One thing that we cannot accuse Juan Martin Del Potro of is peaking too early. I don't know what game was being put on display in the first set but it was not the A game - B, C or D for that matter. Apart from the fact that successful first serves were as rare as an Australian winning the home Grand Slam title, court position was faulty and the net attracted any balls that didn't sail long, several of the latter missing by the width of the Yarra. To his credit, Mannarino graciously accepted the charity and even scored with some worthy winners off his own racquet. The drop shot was used to great effect, each time catching the South American off balance. The set went to France 6-2, and Del Potro needed to dial into this match rather soon, because right now his number was disconnected.
When the Argentine serve is on, it makes one feel safe that a victory is around the next corner, and to prove that point, Del Potro elected to rely on his first delivery into court for the greater part of set number two. The improvement in all parts of his game was in sync with the serve and the forehand began to be the weapon it usually is. Mannarino meantime had a problem - the quantity of unforced errors caught and overtook the number of winners as quick as Vettel in a Red Bull or a rat on Red Bull up that famous drain pipe. This would be the best standard of tennis we would see for the match, and Del Potro had levelled things by taking the set 6-1.
The third set saw a return to inexplicable errors from both players but it became more difficult to understand the ones contributed from Argentina. Somehow fumbling his way to 4-3 with a break, then fumbling still more to lose the next two games, one had the feeling that Del Potro had lost control of the match - points were being won or lost on the French racquet. Enough of those points were lost for the set to be gifted to the 11th seed and he took a statistically secure two sets to one advantage as the players travelled into the next phase of the clash.
In between some horrible shots that even a C grade club player wouldn't think of playing, Del Potro played sufficient winning tennis to eke out another break of serve in the fourth set. The forehand was the saviour whenever things became tight, and the tightness was most evident on the French side of the net. For all that, Del Potro could not accelerate away, and needed to serve it out at 5-4, a duty he performed purposefully if not spectacularly.
In fact the lack lustre nature of the four set victory by Juan Martin Del Potro diminishes the credit that Mannarino deserves. For the several times Del Potro threatened to overwhelm the less equipped Frenchman, he refused to buckle as traditional first round losers might, and gave the Argentine player more time on court than he would have anticipated.
Juan survives 2-6 6-1 7-5 6-4
Monday, 16 January 2012
Day One - Del Potro on show
Well I made the long trek from the other side of Melbourne and am seated in Hisense Arena in perfect position to watch Juan Martin Del Potro kick off his 2012 Aus Open campaign. I have predicted him to make the quarters with even a real chance of knocking off Roger to make the semis, and he should not have too many problems handed him from Frenchman Mannarino.
The weather has all of a sudden become hot, a seasonal change brought upon by the existance of the Australian Open, and for the most part the tennis witnessed today will follow suit. On Rod Laver Arena as this match unfolds Vika Azarenka brings her bag of tricks to town. She will have won her match in straight sets, be showered and changed and out shopping before Del Potro has finished with his opponent.
The weather has all of a sudden become hot, a seasonal change brought upon by the existance of the Australian Open, and for the most part the tennis witnessed today will follow suit. On Rod Laver Arena as this match unfolds Vika Azarenka brings her bag of tricks to town. She will have won her match in straight sets, be showered and changed and out shopping before Del Potro has finished with his opponent.
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Last Chance Oz Open Preview and Guesswork - Part Two
Women's tennis has annoyingly taken a back seat to the male version, when for quite some time the depth, fascination and unpredictability has belonged to the girls.
Now I am armed to the teeth with excuses why my selections fail to win WTA tournaments and the ITF run Grand Slam events. The competition amongst female racquet wielders is as intense and engrossing as I can ever recall. No one, two or few players holds command at the top of the tree as did in the periods such as Navritolova/Evert, Graf/Seles, Williams/Williams and S. Williams.
Coming into the 2012 Australian Open, one would ordinarily have had Serena as clear favourite on the back of her past record here - 5 times winner and undefeated in her last 14 matches at Melbourne Park.
She has demonstrated her ability to come back from extreme adversity quicker than mere humans, and I for one fear for my life if I don't predict that her 6th title is less than a fortnight away.
What is driving the doubts surrounding the continuance of a Serena dominance? Well, the emergence of another Czech-born left-hander explains it a little. Petra Kvitova has risen from last year's Aus Open quarter final break through to claim the moral if not statistical number one ranking in the world. A Wimbledon champion and WTA season ending champion, the quietly spoken Kvitova is a contrast to her racket raising racquet work.
