Sure I have mentioned in passing a few snippets of what i believe may transpire in the next 2 weeks, some of it even tennis related, but now I am forced to wager what few grams of credibility left within me on serious predictions for who will proceed and how far that procession will extend through the 2012 Australian Open Steeplechase.
In singles there will be 7 hurdles to overcome successfully in order for a legitimate claim to be processed before lifting the trophy overhead on 28 or 29 January. This is about the Mens Singles.
Before discussing the chances of this year's favourites, let us concentrate for awhile on Novak Djokovic, who I really feel has had the type of preparation which could cause a surprise amongst the more fancied men in the draw. The young Serbian player has a bright future, and could become one of the most feared players in the future if he can iron out a few faults within his game. Aus Open 2012 could well be the tournament in which he finally realises the potential promised for the last few years.
Another from left field is the veteran Swiss journeyman Roger Federer. Roger has spent over 10 years on tour, and without causing much of a stir amongst the top echelon, has managed to eke out a living from the sport he obviously loves. Despite what you may be told, the Federer backhand and increased reliability on serve put him in with a real show against his qualifier opponent in the first round. Who knows what could happen should he come out the other end of that tough one unscathed?
Clearly these are predictions on gut instinct with no real match winning form in Grand Slam tournaments from which to draw.
In sharp contrast we have Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt, between them winners of 3 Grand Slam singles titles, and a record of final and semi final appearances of which to be proud. The tragedy of the rankings system sees these two scheduled to meet in the second round, and so the expected Roddick-Hewitt Aus Open Final will not eventuate. Only one of the 2 favourites will make it into the second week. While my heart would like to see Lleyton fly the Aussie flag, I must go with American Andy - his has been the most recent Grand Slam championship success - the US Open a couple of years ago in 2003.
I am going out on a short and thin limb here, but I believe that Roddick can be upset by Djokovic in the 4th round, but then again Canadian Milos Raonic may do the upsetting on Novak's behalf in the round before. Raonic defeated Janko Tipsarevic in Chennai earlier in the month, and is a genuine threat to the top ten this year, and it could be very early in the season.
Speaking of the second ranked Serbian player, Janko will possibly feature in one of the finest matches in the round of 16 if he and Spain's David Ferrer (winner in Auckland a day or so ago) reach that impasse.
Right now I am going to gripe about the quarter final seedings. Novak Djokovic is the number one player by plenty and should be seeded to play the lowest ranked of the quarter finalists.
Yet he is drawn to play Ferrer, the 5th seed. Ferrer himself should not be expected to play anyone other than Andy Murray, the 4th seed.
No it's Federer, the 3rd seed, who is drawn to play the 8th seed, Fish. Murray is drawn to face 6th seed Tsonga. Whatever happened to 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5? Well Rafa v Berdych fits the logical draw, the other is a lottery rewarding pure luck and not performance and ranking.
OK that is out of my system - publicly at least - now back to some of those names. Berdych perfomed well in Hopman Cup singles and has the weaponry to push many of the top players, but his very best can be mitigated somewhat by inopportune lapses into inadequacy and poor judgement. It would take the sort of performance that booted Roger out of Wimbledon early in 2010 to make me consider him any sort of chance of taking Rafa beyond 3 or 4 sets in the quarters. A finals berth after successive wins over Nadal and Federer is a possibility if Berdych is having a great dream.
Tsonga, though is another matter altogether - for a start he is French not Czech. He has been to the finals here, albeit 4 years ago, but now he presents as a much more polished all round player with a number of weapons with which to claim titles and satisfy many of the demands of a Grand Slam tournament. To be quite blunt his quarter of the draw is rather soft on paper. At his best none of the players around him pose real problems - even the quarter-final opponent is probably the winner of Murray and Monfils, the latter who he has recently dispatched in Doha, the former who is still carrying demons from his past 2 embarassing finals here.
For me it is a Djokovic-Tsonga semi final in the top half of the draw, the same match-up we witnessed at Wimbledon last year. Salivating prospect indeed.
