024 US Open Women’s Singles

When deliberating over my forecasts for best performances at this year’s US Open, I looked at recent and current form, US Open records, other Grand Slam tournament records, and finally the draw.

The following players rose to the surface:

Aryna Sabalenka - favourite with the bookies.

Jessica Pegula - winner of WTA 1000 in Canada and runner-up in WTA Cincinnati 1000 in the last few weeks.

Iga Swiatek - world number one 

CoCo Gauff - reigning US Open champion 

Jasmine Paolini - twice finalist in 2024 majors

Aryna Sabalenka (2), last year’s finalist, just won the WTA 1000 tournament in Cincinnati. 

She would first need to beat qualifier Priscilla Hon, then Lulu Sun or Lucia Bronzetti - she has lost to none of those. 

Ekaterina Alexandrova (29) is the third round scheduled opponent, and their last meeting saw a win to Sabalenka in 2023 Wimbledon’s fourth round.

Madison Keys (14) in the round of sixteen. Sabalenka beat Keys twice last year - in the Wimbledon quarters and the US Open semis.

Quarters drawn to play Zheng Qinwen (7). Beat her both times they met - US Open quarters last year and Australian Open this year.

Semi final drawn against CoCo Gauff (3).

Jessica Pegula (6) is in stunning hard court form, and after she accounts for fellow American Shelby Rogers, her second round match up will be a major winner, either Emma Raducanu or Naomi Osaka.

Katie Boulter (31) defeated Pegula in January’s United Cup, but her US Open is poor, and she won’t bother the sixth seed in round three.

Round of sixteen opponent seeded to be Danielle Collins (11).

I prefer the chances of Diana Shnaider (18), who won the Hungary tournament in July and made the semis in Canada.

Pegula beat her there, and will repeat that victory here.

Quarter final against Iga Swiatek (1).

Iga Swiatek (1) has won Roland Garros, and four WTA 1000 tournaments this year. 

More recently she won bronze at the Olympics and reached the semis in Cincinnati, beaten by Sabalenka.

After defeating Kamilla Rakhimova in round one, and her likely opponent Daria Saville following that, her third victim will be Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (25). Pavlyuchenkova made the US Open quarters in 2011, but her record since then has been less than average.

And Swiatek won their only previous encounter.

Mirra Andreeva (21) won her first title in Romania this July, and made the quarters in Cincinnati where she was beaten by Swiatek.

She will bow out to Swiatek again in the US Open round of sixteen.

Swiatek will be challenged by Jessica Pegula in the quarter finals.

The pair met four times in 2023, and split the difference 2-2.

Although Swiatek has won a US Open (2022), I believe that Pegula’s current form can continue, allowing her to march into the 2024 semi finals.

CoCo Gauff (3) needs to reverse her current lack of form if she wishes to repeat her US Open triumph of 2023.

She should be able to do this in the early rounds, where first up opponent Varvara Gracheva, and likely next one Tatjana Maria don’t pose serious threats.

Elina Svitolina (27) in round three is a step up in class though. 

Gauff should draw confidence from winning the Auckland final against Svitolina in January this year.

Round of sixteen should be a win against fellow American Emma Navarro (13).

Gauff defeated Navarro in the Auckland semis, but Navarro knocked Gauff out at Wimbledon this year. 

Revenge in New York for Gauff.

Quarter final opposition comes from a section of the draw which could present a number of options.

I favour Barbora Krejcikova (8), simply because she won Wimbledon.

Others with claims include Paula Badosa (26), Victoria Azarenka (20) and Maria Sakkari (9). None will trouble CoCo.

Semi final against Sabalenka.(2), and a rematch of last year’s final.

Jasmine Paolini (5) was a finalist in the past two majors, and I expect her to continue her excellent performance into this year’s US Open.

She has a challenge initially, with former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, but after dealing with that, she will proceed through the next rounds, albeit not altogether comfortably.

Players such as former US Open finalist Karolina Pliskova, Linda Noskova (just won Monterrey title), Yulia Putintseva (30) (who shocked Swiatek in the 2024 Wimbledon third round) may be stumbling blocks over which to climb.

Round of sixteen, and it will be Jelena Ostapenko (10), who herself has dual US Open champion Naomi Osaka in the first round to dismiss.

Ostapenko defeated Paolini in the US Open first round last year, but things have changed significantly in 12 months.

Quarter final and Elena Rybakina (4). Rybakina was beaten in the Roland Garros quarters this year by Paolini, whose Olympic silver medal form will have her in the semis with another victory over the fourth seed.

Predictions:

Semi Finals

Jessica Pegula (6) to defeat Jasmine Paolini (5)

Aryna Sabalenka (2) to defeat CoCo Gauff (3)

Aryna Sabalenka (2) to defeat Jessica Pegula (6) in the final