Then there is Kim Clijsters, who when she takes some time off from her gentle caring nature as Mummy Kim, launches deadly assaults on tennis balls and opponents that little daughters should not be seeing. Whatever Kim's ranking, she proves that Grand Slam titles are winnable, and this title is hers to defend.
Kim defeated a gallant Li Na in the final last year, and the Chinese late bloomer blossomed further on the clay in Paris to officially declare her credentials as a bona fide contender at any Grand Slam tournament. Li Na has bounced back strongly following a poor second half of 2011 and should she forge a path past Kim in the 4th round may have Caroline Wozniacki with which to contend in the quarters. (Wozniacki fell to Li Na in the semis last year)
It was Vika Azarenka who denied Li Na successive Sydney International victories this week, and this year may well be the time for the Belarusian to make some finals at grand Slam events. The fans have waiting for awhile now, and Vika has been screaming more than everyone for it to happen. (I just wish she would tone down those screams a little when she sets foot on the court - 100% would suffice)
It is not an easy quarter of the draw, with the Polish player of the moment Agnieszka Radwanska expected to be waiting as opponent number 5 when quarter finals begin.
I am predicting a replay of the Sydney final in the semi final from the top half of the draw - Li Na to battle Vika Azarenka.
The bottom half of the draw provides more reason for the intrigue in women's tennis. In addition to Petra Kvitova, we have Maria Sharapova, whose injury interrupted career has still furnished her trophy cabinet with silverware galore - including 3 Grand Slam titles - the last of those at Melbourne Park 4 years ago. 2011 proved once more that she has the weapons to mount serious challenges to any player on any given day, provided that she remembers to bring her serve with her.
Marion Bartoli and Sam Stosur both finished 2011 in the top ten and of course Sam won the final Grand Slam title of the year in New York. The fact that she, Li Na and Petra Kvitova were debut winners of GS titles in the one year endorses the view that the women's game is truly alive and thriving, and should be given universal due credit, and not put up with the "support act" dismissal of some media outlets. Thankfully, that dinosaur mentality is diminishing sharply.
Vera Zvonareva has been a constant in the top ten for quite some time and her efforts at the highest level deserve praise. Her reward unfortunately is a 4th round encounter, should both players make it that far, with Serena Williams. I know that Vera was so looking forward to a quarter final clash with another Russian Maria Sharapova, but I'm afraid that an American will spoil that party. Not that Maria is assured that spot - her screams of delight may very well turn to screams of despair if Sabine Lisicki turns on some of her Wimbledon form, or if Sveta Kuznetsova can hop in her time machine back to 2009 and bring back some of that tennis.
Although Bartoli has presented a better case for consideration this summer than Samatha Stosur, I do feel that the Australian can overcome her historical under performance here, just as she did in New York last year. Not to the same extent, because her win over Bartoli will be her last in the 2012 Aus Open. Kvitova will sign Stosur's exit papers as she did in 2011.
In fact it will be a semi final to behold - Petra Kvitova the future of tennis against Serena Williams the present and quite a bit of the past of tennis.
January 28 will be Serena Williams day, her sixth Australian Open clinched with her 21st win in succession here. Her worthy opponent will have importantly made her first Grand Slam final, and expect Victoria Azarenka to battle for the number one ranking all year long.
Now I am armed to the teeth with excuses why my selections fail to win WTA tournaments and the ITF run Grand Slam events. The competition amongst female racquet wielders is as intense and engrossing as I can ever recall. No one, two or few players holds command at the top of the tree as did in the periods such as Navritolova/Evert, Graf/Seles, Williams/Williams and S. Williams.
Coming into the 2012 Australian Open, one would ordinarily have had Serena as clear favourite on the back of her past record here - 5 times winner and undefeated in her last 14 matches at Melbourne Park.
She has demonstrated her ability to come back from extreme adversity quicker than mere humans, and I for one fear for my life if I don't predict that her 6th title is less than a fortnight away.
What is driving the doubts surrounding the continuance of a Serena dominance? Well, the emergence of another Czech-born left-hander explains it a little. Petra Kvitova has risen from last year's Aus Open quarter final break through to claim the moral if not statistical number one ranking in the world. A Wimbledon champion and WTA season ending champion, the quietly spoken Kvitova is a contrast to her racket raising racquet work.