Rafa Nadal, even if not quite fully fit, has no opponents in his quarter of any real concern - the 4th round is drawn to be a clash with John Isner but the American is out of form and I fancy Nalbandian's chances to be the Spanish bull's 4th victim this event.
Berdych will not have the all court game to close off the Rafa shot making and so one semi spot should belong to Nadal.
Roger Federer will march straight into a quarter-final, leaving behind carnage possibly made up of Melzer and either Tomic (winner at Kooyong) or Brisbane runner-up Dolgopolov.
I hope the quarter final is Federer against his 2009 US Open nemesis Juan Martin Del Potro because the 11th seeded Argentine star is on the way back to the top few in the world, and has a catalogue of shots that could trouble the Swiss great. Nothing about the players in Del Potro's quarter should send a single shiver down the South American back, not even the 8 seed Mardy Fish, who is prone to bouts of inconsistency just at present.
Semi Final in the bottom half of the draw: Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer (but Del Potro is not far away at all)
Djokovic will in my humble and underwhelming opinion, defeat Federer in the final. However things will start happening on court tomorrow, and my opinion will continue to change like the wind, not in esteem certainly, but in content.
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Saturday, 14 January 2012
Aus Open Draw on Friday 13th - horror for some?
The fascination with the singles draw at a Grand Slam tournament is as much warranted as losing sleep over what may be the latest haircut Andy Roddick will impose upon his legion of Aussie fans.
Headlines all across the nation's prime time news coverage abound with the depth of unkindness inflicted by the mean old draw upon the Australian players, with perhaps the exception of Sam Stosur. That noted exception is hardly a ringing endorsement of the court skills of Sorana Cirstea one feels.
Let's face it, any player of the female persuasion would be a tough first round match up for the cardboard cut out of a US Open champion, and the Romanian is indeed a female. But I must be realistic - things do become easier for her should Sam win through the early rounds. It's only former Grand Slam finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round before Petra Kvitova awaits her in the quarter finals.
Underlying all this preposterous predicting is the tiny assumption that seeded players will win all their matches against lower ranked opponents and thus create the sumptuous contests that the recipes within the draw have directed.
Take one Belgian 4 time Grand Slam singles champion, add a slightly suspect back, and mix well with a Chinese Roland Garros winner. Bake the product in an open heat, covering well if the temperature reaches a certain level. Serve with one tennis ball, two if necessary.
This is the likely 4th round match between last year's finalists Kim Clijsters and Li Na. (or Na Li depending on which school, website or scoreboard to which you went) The 5th seed Li was very close to defending her title in Sydney last night only to be screamed off the court by Vika Azarenka, so is very much one of the in form women coming into Melbourne. Also remember that the runner-up in Sydney has gone on to make the final of the Aus Open in the last 3 years (winning the last 2).
Much has been made of Bernard Tomic, mainly because there is no one else in men's tennis in Australia of which to make anything. Well Bernie's been doing OK, losing in Brisbane to the eventual winner Andy "he of the fewest smiles granted a human being" Murray, before acquitting himself immaculately at Kooyong in the glorified hit-up between 8 of the best players in the world too lazy to fight for ATP points under pressure in meaningful tournaments.
The draw damaged Tomic according to experts - unnamed but most likely newsroom summer holiday temps asked to provide some headlines to poorly motivated sports editors. Well maybe he could have asked for a potentially easier opponent to play first up, but one of the guys from the tennis club down the road, who the draw had initially arranged for Bernard, had double booked and instead is playing a round of golf. So the contingency is 22nd seed Fernando Verdasco, the former semi-finalist here.
OK a little perspective should be placed into this discussion - it was 3 years ago that Verdasco played a legendary match against Rafa Nadal that saw him centimetres away from the Aus Open Final. Tomic was barely 16 at the time. In the time elapsed since then, Tomic has improved to the point where he nearly earned a seed for this year's Open, and Verdasco has never seen the same glory, indeed has fallen to 5th ranked Spaniard in the world. Fernando has not beaten a top ten player since his win over countryman Almagro in Switzerland last July - his only such success for the year.
