US Open - Men’s Singles Preview
Some would have you believe that Novak Djokovic is the beneficiary of Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer not competing at this years US Open.
Not so. The world’s number one has had the measure of those two at majors for many years. 3-0 over Nadal since 2014 and 6-0 over Federer since 2012.
The actual winners from the absence of those two, especially Nadal, are the young guns, hoping to have a shot at Grand Slam glory.
The path remains difficult - seven best of five sets victories - but Thiem as second seed won’t need to meet one of the Big 3 until the final, and it could be classed crudely as Djokovic against the rest in some circles.
Djokovic is red hot favourite, with last years finalist Medvedev next in line, then Tsitsipas and Thiem. No one else is given a chance, Raonic on the fifth line but at long odds.
Searching for those likely to do well, let’s look at the draws of the top seeds.
Novak Djokovic (1)
The top seed opens his tournament against Damir Dzumhur, a player he has beaten easily each time they’ve met, and after he’s repeated the dose, Kyle Edmund should be the second and more demanding opponent.
The Brit defeated Djokovic on the Madrid clay in 2018, but four times on hard courts Djokovic has had his measure, including last year in Paris.
Edmund lost first round in the Western & Southern Open.
Jan-Lennard Struff (28) could provide an interesting clash in the third round; the German was impressive in defeating de Minaur, Shapovalov and Goffin in the Western & Southern Open, before falling to Djokovic. Hard to see him reversing that result at the same venue a week later.
Big serving John Isner (16) looms as round of sixteen opposition, providing the American can sneak past Pablo Carreno Busta (20), and the Spaniard did defeat Isner in their only meeting in Cincinnati last year.
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Carreno Busta, and last fell to Isner in 2013, victorious in the last 7 meetings.
David Goffin (7) is seeded to play Djokovic in the quarter finals, but he has a tough first round match against Reilly Opelka, who beat Schwartzman and Berrettini in the Western & Southern Open. Filip Krajinovic (26) is a potential third round opponent, and the Serbian beat Dominic Thiem en route to a quarter final in the Western & Southern Open.
A round of sixteen match against Denis Shapovalov (12) is possible, and the pair have met once, in Tokyo last year, where Goffin was successful.
Djokovic should win a quarter final against Goffin.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4)
Tsitsipas was a semi finalist at the Western & Southern Open.
He plays Albert Ramos Vinolas in the first round, to whom he hasn’t lost in two meetings. Jozef Kovalik may be his second round opposition, and he did lose to the Slovakian, though three years ago in a Scheveningen Challenger on clay.
A third round contest with Borna Coric (27) is likely. Tsitsipas won their only clash in Rome in 2018, but it was a retirement after five games.
Last year was ordinary for both at Flushing Meadows, Tsitsipas losing to Rublev in the first round, and Coric withdrawing prior to his second round encounter with Dimitrov.
Cristian Garín (13) is seeded to play Tsitsipas in the round of sixteen, and they haven’t played each other before. Garin bombed out in the first round of the Western & Southern Open so doesn’t have many claims here.
The smart money is for a quarter final between Tsitsipas and fifth seed Alexander Zverev.
However, Zverev must overcome unseeded Kevin Anderson in probably the most anticipated first round match of the tournament.
Anderson, finalist in 2017, has slipped in the rankings due in large part to injury, and it took Tsitsipas to eliminate him from the Western & Southern Open second round.
Zverev has won all five of their contests.
Beyond Anderson, the draw opens up for Zverev, with a win over Hubert Hurkacz (24) likely but trouble brewing with an expected Diego Schwartzman (9) clash. Schwartzman leads 2-1 head to head, including a win at last years US Open in the fourth round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a lousy US Open return from his two visits, but I see a marked improvement this year with a quarter final victory over Diego Schwartzman.
Daniil Medvedev (3)
Last years finalist pushed Nadal to the brink, and proved that he has the game to win a major. As defending Western & Southern Open champion, he did ok, reaching the quarter finals, before Roberto Bautista Agut sent him packing in a tight three setter.
First round opponent Federico Delbonis, hasn’t played Medvedev before, and his US Open record is not astonishing, never having passed the second round.
Laslo Djere could be a second round complication, and he has beaten Medvedev, but only when the Russian was a shadow of the player he is now.
Guido Pella (29) has been giving the US Open a shot since 2012, and never reached the round of sixteen. The third round is where his run should end again this year, courtesy of Medvedev, despite Pella having defeated the third seed on both occasions they have met. (on clay)
Grigor Dimitrov (14) defeated Federer in the quarter finals last year and is favoured to reach the round of sixteen this year. Medvedev stopped the Bulgarian’s run in 2019, and should do likewise in 2020.
Matteo Berrettini (6) was a semi finalist last year, and although his form is questionable coming into the Open, he has a reasonable draw, and should reach the final eight.
The seedings will be reflected with Daniil Medvedev surviving a quarter final contest with Matteo Berrettini.
Dominic Thiem (2)
Thiem was second seed and lost his only match at the Western & Southern Open. Irrespective, his position as second seed in the US Open allows him the privilege of avoiding Djokovic until the final should they both end up there.
Thiem enjoys a 3-0 head to head record over Jaume Munar, his opening round opponent.
Bradley Klahn or Sumit Nagal will be the second round opponent and neither has faced Thiem before. Both are blessed with less than stellar US Open records and present no real threat to the second seed.
Marin Cilic (31), is one of only three former champions in the field, and the 2014 victor will give Thiem plenty to ponder should they meet in the third round. Cilic made the round of sixteen last year, and was a quarter finalist in 2018.
Félix Auger-Aliassime (15) is the expected opponent in the fourth round for either Thiem or Cilic, but he has some work or do before confirming that spot. Andy Murray is likely to play him in the second round. Dan Evans (23) is also a factor in that section.
Roberto Bautista Agut (8) pushed Djokovic to the absolute limit in the Western & Southern Open semi finals.
He has a tough first round match against Tennys Sandgren, 2020 Australian Open quarter finalist, and of more interest is a possible third round match between Bautista Agut and Western & Southern Open finalist Milos Raonic (25).
Karen Khachanov (11) is expected to await the winner in a round of sixteen encounter, but his US Open record is average at best, and he could face problems from Alex de Minaur (21).
Dominic Thiem (2) could just edge out Milos Raonic (25) in an excellent quarter final.
In short, these are my predicted final four (as per the seedings):
Novak Djokovic (1) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (4)
Daniil Medvedev (3) v Dominic Thiem (2)
Dark horse: Roberto Bautista Agut (8)