Then there is Kim Clijsters, who when she takes some time off from her gentle caring nature as Mummy Kim, launches deadly assaults on tennis balls and opponents that little daughters should not be seeing. Whatever Kim's ranking, she proves that Grand Slam titles are winnable, and this title is hers to defend.
Kim defeated a gallant Li Na in the final last year, and the Chinese late bloomer blossomed further on the clay in Paris to officially declare her credentials as a bona fide contender at any Grand Slam tournament. Li Na has bounced back strongly following a poor second half of 2011 and should she forge a path past Kim in the 4th round may have Caroline Wozniacki with which to contend in the quarters. (Wozniacki fell to Li Na in the semis last year)
It was Vika Azarenka who denied Li Na successive Sydney International victories this week, and this year may well be the time for the Belarusian to make some finals at grand Slam events. The fans have waiting for awhile now, and Vika has been screaming more than everyone for it to happen. (I just wish she would tone down those screams a little when she sets foot on the court - 100% would suffice)
It is not an easy quarter of the draw, with the Polish player of the moment Agnieszka Radwanska expected to be waiting as opponent number 5 when quarter finals begin.
I am predicting a replay of the Sydney final in the semi final from the top half of the draw - Li Na to battle Vika Azarenka.
The bottom half of the draw provides more reason for the intrigue in women's tennis. In addition to Petra Kvitova, we have Maria Sharapova, whose injury interrupted career has still furnished her trophy cabinet with silverware galore - including 3 Grand Slam titles - the last of those at Melbourne Park 4 years ago. 2011 proved once more that she has the weapons to mount serious challenges to any player on any given day, provided that she remembers to bring her serve with her.
Marion Bartoli and Sam Stosur both finished 2011 in the top ten and of course Sam won the final Grand Slam title of the year in New York. The fact that she, Li Na and Petra Kvitova were debut winners of GS titles in the one year endorses the view that the women's game is truly alive and thriving, and should be given universal due credit, and not put up with the "support act" dismissal of some media outlets. Thankfully, that dinosaur mentality is diminishing sharply.
Vera Zvonareva has been a constant in the top ten for quite some time and her efforts at the highest level deserve praise. Her reward unfortunately is a 4th round encounter, should both players make it that far, with Serena Williams. I know that Vera was so looking forward to a quarter final clash with another Russian Maria Sharapova, but I'm afraid that an American will spoil that party. Not that Maria is assured that spot - her screams of delight may very well turn to screams of despair if Sabine Lisicki turns on some of her Wimbledon form, or if Sveta Kuznetsova can hop in her time machine back to 2009 and bring back some of that tennis.
Although Bartoli has presented a better case for consideration this summer than Samatha Stosur, I do feel that the Australian can overcome her historical under performance here, just as she did in New York last year. Not to the same extent, because her win over Bartoli will be her last in the 2012 Aus Open. Kvitova will sign Stosur's exit papers as she did in 2011.
In fact it will be a semi final to behold - Petra Kvitova the future of tennis against Serena Williams the present and quite a bit of the past of tennis.
January 28 will be Serena Williams day, her sixth Australian Open clinched with her 21st win in succession here. Her worthy opponent will have importantly made her first Grand Slam final, and expect Victoria Azarenka to battle for the number one ranking all year long.
Last Chance Oz Open Preview and Guesswork - Part One
Sure I have mentioned in passing a few snippets of what i believe may transpire in the next 2 weeks, some of it even tennis related, but now I am forced to wager what few grams of credibility left within me on serious predictions for who will proceed and how far that procession will extend through the 2012 Australian Open Steeplechase.
In singles there will be 7 hurdles to overcome successfully in order for a legitimate claim to be processed before lifting the trophy overhead on 28 or 29 January. This is about the Mens Singles.
Before discussing the chances of this year's favourites, let us concentrate for awhile on Novak Djokovic, who I really feel has had the type of preparation which could cause a surprise amongst the more fancied men in the draw. The young Serbian player has a bright future, and could become one of the most feared players in the future if he can iron out a few faults within his game. Aus Open 2012 could well be the tournament in which he finally realises the potential promised for the last few years.
Another from left field is the veteran Swiss journeyman Roger Federer. Roger has spent over 10 years on tour, and without causing much of a stir amongst the top echelon, has managed to eke out a living from the sport he obviously loves. Despite what you may be told, the Federer backhand and increased reliability on serve put him in with a real show against his qualifier opponent in the first round. Who knows what could happen should he come out the other end of that tough one unscathed?