If the draw did no favours it failed to do them for Verdasco, a player desperate for court time not having played competitively for over 2 months.
The draw is merely a facility - to win a Grand Slam singles tournament a player needs 7 wins (more if you want to create history as a qualifier) and sooner or later one of those wins will need to be against a top player. If you draw a top player early enough it just may be to your benefit because he or she may not have peaked. So do as the cliche master says and treat each match as tough. For Roger, Rafa, Serena, Petra and co, let the cliche kick in after a few rounds.
Headlines all across the nation's prime time news coverage abound with the depth of unkindness inflicted by the mean old draw upon the Australian players, with perhaps the exception of Sam Stosur. That noted exception is hardly a ringing endorsement of the court skills of Sorana Cirstea one feels.
Let's face it, any player of the female persuasion would be a tough first round match up for the cardboard cut out of a US Open champion, and the Romanian is indeed a female. But I must be realistic - things do become easier for her should Sam win through the early rounds. It's only former Grand Slam finalist Marion Bartoli in the fourth round before Petra Kvitova awaits her in the quarter finals.
Underlying all this preposterous predicting is the tiny assumption that seeded players will win all their matches against lower ranked opponents and thus create the sumptuous contests that the recipes within the draw have directed.
Take one Belgian 4 time Grand Slam singles champion, add a slightly suspect back, and mix well with a Chinese Roland Garros winner. Bake the product in an open heat, covering well if the temperature reaches a certain level. Serve with one tennis ball, two if necessary.
This is the likely 4th round match between last year's finalists Kim Clijsters and Li Na. (or Na Li depending on which school, website or scoreboard to which you went) The 5th seed Li was very close to defending her title in Sydney last night only to be screamed off the court by Vika Azarenka, so is very much one of the in form women coming into Melbourne. Also remember that the runner-up in Sydney has gone on to make the final of the Aus Open in the last 3 years (winning the last 2).
Much has been made of Bernard Tomic, mainly because there is no one else in men's tennis in Australia of which to make anything. Well Bernie's been doing OK, losing in Brisbane to the eventual winner Andy "he of the fewest smiles granted a human being" Murray, before acquitting himself immaculately at Kooyong in the glorified hit-up between 8 of the best players in the world too lazy to fight for ATP points under pressure in meaningful tournaments.
The draw damaged Tomic according to experts - unnamed but most likely newsroom summer holiday temps asked to provide some headlines to poorly motivated sports editors. Well maybe he could have asked for a potentially easier opponent to play first up, but one of the guys from the tennis club down the road, who the draw had initially arranged for Bernard, had double booked and instead is playing a round of golf. So the contingency is 22nd seed Fernando Verdasco, the former semi-finalist here.
OK a little perspective should be placed into this discussion - it was 3 years ago that Verdasco played a legendary match against Rafa Nadal that saw him centimetres away from the Aus Open Final. Tomic was barely 16 at the time. In the time elapsed since then, Tomic has improved to the point where he nearly earned a seed for this year's Open, and Verdasco has never seen the same glory, indeed has fallen to 5th ranked Spaniard in the world. Fernando has not beaten a top ten player since his win over countryman Almagro in Switzerland last July - his only such success for the year.
If the draw did no favours it failed to do them for Verdasco, a player desperate for court time not having played competitively for over 2 months.
The draw is merely a facility - to win a Grand Slam singles tournament a player needs 7 wins (more if you want to create history as a qualifier) and sooner or later one of those wins will need to be against a top player. If you draw a top player early enough it just may be to your benefit because he or she may not have peaked. So do as the cliche master says and treat each match as tough. For Roger, Rafa, Serena, Petra and co, let the cliche kick in after a few rounds.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Upsets and Injuries leading into Aus Open
As if the Australian Open didn't always offer a 2 week smorgasbord of unpredictability, 2012 is creating further intrigue with form and injury in lead up tournaments playing havoc with early predictions and betting markets.
