2012: Andy Arrived, Serena Thrived

2012 posed many questions in the world of tennis.
How much of his amazing 2011 could Novak Djokovic hope to emulate?
Would this be the year for Caroline Wozniacki to place a Grand Slam title next to her number one ranking? Could Samantha Stosur ride the US Open triumph to finally reap some home GS benefits?  Would the year end championship wins of Petra Kvitova and Roger Federer roll into spectacular runs in the new year?  Would Andy Murray finally break through at the highest level and would Serena Williams exert her dominance again?
Unfortunately for Caroline and Samantha, the answers were in the negative, for Petra signs were promising with semi final appearances at the first 2 Grand Slam tournaments but the end of the year fizzled with erratic form and inadequate fitness.
Roger did have a great year, not spectacular by his standards but a Wimbledon win was memorable, the return to number one ranking notable if only for the statistic.  The true number one remained Novak Djokovic despite failing to defend his US Open and Wimbledon crowns.  He reached 3 finals at the highest level and won the year end championships defeating 5 top ten players in a week.

The second best performed male player at Grand Slam level in 2012 was Andy Murray.
Semi finalist at the Australian Open, finalist at Wimbledon and breakthrough winner of the US Open, Andy at last had laid claims to a place among the elite.  The Olympics provided a nice postscript with successive wins over Djokovic and Federer to take gold.

With Nadal sidelined, Murray has taken a temporary grip on the number 3 spot in the rankings; in fact David Ferrer is closing on his countryman for the number four seeding in Melbourne 2013.
A surprising dominator in women's tennis in early 2012 was Victora Azarenka.  Undefeated for several tournaments, including her first GS title at the Australian Open, it appeared that a battle for second may be of most interest.
Then Maria screamed NO! and dominated the clay not least that on Philippe Chatrier in Paris when she completed her career Grand Slam with the French Open.  In the process, the number one ranking moved back to Russia, and the two women would largely fight amongst themselves for the top two spots for the remainder of the year.

Realistically though these were only numbers,  just as Roger's number one ranking belied the truth.  The second part of the year was the possession of Serena Williams, the greatest player, male or female, of the past 15 years.  Serena tore through the field at Wimbledon twice to take out her 14th Grand Slam title and an Olympic gold medal.
Then in New York, the number one seeded Azarenka fought gallantly but couldn't deny the talent and determination of the now 15 times GS champ.  To put the finish on an incredible year, Serena cleaned up everyone she met in straight sets to win the season ender in Istanbul.
Serena is undeniably the best female player and she will be that for as long as she retains fitness and motivation.  Andy Murray will begin 2013 from a different place in his tennis time line.  He is, like Serena, the most recent winner of a singles Grand Slam crown, but is new to the feeling and knows that his best years lay ahead.  Serena could very well complete her illustrious career any time soon, and immediately be counted amongst the handful of greatest ever.  No one would blame her for walking away while at the top.
However, she is as fit as she has been for many years, and with her sister winning her final event of the year, the desire to play tennis is still very much alive in the Williams fold.
Players of the year Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic
Victoria Azarenka very close.

Serena and Vika set for US Open rematch

After only two days of the season ending WTA Championships in Istanbul, it has become clear that the number one ranked player in the world is in the right frame of mind and showing the necessary form and determination to again feature in the finale of the finale.  Victoria Azarenka is finishing 2012 in much the same way she began - winning everything.

However, the best player in the world, if not often ranked that these days, is just as threatening, and Serena Williams has dispensed with both Angelique Kerber and Li Na in straight sets.  True her win against China's number one failed to thrill, but if the opponent is offering little, even the finest can be dragged down a level or two in performance.  Pity the next opponent who is on the receiving end of an adequate Williams serving exhibition, let alone a Wimbledon or Olympics repeat.

The 1 and 3 seeds are set to meet in a round robin match before the semis are decided, but Serena has already qualified for one of those 4 spots, and Vika need only defeat an out of sorts Li Na to join her.

One of the semi finalists from the other group will be Maria Sharapova, having won both her matches so far.  Agnieszka Radwanska will complete the final four and fittingly see the top 4 ranked players fighting for the riches but only if she accounts for Sara Errani in her final round robin clash.  Her form suggests that this will occur, having pushed Sharapova to the absolute limit in their epic 3 setter.