Clearly these are predictions on gut instinct with no real match winning form in Grand Slam tournaments from which to draw.
In sharp contrast we have Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt, between them winners of 3 Grand Slam singles titles, and a record of final and semi final appearances of which to be proud. The tragedy of the rankings system sees these two scheduled to meet in the second round, and so the expected Roddick-Hewitt Aus Open Final will not eventuate. Only one of the 2 favourites will make it into the second week. While my heart would like to see Lleyton fly the Aussie flag, I must go with American Andy - his has been the most recent Grand Slam championship success - the US Open a couple of years ago in 2003.
I am going out on a short and thin limb here, but I believe that Roddick can be upset by Djokovic in the 4th round, but then again Canadian Milos Raonic may do the upsetting on Novak's behalf in the round before. Raonic defeated Janko Tipsarevic in Chennai earlier in the month, and is a genuine threat to the top ten this year, and it could be very early in the season.
Speaking of the second ranked Serbian player, Janko will possibly feature in one of the finest matches in the round of 16 if he and Spain's David Ferrer (winner in Auckland a day or so ago) reach that impasse.
Right now I am going to gripe about the quarter final seedings. Novak Djokovic is the number one player by plenty and should be seeded to play the lowest ranked of the quarter finalists.
Yet he is drawn to play Ferrer, the 5th seed. Ferrer himself should not be expected to play anyone other than Andy Murray, the 4th seed.
No it's Federer, the 3rd seed, who is drawn to play the 8th seed, Fish. Murray is drawn to face 6th seed Tsonga. Whatever happened to 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5? Well Rafa v Berdych fits the logical draw, the other is a lottery rewarding pure luck and not performance and ranking.
OK that is out of my system - publicly at least - now back to some of those names. Berdych perfomed well in Hopman Cup singles and has the weaponry to push many of the top players, but his very best can be mitigated somewhat by inopportune lapses into inadequacy and poor judgement. It would take the sort of performance that booted Roger out of Wimbledon early in 2010 to make me consider him any sort of chance of taking Rafa beyond 3 or 4 sets in the quarters. A finals berth after successive wins over Nadal and Federer is a possibility if Berdych is having a great dream.
Tsonga, though is another matter altogether - for a start he is French not Czech. He has been to the finals here, albeit 4 years ago, but now he presents as a much more polished all round player with a number of weapons with which to claim titles and satisfy many of the demands of a Grand Slam tournament. To be quite blunt his quarter of the draw is rather soft on paper. At his best none of the players around him pose real problems - even the quarter-final opponent is probably the winner of Murray and Monfils, the latter who he has recently dispatched in Doha, the former who is still carrying demons from his past 2 embarassing finals here.
For me it is a Djokovic-Tsonga semi final in the top half of the draw, the same match-up we witnessed at Wimbledon last year. Salivating prospect indeed.
Rafa Nadal, even if not quite fully fit, has no opponents in his quarter of any real concern - the 4th round is drawn to be a clash with John Isner but the American is out of form and I fancy Nalbandian's chances to be the Spanish bull's 4th victim this event.
Berdych will not have the all court game to close off the Rafa shot making and so one semi spot should belong to Nadal.
Roger Federer will march straight into a quarter-final, leaving behind carnage possibly made up of Melzer and either Tomic (winner at Kooyong) or Brisbane runner-up Dolgopolov.
I hope the quarter final is Federer against his 2009 US Open nemesis Juan Martin Del Potro because the 11th seeded Argentine star is on the way back to the top few in the world, and has a catalogue of shots that could trouble the Swiss great. Nothing about the players in Del Potro's quarter should send a single shiver down the South American back, not even the 8 seed Mardy Fish, who is prone to bouts of inconsistency just at present.
Semi Final in the bottom half of the draw: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer (but Del Potro is not far away at all)
Djokovic will in my humble and underwhelming opinion, defeat Federer in the final. However things will start happening on court tomorrow, and my opinion will continue to change like the wind, not in esteem certainly, but in content.
In singles there will be 7 hurdles to overcome successfully in order for a legitimate claim to be processed before lifting the trophy overhead on 28 or 29 January. This is about the Mens Singles.