Firstly the women - the last singles Grand Slam title winner, Samantha Stosur, has had three hit outs in the Australian summer, the last 2 straight sets losses, and hardly the preparation to inspire confidence in her supporters, let alone the player herself.
Andrea Petkovic, the top ten star from Germany has denied us her inimitable victory dances post winning matches due to stress fractures in her back forcing withdrawal from Melbourne.
Kim Clijsters, defending champion, is battling to overcome back problems of her own, though we are assured she will be OK come the 16th.
Serena looks in the best condition ever seen for an Australian Open campaign, and the ankle injury one hopes is but a passing niggle.
The 2 top ranked women in the world bowed out of the Sydney event earlier than expected, Wozniacki at the hands of a very much in form Radwanska who as I write is giving Vika Azarenka a thorough work out as they reach the third set in the semis.
Petra Kvitova, who would have taken the number one ranking should she have won in Sydney, had won all her matches in Australia - 4 in the Hopman Cup and after blitzing Li Na in the first set of their semi seemed on course for a finals berth. However, Li as defending champ, and Aus Open defending finalist, ground out a solid 3 set win.
So the women's singles trophy in Melbourne could be termed a lottery if we were to take all this at face value - we would be foolish to do so though.
Wozniacki, if her wrist is not as sore as some reports suggest, will be consistent on the Melbourne courts, and the quarters or semis I believe will include her name.
Kvitova is still my pick to win should something disastrous prevent Serena from playing to her best.
I believe that Sam Stosur can reach the 4th round, and from there anything is possible apart from a tournament win, but my dark horse from the tennis I've watched over the last few weeks is Agnieszka Radwanska. As 8th seed, a quarter final is hers for the taking (only complicated should she draw Serena or Kim in the 4th round) and she is capable of causing real damage once there.
Keep an eye out because my predictions will change by the minute - in fact the way Azarenka is fighting in her semi final in Sydney I just may have pushed her significantly higher in my reckoning, and she was already occupying one of the top level rooms in that reckoning.
Firstly the women - the last singles Grand Slam title winner, Samantha Stosur, has had three hit outs in the Australian summer, the last 2 straight sets losses, and hardly the preparation to inspire confidence in her supporters, let alone the player herself.
Andrea Petkovic, the top ten star from Germany has denied us her inimitable victory dances post winning matches due to stress fractures in her back forcing withdrawal from Melbourne.
Kim Clijsters, defending champion, is battling to overcome back problems of her own, though we are assured she will be OK come the 16th.
Serena looks in the best condition ever seen for an Australian Open campaign, and the ankle injury one hopes is but a passing niggle.
The 2 top ranked women in the world bowed out of the Sydney event earlier than expected, Wozniacki at the hands of a very much in form Radwanska who as I write is giving Vika Azarenka a thorough work out as they reach the third set in the semis.
Petra Kvitova, who would have taken the number one ranking should she have won in Sydney, had won all her matches in Australia - 4 in the Hopman Cup and after blitzing Li Na in the first set of their semi seemed on course for a finals berth. However, Li as defending champ, and Aus Open defending finalist, ground out a solid 3 set win.
So the women's singles trophy in Melbourne could be termed a lottery if we were to take all this at face value - we would be foolish to do so though.
Wozniacki, if her wrist is not as sore as some reports suggest, will be consistent on the Melbourne courts, and the quarters or semis I believe will include her name.
Kvitova is still my pick to win should something disastrous prevent Serena from playing to her best.
I believe that Sam Stosur can reach the 4th round, and from there anything is possible apart from a tournament win, but my dark horse from the tennis I've watched over the last few weeks is Agnieszka Radwanska. As 8th seed, a quarter final is hers for the taking (only complicated should she draw Serena or Kim in the 4th round) and she is capable of causing real damage once there.
Keep an eye out because my predictions will change by the minute - in fact the way Azarenka is fighting in her semi final in Sydney I just may have pushed her significantly higher in my reckoning, and she was already occupying one of the top level rooms in that reckoning.