Sara Errani can make it through should she defeat Sam Stosur and Radwanska.  Sam Stosur, who replaced Petra Kvitova following the Czech star's withdrawal due to illness, can also reach the semis, but must beat Errani first up, repeat her recent success over Sharapova, and hope that Errani defeats Radwanska.

My feeling is that all of this will count for little, because Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka should win their respective semi finals, regardless of the opposition they face, and we will have another clash between the two in a final to savour.

Djokovic Defiant

Nothing, not even winning all the remaining tournaments of 2012, would compensate Novak Djokovic from the disappointment of losing the US Open final to Andy Murray, especially after drawing level at two sets all and appearing to have the momentum.  However, as he has done all year, the world's best hard court player and best returner on any surface displayed to the Shanghai tennis fans, and those fortunate to be watching on their televisions at home that irrespective of world rankings, that the only important match is the current contest.

Andy Murray, forehand blazing, continued his Federer-conquering semi final form to rattle Djokovic in the first set, and at 5-4 30-0 in the second had the record books ready for a third successive entry of his name to the champions' honour roll.  Then, as in Melbourne where the Australian Open semi final and final featured the fighting qualities of the Serbian star at levels never before envisaged,  the match changed direction with a master class of innovation, skill and courage.

The deliberate between the legs shot from the baseline was stunning but not as delightful as the point winning, almost McEnroe-ish drop shot that brought the house down, and with it Andy's prospects.  Although Novak still needed to win the set to extend the match, most of those watching could see where this one was heading.  Or thought we could at least.

The tie break that eventuated was epic, and so it had to be if it wanted to be remembered as part of this great battle, and Andy again took charge with a handful of set points at various stages.  Djokovic played with daring and brilliance to save his skin, and when he had his third chance, won the set with a positive volley into the open court.  13-11 and Andy for all his winning ways could only show equality on the scoreboard.

Novak owned the third set, and after the longest three set match of the men's tour of 2012 he emerged with his third Masters title and an even firmer grip on the race to the ATP end of year Championships,  and End of Year number one ranking.

If Djokovic achieves the top position at the finish of a great year it will be fully deserved - he has won one Grand Slam title and been runner up twice - won 24 matches through those 4 tournaments, more than anyone else.  He has now won three of six finals in the Masters Series, again winning more matches than anyone else in that second tier category of tournament.

At no stage of 2012 has Novak Djokovic experienced a real trough of poor form - in 2011 his awesome feats up to and including the US Open and Davis Cup told on his body and he limped over the finish line with poor results in Paris and the ATP Championships.  This year has been ever consistent and at the end of the year we see him on a 10 match 2 tournament winning streak, looking the superior player on tour.   A final word for Andy Murray though - he is showing signs of becoming not just a threat for more major triumphs but 2013 may see him challenge for more than number three in the world.  He knows how to beat Federer now, and has the shots to place Djokovic in trouble.  If Rafa can come back fighting fit then  the best player in the world may be a true battle in four.

Right now the best player is certainly the winning Novak.

Spain v Serbia - Take 2

Yes, for all of the fighting tennis produced by Spanish 4th seed David Ferrer, on his way to overcoming a defiant Janko Tipsarevic in the quarter finals at Flushing Meadows, another stumbling block from Serbia awaits him in the semis.  Not a minor obstacle this one - only the best hard courter and best returner in the world - Novak Djokovic.

For Ferrer to make his Grand Slam tournament final debut, he has to be the first player this year in New York to take a set off Novak, and then two more after that.  Of course this is possible, but given the sheer consistent brilliance of his racqetwork over the past week or so, Djokovic poses a challenge maybe too large for even the most resilient of players, and Ferrer has real claims to that title.

What enabled Ferrer to prevail in his quarter final was his consistency of weighted groundstroke when the match was in the balance.  While the Tipsarevic serve was on song, Ferrer was unable to dictate sufficient points and so he could only watch and hope for a decline in the effectiveness of the Serbian first delivery.  Once it occured, and it happened when Janko was serving for a 5-2 lead in the fifth set, the momentum turned for a final time, and control of the match stayed with David.  Ultimately it took a tie break to give Spain a presence in the semis, but even if it went the distance surely the same result would have been achieved.