Before discussing the chances of this year's favourites, let us concentrate for awhile on Novak Djokovic, who I really feel has had the type of preparation which could cause a surprise amongst the more fancied men in the draw. The young Serbian player has a bright future, and could become one of the most feared players in the future if he can iron out a few faults within his game. Aus Open 2012 could well be the tournament in which he finally realises the potential promised for the last few years.
Another from left field is the veteran Swiss journeyman Roger Federer. Roger has spent over 10 years on tour, and without causing much of a stir amongst the top echelon, has managed to eke out a living from the sport he obviously loves. Despite what you may be told, the Federer backhand and increased reliability on serve put him in with a real show against his qualifier opponent in the first round. Who knows what could happen should he come out the other end of that tough one unscathed?
Clearly these are predictions on gut instinct with no real match winning form in Grand Slam tournaments from which to draw.
In sharp contrast we have Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt, between them winners of 3 Grand Slam singles titles, and a record of final and semi final appearances of which to be proud. The tragedy of the rankings system sees these two scheduled to meet in the second round, and so the expected Roddick-Hewitt Aus Open Final will not eventuate. Only one of the 2 favourites will make it into the second week. While my heart would like to see Lleyton fly the Aussie flag, I must go with American Andy - his has been the most recent Grand Slam championship success - the US Open a couple of years ago in 2003.
I am going out on a short and thin limb here, but I believe that Roddick can be upset by Djokovic in the 4th round, but then again Canadian Milos Raonic may do the upsetting on Novak's behalf in the round before. Raonic defeated Janko Tipsarevic in Chennai earlier in the month, and is a genuine threat to the top ten this year, and it could be very early in the season.
Speaking of the second ranked Serbian player, Janko will possibly feature in one of the finest matches in the round of 16 if he and Spain's David Ferrer (winner in Auckland a day or so ago) reach that impasse.
Right now I am going to gripe about the quarter final seedings. Novak Djokovic is the number one player by plenty and should be seeded to play the lowest ranked of the quarter finalists.
Yet he is drawn to play Ferrer, the 5th seed. Ferrer himself should not be expected to play anyone other than Andy Murray, the 4th seed.
No it's Federer, the 3rd seed, who is drawn to play the 8th seed, Fish. Murray is drawn to face 6th seed Tsonga. Whatever happened to 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5? Well Rafa v Berdych fits the logical draw, the other is a lottery rewarding pure luck and not performance and ranking.
OK that is out of my system - publicly at least - now back to some of those names. Berdych perfomed well in Hopman Cup singles and has the weaponry to push many of the top players, but his very best can be mitigated somewhat by inopportune lapses into inadequacy and poor judgement. It would take the sort of performance that booted Roger out of Wimbledon early in 2010 to make me consider him any sort of chance of taking Rafa beyond 3 or 4 sets in the quarters. A finals berth after successive wins over Nadal and Federer is a possibility if Berdych is having a great dream.
Tsonga, though is another matter altogether - for a start he is French not Czech. He has been to the finals here, albeit 4 years ago, but now he presents as a much more polished all round player with a number of weapons with which to claim titles and satisfy many of the demands of a Grand Slam tournament. To be quite blunt his quarter of the draw is rather soft on paper. At his best none of the players around him pose real problems - even the quarter-final opponent is probably the winner of Murray and Monfils, the latter who he has recently dispatched in Doha, the former who is still carrying demons from his past 2 embarassing finals here.
For me it is a Djokovic-Tsonga semi final in the top half of the draw, the same match-up we witnessed at Wimbledon last year. Salivating prospect indeed.
Rafa Nadal, even if not quite fully fit, has no opponents in his quarter of any real concern - the 4th round is drawn to be a clash with John Isner but the American is out of form and I fancy Nalbandian's chances to be the Spanish bull's 4th victim this event.
Berdych will not have the all court game to close off the Rafa shot making and so one semi spot should belong to Nadal.
Roger Federer will march straight into a quarter-final, leaving behind carnage possibly made up of Melzer and either Tomic (winner at Kooyong) or Brisbane runner-up Dolgopolov.
I hope the quarter final is Federer against his 2009 US Open nemesis Juan Martin Del Potro because the 11th seeded Argentine star is on the way back to the top few in the world, and has a catalogue of shots that could trouble the Swiss great. Nothing about the players in Del Potro's quarter should send a single shiver down the South American back, not even the 8 seed Mardy Fish, who is prone to bouts of inconsistency just at present.