Saturday, 7 January 2012
Doha belongs to France
The form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the tail end of 2011 shows no sign of abating into this year as he looks to claim the first title of 2012 in Doha. Yes he received a freebie from Roger, whose injured back raises concerns not only for him but for Aus Open organisers, but the French number one would have presented Federer with problems even had he needed to play the semi final.
The double surprise - and a pleasant one for French fans - is the fact that Gael Monfils has knocked over Rafa for the first time in ages. Admittedly this is only lead-up match play prior to the big fortnight in Melbourne, but it does add potential spice to the mens draw which in most pundits' minds offered few alternatives to a semi final line-up populated with the world's 4 top ranked players.
Add to the mix Janko Tipsarevic, who has cruised into the Chennai semis without missing too many beats, and there is much to salivate when considering mens singles from 16 January.
Monfils did defeat Tsonga last time they met, but I expect Jo to prevail in Doha - I also visualise 2008 as a distinct possibility of being played out again on Rod Laver Arena. Yes, that was Novak Djokovic's first entry into the Grand Slam title record books, and the French player he beat happened to be the surprise packet Tsonga. Not so much a surprise if he reprised his finals appearance this year.
The double surprise - and a pleasant one for French fans - is the fact that Gael Monfils has knocked over Rafa for the first time in ages. Admittedly this is only lead-up match play prior to the big fortnight in Melbourne, but it does add potential spice to the mens draw which in most pundits' minds offered few alternatives to a semi final line-up populated with the world's 4 top ranked players.
Add to the mix Janko Tipsarevic, who has cruised into the Chennai semis without missing too many beats, and there is much to salivate when considering mens singles from 16 January.
Monfils did defeat Tsonga last time they met, but I expect Jo to prevail in Doha - I also visualise 2008 as a distinct possibility of being played out again on Rod Laver Arena. Yes, that was Novak Djokovic's first entry into the Grand Slam title record books, and the French player he beat happened to be the surprise packet Tsonga. Not so much a surprise if he reprised his finals appearance this year.
Friday, 30 December 2011
That was 2011 so how about 2012?
Clearly we have witnessed the year of Novak Djokovic - 3 Grand Slam titles, a memorable finish in the French Open semis, plus Masters wins left right and centre. Pleasing towards the end of the year though was the rise of Roger Federer from a predicted career demise into a once more serious threat. Better still for the future of men's tennis was the continual improvement and greater consistency of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the rise of another Serbian player Janko Tipsarevic into the top ten, and the finish to 2011 by David Ferrer to match his start. Youngsters such as Tomic and Raonic have the opportunity to make further inroads into the upper echelon of the game in the upcoming season.
The signs of wear and tear on Rafa near the end of 2011 are of concern, but he has had this before yet managed to put in sensational periods of the most exhilarating tennis, so beware him in 2012, and not just on the clay (but especially the clay) The Davis Cup was won by Spain, and one of the losing team will be a player to watch in 2012 - Juan Martin Del Potro could have been anything following his 2009 US Open victory but injury thwarted his progress. Now he is well poised to leap into the top bracket again, and his best is an exciting brand of the game we love.
For the women, 2011 was fascinating not only due to the terrific standard of tennis but also the unpredictability - at the highest level we saw 4 different Grand Slam title winners, 3 of them debut champions. In Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, we quite possibly have the next world number one, and a player with the craft to hang on to that mantle for some time. I believe that with a major break through not far away Vika Azarenka has the game to be one of the most serious challengers to Petra. Samantha Stosur worked hard in the second half of the year to finally realise the potential she had shown for a number of years with her US Open crown, and Li Na was simply wonderful in the the first part of the year, making the first 2 Grand Slam finals, capturing Roland Garros after pushing Kim Clijsters all the way in Melbourne. Refreshing to see Sharapova fit for most of the year and able to finish where she deserves to be - amongst the top five in the end of year rankings. I doubted we would see Serena back again, possibly at all, and certainly not to the level she displayed so quickly. The game is that much greater for her presence. Players who finished the year strongly included Agnieszka Radwanska and Ana Ivanovic, both with legitimate claims on regular top ten positions throughout the coming year.