Janko Tipsarevic can consider himself unlucky - he made the running for most of the match, and was only a few agonising minutes from the finishing line before the fatal stumble.  However, David Ferrer has a history of picking up the pieces of these stumbles and furnishing them into personal success.

He cannot rely on a similar stumble from the super slick Djokovic who played a fantastic match against Del Potro in his quarter final, where the standard of tennis grew throughout.  Straight sets belied the closeness of the contest.  If you were to rank the 4 quarter finalists from this part of the draw in terms of tennis played it would be Djokovic clearly atop, Del Potro clearly second, and a tie for third.  This is Ferrer's challenge - to raise his game sufficiently to give the world number 2 cause for worry, because victory will not be his by waiting for a drop in standard from Djokovic.  

Vika & Sam supply the quality

As has become tradition rain in 2012 serves to frustrate organisers of the US Open, a privilege once the domain of Wimbledon for bragging rights amongst the majors.  Before the schedule was significantly affected, one of the highlights of the event was delivered to us.  It became a two course affair - pre and post rain - but the post rain piece of the quarter final between Vika Azarenka and Samantha Stosur consisted of some of the best contested women's tennis for some time.

Stosur's woeful record against the world number one continued with a first set dominated by Azarenka 6-1, and against all that momentum and history the defending champion drew on her well of reserves to match it with the talented Belarusian in most departments.  Casting self doubt aside, Stosur attacked with her forehand, knowing full well that some of her risk taking would be met with rifled winners either side of her because that is what Azarenka can do better than most.

However the risk can have a reward and the percentages began to favour Stosur as she pursued her revised game plan.  Increasingly the Azarenka serve appeared breakable, not dramatically but at least to the point where this became a contest.  Sam broke to lead 1-0 in the second set and led 40-15 on serve only for Vika to immediately strike back.  The stakes were high and the standard just as elevated for the remainder of the set and it was the Australian who managed to achieve the vital break in the ninth game.  The serve served her well and the match sat at a set apiece.

The final set unfortunately at the US Open is always decided by a tie-break should it reach 6-6.  It is the only Grand Slam tournament to abbreviate in this fashion and something that annoyingly denies us of some thrilling finishes in normal time by throwing in a lottery to free the impasse.

Of course some tiebreaks can be wonderful cameos and for this small mercy we have to be thankful.

For most of set three Azarenka looked assured of sprinting to the line and avoiding the tie-break.  She broke Stosur in the fourth game and served for a 4-1 lead.  Failed there thanks to a determined and skillful returning performance from the 7th seed.  Again Vika forced the issue to lead 4-2 with serve to come.  Once more Sam pushed it back with another thoughtful and effective returning game.

Then the players decided that holding serve had some merit and so 3-4 with Stosur at the line became 5-5 through this method.  Stosur pressured Azarenka to break point and asked the most serious question of the match yet of the Australian Open champion.  Vika answered clearly enough with her first ace, and with that flowed on to 6-5.  Disappointed at not capitalising on the break point, Sam steadied to take the match to a deciding tie-break which in my opinion favoured Azarenka.  Had the match gone to advantage Stosur may have had the legs to outlast Azarenka.

Quickly Stosur was down 4-0 and the court interviewer was preparing for Azarenka to answer questions surrounding her victory.  However, as had been the pattern for the whole match Stosur fought hard to level at 5-5.  With her next serve Sam would be holding match point on Vika's serve or be defending Vika's serve for the semi final spot.  The latter prevailed, and with the first match point for either player, the number one seed emerged victorious to reach her first US Open semi final.

6-1 4-6 7-6 (5) A top quality quarter final, one which concluded Samantha Stosur's honourable defence of her title, and announced Victoria Azarenka as the best bet from the top half of the draw to offer some resistance to the irresistible Serena Williams.    