Semi Final in the bottom half of the draw: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer (but Del Potro is not far away at all)
Djokovic will in my humble and underwhelming opinion, defeat Federer in the final. However things will start happening on court tomorrow, and my opinion will continue to change like the wind, not in esteem certainly, but in content.
Saturday, 14 January 2012
Aus Open Draw on Friday 13th - horror for some?
The fascination with the singles draw at a Grand Slam tournament is as much warranted as losing sleep over what may be the latest haircut Andy Roddick will impose upon his legion of Aussie fans.
Headlines all across the nation's prime time news coverage abound with the depth of unkindness inflicted by the mean old draw upon the Australian players, with perhaps the exception of Sam Stosur. That noted exception is hardly a ringing endorsement of the court skills of Sorana Cirstea one feels.
Let's face it, any player of the female persuasion would be a tough first round match up for the cardboard cut out of a US Open champion, and the Romanian is indeed a female. But I must be realistic - things do become easier for her should Sam win through the early rounds. It's only former Grand Slam finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round before Petra Kvitova awaits her in the quarter finals.
Underlying all this preposterous predicting is the tiny assumption that seeded players will win all their matches against lower ranked opponents and thus create the sumptuous contests that the recipes within the draw have directed.
Take one Belgian 4 time Grand Slam singles champion, add a slightly suspect back, and mix well with a Chinese Roland Garros winner. Bake the product in an open heat, covering well if the temperature reaches a certain level. Serve with one tennis ball, two if necessary.
This is the likely 4th round match between last year's finalists Kim Clijsters and Li Na. (or Na Li depending on which school, website or scoreboard to which you went) The 5th seed Li was very close to defending her title in Sydney last night only to be screamed off the court by Vika Azarenka, so is very much one of the in form women coming into Melbourne. Also remember that the runner-up in Sydney has gone on to make the final of the Aus Open in the last 3 years (winning the last 2).
Much has been made of Bernard Tomic, mainly because there is no one else in men's tennis in Australia of which to make anything. Well Bernie's been doing OK, losing in Brisbane to the eventual winner Andy "he of the fewest smiles granted a human being" Murray, before acquitting himself immaculately at Kooyong in the glorified hit-up between 8 of the best players in the world too lazy to fight for ATP points under pressure in meaningful tournaments.
The draw damaged Tomic according to experts - unnamed but most likely newsroom summer holiday temps asked to provide some headlines to poorly motivated sports editors. Well maybe he could have asked for a potentially easier opponent to play first up, but one of the guys from the tennis club down the road, who the draw had initially arranged for Bernard, had double booked and instead is playing a round of golf. So the contingency is 22nd seed Fernando Verdasco, the former semi-finalist here.
OK a little perspective should be placed into this discussion - it was 3 years ago that Verdasco played a legendary match against Rafa Nadal that saw him centimetres away from the Aus Open Final. Tomic was barely 16 at the time. In the time elapsed since then, Tomic has improved to the point where he nearly earned a seed for this year's Open, and Verdasco has never seen the same glory, indeed has fallen to 5th ranked Spaniard in the world. Fernando has not beaten a top ten player since his win over countryman Almagro in Switzerland last July - his only such success for the year.
If the draw did no favours it failed to do them for Verdasco, a player desperate for court time not having played competitively for over 2 months.
The draw is merely a facility - to win a Grand Slam singles tournament a player needs 7 wins (more if you want to create history as a qualifier) and sooner or later one of those wins will need to be against a top player. If you draw a top player early enough it just may be to your benefit because he or she may not have peaked. So do as the cliche master says and treat each match as tough. For Roger, Rafa, Serena, Petra and co, let the cliche kick in after a few rounds.
Headlines all across the nation's prime time news coverage abound with the depth of unkindness inflicted by the mean old draw upon the Australian players, with perhaps the exception of Sam Stosur. That noted exception is hardly a ringing endorsement of the court skills of Sorana Cirstea one feels.
Let's face it, any player of the female persuasion would be a tough first round match up for the cardboard cut out of a US Open champion, and the Romanian is indeed a female. But I must be realistic - things do become easier for her should Sam win through the early rounds. It's only former Grand Slam finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round before Petra Kvitova awaits her in the quarter finals.
Underlying all this preposterous predicting is the tiny assumption that seeded players will win all their matches against lower ranked opponents and thus create the sumptuous contests that the recipes within the draw have directed.