Lead up events to the 2012 Australian Open are upon us and it is time for my dreaded early tips for the first Grand Slam tournament of the year. Mens Singles favourite should be the world number one and defending champion Novak Djokovic, but Roger Federer shapes as a significant threat. The 2 may meet again in the semis, and if that happens my prediction is the semi winner wins the tournament, and it would be Novak in my humble opinion. If however the 2 were to meet in the final then I feel that Djokovic may find it harder to overcome the Federer experience of 5 finals for 4 wins. Ultimately I feel that he would overcome the difficulty, and therefore claim his 3rd Australian Open, and 3rd straight Grand Slam victory.
With the women it is harder to choose - Serena Williams will be seeded, but only high enough to guarantee a meeting in the fourth round with a top ten player - could be Stosur, Li Na, Zvonareva or even Sharapova - the draw will be horrid for someone. Irrespective, if fit I back Serena to make it through that fourth round, and because of her record in Melbourne she is my selection to win the next 3 matches after that, and the title. The dangers are Petra Kvitova and a fit Maria Sharapova, although I believe that Vika Azarenka has a serious chance this time, as too may Samantha Stosur should she handle the home town pressure and lower ranked early round opponents better than in previous years.
Can't wait for 16 January and the thrills in my home city, but all the attention for the moment is on the preliminaries - Brisbane, Auckland, Sydney and Hobart for the women, Brisbane, Sydney, Doha, Chennai and Auckland for the men.
The signs of wear and tear on Rafa near the end of 2011 are of concern, but he has had this before yet managed to put in sensational periods of the most exhilarating tennis, so beware him in 2012, and not just on the clay (but especially the clay) The Davis Cup was won by Spain, and one of the losing team will be a player to watch in 2012 - Juan Martin Del Potro could have been anything following his 2009 US Open victory but injury thwarted his progress. Now he is well poised to leap into the top bracket again, and his best is an exciting brand of the game we love.
For the women, 2011 was fascinating not only due to the terrific standard of tennis but also the unpredictability - at the highest level we saw 4 different Grand Slam title winners, 3 of them debut champions. In Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, we quite possibly have the next world number one, and a player with the craft to hang on to that mantle for some time. I believe that with a major break through not far away Vika Azarenka has the game to be one of the most serious challengers to Petra. Samantha Stosur worked hard in the second half of the year to finally realise the potential she had shown for a number of years with her US Open crown, and Li Na was simply wonderful in the the first part of the year, making the first 2 Grand Slam finals, capturing Roland Garros after pushing Kim Clijsters all the way in Melbourne. Refreshing to see Sharapova fit for most of the year and able to finish where she deserves to be - amongst the top five in the end of year rankings. I doubted we would see Serena back again, possibly at all, and certainly not to the level she displayed so quickly. The game is that much greater for her presence. Players who finished the year strongly included Agnieszka Radwanska and Ana Ivanovic, both with legitimate claims on regular top ten positions throughout the coming year.
Lead up events to the 2012 Australian Open are upon us and it is time for my dreaded early tips for the first Grand Slam tournament of the year. Mens Singles favourite should be the world number one and defending champion Novak Djokovic, but Roger Federer shapes as a significant threat. The 2 may meet again in the semis, and if that happens my prediction is the semi winner wins the tournament, and it would be Novak in my humble opinion. If however the 2 were to meet in the final then I feel that Djokovic may find it harder to overcome the Federer experience of 5 finals for 4 wins. Ultimately I feel that he would overcome the difficulty, and therefore claim his 3rd Australian Open, and 3rd straight Grand Slam victory.