Early Exit as Kim bids another farewell

As the balls continue to be hit with menacing power and deft touch to various parts of Queens, the first few days of US Open 2012 have provided little to suggest that the major spoils at the end of the fortnight won't be shared amongst the very elite in both the women's and mens draws.
Roger and Novak are on winning runs of one match each, convincing their luckless opponents that an early surrender was the best way to secure a first round loser's cheque.  Of course the magnitude of that prize is in the news and to be fair to the 64 players who spoil us with displays of classical shot making on their polished routes to defeat, surely more money needs to be thrown at failure and mediocrity.  I suspect we will see the full field of men in Melbourne in January - this is an empty threat.

After her last three attempts to win the US Open were all successful, Kim Clijsters finally had her sequence of wins at Flushing Meadow terminated in the second round courtesy of Brit Laura Robson.  Clearly the two tie break success had come upon the left over Olympic spirit which British athletes are riding for all that it is worth.  Sad to see Kim retire in this fashion but Laura has saved her the problem of a third round clash with the shockingly in-form 9th seed Li Na.

Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick are into the second round, and the two former winners of this title are playing enough quality tennis to proceed a bit further until they run into serious trouble - David Ferrer is seeded number four due to Rafa's absence, and is waiting to eat the Australian in round three should they both reach that match up.

Tonight is the second round match from hell for Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber.  For fans it is potentially the match of the tournament so far - Kerber in stellar form all year and Venus finding much of her old magic just in time for her home major.  A three setter has to be the only way to find the winner from this, and I suspect  the big crowd will be disappointed as last year's semi finalist knocks the 2000-2001 champ out of the race.

Last year's surprise winner Samantha Stosur has begun her defence splendidly, dropping only 5 games in her first two matches and with it showing everyone some form and consistency sorely missing from most of her year.  Naturally it will be a more testing assignment should she reach the fourth round and a likely clash with Li Na.  However the head to head record is heavily in Stosur's favour.

Big name casualties from the first round have included men's 10th seed Juan Monaco, who surrendered a two set lead to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.  Also gone is 2010 French Open champ Francesca Schiavone, although her star has faded somewhat over the last several months together with her ranking.

My predictions for the singles remain as they were - Djokovic to successfully defend, and Serena Williams to go one better than last year.  Now that she and her sister have decided to enter the doubles comp, they will be my best bet to take that title as well, and if not certainly cause the most havoc along the way.

A Long Year It's Been BUT One Major To Go!

Well the show has begun and the first act consisted of the live draw - only the Internet age could allow something as simple as drawing names out of a US Open trophy to be as riveting as it was.

Copious amounts of press photographers on hand to zoom in on shots of an ever evolving Men's Singles Draw soon to be followed by... yes you guessed it the Womens Singles sheet.  I was hooked - in the early morning Australian Eastern time staring at the computer screen wondering whether Andy Murray would feature in the Federer or Djokovic half of the draw.  Who were going to face the dreaded floaters like Venus Williams and Kim Clijsters?  Both ranked lower than their capabilities (Venus unseeded altogether), but funnily enough the last 2 women to have won successive US Open crowns and not a joyful sight at the other end of the court for the top seeds early in the event.

The answers came quickly, and Roger could be heard somewhere swearing that the wretched Serb had received the better end of the stick by avoiding the Murray factor until the final, should both reach that far.  Mind you I don't believe that Andy poses too much of a threat to either of the 2 top seeds because the depth in mens tennis, whatever spin you might try to put on it, is fairly thin at the elite level.
True Murray played out of his skin at Wimbledon to reach his first final and then wipe out both Novak and Roger to win Olympic gold at the same venue.  However this is hard court and the ones that have actually won at Flushing Meadows love it to death.

Del Potro won here in 2009 and is playing well but unluckily again is under an injury cloud coming into this year's event.  Novak should dispense with him quite swiftly should he so be required.  I really cannot see anything else in this 128 field to change the final from being a number 1 and 2 seed benefit - Ferrer, Tsonga, Isner and the like will be mere sideshows along the way and the fun will be to see what upsets occur before the semis.

Novak will eventually exact his revenge on Roger for the Cincinatti incident - that bagel was not nice to taste even if it was made from Swiss ingredients - but more so for the Wimbledon semi defeat.  Defending his title will be a proud day for Mr Djokovic.