Take one Belgian 4 time Grand Slam singles champion, add a slightly suspect back, and mix well with a Chinese Roland Garros winner. Bake the product in an open heat, covering well if the temperature reaches a certain level. Serve with one tennis ball, two if necessary.
This is the likely 4th round match between last year's finalists Kim Clijsters and Li Na. (or Na Li depending on which school, website or scoreboard to which you went) The 5th seed Li was very close to defending her title in Sydney last night only to be screamed off the court by Vika Azarenka, so is very much one of the in form women coming into Melbourne. Also remember that the runner-up in Sydney has gone on to make the final of the Aus Open in the last 3 years (winning the last 2).
Much has been made of Bernard Tomic, mainly because there is no one else in men's tennis in Australia of which to make anything. Well Bernie's been doing OK, losing in Brisbane to the eventual winner Andy "he of the fewest smiles granted a human being" Murray, before acquitting himself immaculately at Kooyong in the glorified hit-up between 8 of the best players in the world too lazy to fight for ATP points under pressure in meaningful tournaments.
The draw damaged Tomic according to experts - unnamed but most likely newsroom summer holiday temps asked to provide some headlines to poorly motivated sports editors. Well maybe he could have asked for a potentially easier opponent to play first up, but one of the guys from the tennis club down the road, who the draw had initially arranged for Bernard, had double booked and instead is playing a round of golf. So the contingency is 22nd seed Fernando Verdasco, the former semi-finalist here.
OK a little perspective should be placed into this discussion - it was 3 years ago that Verdasco played a legendary match against Rafa Nadal that saw him centimetres away from the Aus Open Final. Tomic was barely 16 at the time. In the time elapsed since then, Tomic has improved to the point where he nearly earned a seed for this year's Open, and Verdasco has never seen the same glory, indeed has fallen to 5th ranked Spaniard in the world. Fernando has not beaten a top ten player since his win over countryman Almagro in Switzerland last July - his only such success for the year.
If the draw did no favours it failed to do them for Verdasco, a player desperate for court time not having played competitively for over 2 months.
The draw is merely a facility - to win a Grand Slam singles tournament a player needs 7 wins (more if you want to create history as a qualifier) and sooner or later one of those wins will need to be against a top player. If you draw a top player early enough it just may be to your benefit because he or she may not have peaked. So do as the cliche master says and treat each match as tough. For Roger, Rafa, Serena, Petra and co, let the cliche kick in after a few rounds.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Upsets and Injuries leading into Aus Open
As if the Australian Open didn't always offer a 2 week smorgasbord of unpredictability, 2012 is creating further intrigue with form and injury in lead up tournaments playing havoc with early predictions and betting markets.
Firstly the women - the last singles Grand Slam title winner, Samantha Stosur, has had three hit outs in the Australian summer, the last 2 straight sets losses, and hardly the preparation to inspire confidence in her supporters, let alone the player herself.
Andrea Petkovic, the top ten star from Germany has denied us her inimitable victory dances post winning matches due to stress fractures in her back forcing withdrawal from Melbourne.
Kim Clijsters, defending champion, is battling to overcome back problems of her own, though we are assured she will be OK come the 16th.
Serena looks in the best condition ever seen for an Australian Open campaign, and the ankle injury one hopes is but a passing niggle.
The 2 top ranked women in the world bowed out of the Sydney event earlier than expected, Wozniacki at the hands of a very much in form Radwanska who as I write is giving Vika Azarenka a thorough work out as they reach the third set in the semis.
Petra Kvitova, who would have taken the number one ranking should she have won in Sydney, had won all her matches in Australia - 4 in the Hopman Cup and after blitzing Li Na in the first set of their semi seemed on course for a finals berth. However, Li as defending champ, and Aus Open defending finalist, ground out a solid 3 set win.
So the women's singles trophy in Melbourne could be termed a lottery if we were to take all this at face value - we would be foolish to do so though.
Wozniacki, if her wrist is not as sore as some reports suggest, will be consistent on the Melbourne courts, and the quarters or semis I believe will include her name.
Kvitova is still my pick to win should something disastrous prevent Serena from playing to her best.
I believe that Sam Stosur can reach the 4th round, and from there anything is possible apart from a tournament win, but my dark horse from the tennis I've watched over the last few weeks is Agnieszka Radwanska. As 8th seed, a quarter final is hers for the taking (only complicated should she draw Serena or Kim in the 4th round) and she is capable of causing real damage once there.