With the women it is harder to choose - Serena Williams will be seeded, but only high enough to guarantee a meeting in the fourth round with a top ten player - could be Stosur, Li Na, Zvonareva or even Sharapova - the draw will be horrid for someone. Irrespective, if fit I back Serena to make it through that fourth round, and because of her record in Melbourne she is my selection to win the next 3 matches after that, and the title. The dangers are Petra Kvitova and a fit Maria Sharapova, although I believe that Vika Azarenka has a serious chance this time, as too may Samantha Stosur should she handle the home town pressure and lower ranked early round opponents better than in previous years.
Can't wait for 16 January and the thrills in my home city, but all the attention for the moment is on the preliminaries - Brisbane, Auckland, Sydney and Hobart for the women, Brisbane, Sydney, Doha, Chennai and Auckland for the men.
Saturday, 26 November 2011
ATP Silly Season
It's as if November has decided to ignore all that happened before it in 2011, and serve up a series of results in Mens tennis which are not fulfilling the script for a fitting finale, especially for Novak Djokovic, who should only be remembered for his outstanding year.
Yes it is cool that the Swiss maestro is wielding his wand with vintage precision and power, effectively turning back the clock to his days of dominance. However, Novak came out of the US Open with 3 Grand Slam titles for the year and only 2 match losses. After losing a Davis Cup match to Del Potro, he has lost a semi final in Basel, and now gone down to Ferrer and Tipsarevic in successive round robin matches at the season ending Masters Cup in London.
Hopefully, the lasting memory of London will be the Wimbledon triumph and not this unfortunate postscript to a stellar period in the career of a great champion.
The brave but vanquished opponent in the terrific Wimbledon final was of course Rafa Nadal, who captured the only Grand Slam title of 2011 missed by Djokovic on the clay of Roland Garros.
His part in the Barclays circus has been embarrassing by the Spaniard's lofty standards - a struggling win against Mardy Fish followed by a thrashing at the hands of Federer, and another loss, this time to Tsonga.
Rafa has clearly been the second best player in the world this year but has failed to make the semis of what should be a show piece of the best in mens' tennis to finish off the year.
Andy Murray has put in some wonderful work and finally achieved some consistent results to overtake Roger Federer in the rankings - his injury during the Barclays forced him to retire from the event and now will seemingly be destined to slip back to 4 in the world.
I am happy that David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Janko Tipsarevic are playing some top tennis - it potentially adds some badly needed depth to the elite level of the game.
Unless Ferrer beats Berdych, we will have the top 3 players in the world not even in the last 4 of the Masters Cup.
However I question how real that increased depth actually is. Murray being injured is an unfortunate outcome and uncontrollable. And the top 2 - Rafa and Novak - are far and away the best players of 2011, and all things being equal would be fighting off either for this title or at least comfortably at the semi final stage.
I am unhappy that this season seems to have taken its toll on Nadal and Djokovic - the demands of the schedule may have something to do with it, but I think the players themselves should take responsibility for their own welfare, and be smarter about working to the calendar. Federer is a good example - he is firing better at the very end of the year. Instead of throwing around threats of possible player strikes and other protest action, all players should just plan better and reduce the risk of wear and tear on their bodies.
I am prepared to dismiss any failures recorded against Nadal and Djokovic in the last part of this season as exceptions in a year which both players have given us tennis of a standard rarely seen by our generation, and if we are to believe older and wiser scribes, generations past.
Yes it is cool that the Swiss maestro is wielding his wand with vintage precision and power, effectively turning back the clock to his days of dominance. However, Novak came out of the US Open with 3 Grand Slam titles for the year and only 2 match losses. After losing a Davis Cup match to Del Potro, he has lost a semi final in Basel, and now gone down to Ferrer and Tipsarevic in successive round robin matches at the season ending Masters Cup in London.
Hopefully, the lasting memory of London will be the Wimbledon triumph and not this unfortunate postscript to a stellar period in the career of a great champion.
The brave but vanquished opponent in the terrific Wimbledon final was of course Rafa Nadal, who captured the only Grand Slam title of 2011 missed by Djokovic on the clay of Roland Garros.