Keep an eye out because my predictions will change by the minute - in fact the way Azarenka is fighting in her semi final in Sydney I just may have pushed her significantly higher in my reckoning, and she was already occupying one of the top level rooms in that reckoning.
Firstly the women - the last singles Grand Slam title winner, Samantha Stosur, has had three hit outs in the Australian summer, the last 2 straight sets losses, and hardly the preparation to inspire confidence in her supporters, let alone the player herself.
Andrea Petkovic, the top ten star from Germany has denied us her inimitable victory dances post winning matches due to stress fractures in her back forcing withdrawal from Melbourne.
Kim Clijsters, defending champion, is battling to overcome back problems of her own, though we are assured she will be OK come the 16th.
Serena looks in the best condition ever seen for an Australian Open campaign, and the ankle injury one hopes is but a passing niggle.
The 2 top ranked women in the world bowed out of the Sydney event earlier than expected, Wozniacki at the hands of a very much in form Radwanska who as I write is giving Vika Azarenka a thorough work out as they reach the third set in the semis.
Petra Kvitova, who would have taken the number one ranking should she have won in Sydney, had won all her matches in Australia - 4 in the Hopman Cup and after blitzing Li Na in the first set of their semi seemed on course for a finals berth. However, Li as defending champ, and Aus Open defending finalist, ground out a solid 3 set win.
So the women's singles trophy in Melbourne could be termed a lottery if we were to take all this at face value - we would be foolish to do so though.
Wozniacki, if her wrist is not as sore as some reports suggest, will be consistent on the Melbourne courts, and the quarters or semis I believe will include her name.
Kvitova is still my pick to win should something disastrous prevent Serena from playing to her best.
I believe that Sam Stosur can reach the 4th round, and from there anything is possible apart from a tournament win, but my dark horse from the tennis I've watched over the last few weeks is Agnieszka Radwanska. As 8th seed, a quarter final is hers for the taking (only complicated should she draw Serena or Kim in the 4th round) and she is capable of causing real damage once there.
Keep an eye out because my predictions will change by the minute - in fact the way Azarenka is fighting in her semi final in Sydney I just may have pushed her significantly higher in my reckoning, and she was already occupying one of the top level rooms in that reckoning.
Saturday, 7 January 2012
Doha belongs to France
The form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the tail end of 2011 shows no sign of abating into this year as he looks to claim the first title of 2012 in Doha. Yes he received a freebie from Roger, whose injured back raises concerns not only for him but for Aus Open organisers, but the French number one would have presented Federer with problems even had he needed to play the semi final.
The double surprise - and a pleasant one for French fans - is the fact that Gael Monfils has knocked over Rafa for the first time in ages. Admittedly this is only lead-up match play prior to the big fortnight in Melbourne, but it does add potential spice to the mens draw which in most pundits' minds offered few alternatives to a semi final line-up populated with the world's 4 top ranked players.
Add to the mix Janko Tipsarevic, who has cruised into the Chennai semis without missing too many beats, and there is much to salivate when considering mens singles from 16 January.
Monfils did defeat Tsonga last time they met, but I expect Jo to prevail in Doha - I also visualise 2008 as a distinct possibility of being played out again on Rod Laver Arena. Yes, that was Novak Djokovic's first entry into the Grand Slam title record books, and the French player he beat happened to be the surprise packet Tsonga. Not so much a surprise if he reprised his finals appearance this year.
The double surprise - and a pleasant one for French fans - is the fact that Gael Monfils has knocked over Rafa for the first time in ages. Admittedly this is only lead-up match play prior to the big fortnight in Melbourne, but it does add potential spice to the mens draw which in most pundits' minds offered few alternatives to a semi final line-up populated with the world's 4 top ranked players.
Add to the mix Janko Tipsarevic, who has cruised into the Chennai semis without missing too many beats, and there is much to salivate when considering mens singles from 16 January.
Monfils did defeat Tsonga last time they met, but I expect Jo to prevail in Doha - I also visualise 2008 as a distinct possibility of being played out again on Rod Laver Arena. Yes, that was Novak Djokovic's first entry into the Grand Slam title record books, and the French player he beat happened to be the surprise packet Tsonga. Not so much a surprise if he reprised his finals appearance this year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)