His part in the Barclays circus has been embarrassing by the Spaniard's lofty standards - a struggling win against Mardy Fish followed by a thrashing at the hands of Federer, and another loss, this time to Tsonga.
Rafa has clearly been the second best player in the world this year but has failed to make the semis of what should be a show piece of the best in mens' tennis to finish off the year.
Andy Murray has put in some wonderful work and finally achieved some consistent results to overtake Roger Federer in the rankings - his injury during the Barclays forced him to retire from the event and now will seemingly be destined to slip back to 4 in the world.
I am happy that David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Janko Tipsarevic are playing some top tennis - it potentially adds some badly needed depth to the elite level of the game.
Unless Ferrer beats Berdych, we will have the top 3 players in the world not even in the last 4 of the Masters Cup.
However I question how real that increased depth actually is. Murray being injured is an unfortunate outcome and uncontrollable. And the top 2 - Rafa and Novak - are far and away the best players of 2011, and all things being equal would be fighting off either for this title or at least comfortably at the semi final stage.
I am unhappy that this season seems to have taken its toll on Nadal and Djokovic - the demands of the schedule may have something to do with it, but I think the players themselves should take responsibility for their own welfare, and be smarter about working to the calendar. Federer is a good example - he is firing better at the very end of the year. Instead of throwing around threats of possible player strikes and other protest action, all players should just plan better and reduce the risk of wear and tear on their bodies.
I am prepared to dismiss any failures recorded against Nadal and Djokovic in the last part of this season as exceptions in a year which both players have given us tennis of a standard rarely seen by our generation, and if we are to believe older and wiser scribes, generations past.
Saturday, 29 October 2011
Kvitova Star of 2011
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| Petra Kvitova Wimbledon Final 2011 |
Victoria Azarenka, despite her loss in the final round robin match, had already secured top billing in the White Group, and with her stunning recent form appears ready to take a major step in a huge event.
Never having been past a semi-final at Grand Slam level, the Belarussian should still have the firepower to dispense with Vera Zvonareva and proceed to the final in Istanbul.
Vera made it through as the second ranked player in the Red Group, only on a countback - one win and two losses hardly inspires thoughts of the Russian star advancing further.
If truth be told, the best performed player of the trio of single match winners was Poland's Agnieszka Radwanska, whose comeback win against Zvonareva was full of merit, and the straight sets loss to Petra Kvitova should at least have been a three setter considering Radwanska led 5-1 in the first.
The other semi final is the marquee match of the two based on performances so far. Czech Wimbledon champ Kvitova has been almost frightening in her attack on ball and opponent, and has yet to lose a set.
She faces reigning US Open champion Australian Samantha Stosur, who defeated her nemesis Maria Sharapova at the 10th attempt in straight sets, stumbled against the Azarenka freight train, but then destroyed hapless Li Na for the loss of a single game. The Chinese girl failed to hold serve the entire match.
The winners of the last 2 Grand Slam titles fighting for a place in the final. Kvitova must start the favourite, and head to head record gives her the advantage as well, leading that 2-0, including what was at the time a surprise victory when they met in the Australian Open earlier this year. What Kvitova will not be able to do as easily in this match is to physically dominate. The wins she has had have come against players without the power factor in their games - Wozniacki, Zvonareva and Radwanska.
As Stosur showed against Serena Williams in the US Open final, power is a major component of her game. However, the Aussie will need to be sharp on her back hand wing, and continue displaying the variety of slice and spin that has complemented her forehand weapon and brought such success post Wimbledon this year.
The fact that Petra is a left hander throws another variable into the equation - Stosur's damaging off forehand will be collected by Kvitova's forehand in most instances, and the Australian needs to be wary of feeding this too much.
Overall, I believe that Stosur has the potential to win, but that Kvitova is the more likely given current form and how they match up against each other.
Kvitova would most likely face Azarenka in the final, and my prediction there is that Petra will win (repeating the semi final result at Wimbledon), and despite not finishing the year ranked number one, will have earned the title of Player of the Year.
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