Novak Djokovic is world number one, top seed and favourite for Wimbledon 2021.
No surprises why. He has won the past two in addition to three others, has won the first two majors for 2021, and is leading the ATP Race to Turin.
He should find a path to the quarter finals, possibly meeting and beating Kevin Anderson in the second round, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (30) or Andreas Seppi in the third, and Gaël Monfils (13) or Cristian Garin (17) in the round of sixteen.
Harder to survive is the quarter final where Djokovic’s opponent comes from a section including Diego Schwartzman (9), Jannik Sinner (19), Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and of most significance Andrey Rublev (5).
Harder, but not too difficult.
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Schwartzman and the Argentine hasn’t passed the third round at Wimbledon.
In two Wimbledon tries, including 2019, Rublev exited in the second round, and he hasn’t had the pleasure yet of playing Djokovic.
Sinner will be playing Wimbledon for the first time, and he lost his only match against Djokovic in Monte Carlo this year.
Ramos-Vinolas is 0-6 in matches against the #1.
Semi final opponent for Djokovic is derived from the quarter of Stefanos Tsitsipas, third seed and Roland Garros finalist.
The Greek player has had a great year, but his Wimbledon history is not wonderful, two first round defeats in 2017 and 2019 and a round of sixteen in the middle of those.
Despite this, his tennis has grown enormously in the past two years, and I cannot see him troubled enough by his first proper test, Karen Khachanov (25) in the third round, to prevent a round of sixteen berth.
There it may be Alex de Minaur (15) (Eastbourne winner), if the Australian can get by Sebastian Korda in a crowd pleasing first rounder.
Sadly for de Minaur, he has lost all five times he’s clashed with Tsitsipas, including twice this year.
Quarter final for Tsitsipas.
His opponent will be the winner of Denis Shapovalov (10) and Roberto Bautista Agut (8) who I think can take out Reilly Opelka (27) in the third round. Bautista Agut was a semi finalist in 2019.
Experience should see the Spaniard make the quarter finals this year.
However, Tsitsipas may stop him there - he has beaten Bautista Agut the twice they have met, once this year, the other in the 2019 Australian Open quarters.
Thus a rematch of this year’s Roland Garros final between Djokovic and Tsitsipas to be seen in a Wimbledon semi final.
A lot of fanfare surrounding Roger Federer (6), and he is featured in the bottom half of the draw.
He can depend on his impeccable Wimbledon record to help him through, because he has no match fitness upon which to rely.
I will give him the benefit of the doubt in early matches against Adrian Mannarino, who has lost all six matches against Federer, and other possible opponents such as Richard Gasquet (lost last 10) and Cameron Norrie (29) (yet to meet)
Round of sixteen should also be a favourable contest for Federer, with either Pablo Carreno Busta (11) or Lorenzo Sonego (23) on the other side of the net.
However, the run ends for the Swiss maestro in a quarter final against the winner of a third round contest between Daniil Medvedev (2) and Marin Cilic (32).
Medvedev just displayed grass court credentials by winning Mallorca, and Cilic likewise in Stuttgart.
Medvedev won a close encounter on a hard court in Washington in 2019, in his only match with Cilic to date.
Cilic has three Wimbledon quarter finals to his credit and was runner up to Federer in 2017.
Medvedev has two third rounds and a second in his portfolio.
The second seed, as with Tsitsipas, has improved out of sight in recent times, and will win the quarter final against Federer.
The other semi finalist in the bottom half of the draw will be the winner between Matteo Berrettini (7) and Alexander Zverev (4).
Berrettini won Belgrade, and now also on the grass at Queens. His booming serve and blasting forehand are the perfect fit for Wimbledon, and even John Isner (28) in a likely third round match won’t be able to overcome the Italian presence.
Aslan Karatsev (20) and Casper Ruud (12) are part of the future, but a couple of steps behind Matteo, and ultimately not stumbling blocks to a Ferrari drive to a quarter final.
Zverev is fast realising his immense potential, and his ability to thrive on all surfaces has been borne out by a US Open runner up trophy and a Roland Garros semi final performance which was close to clinching a finals spot.
He lost a three setter to Ugo Humbert (21) in Halle, and the Frenchman (who went on to win that tournament) poses the most danger to Zverev in his path to the quarter final.
Ugo Humbert has a fascinating first round match against the mercurial but often missing in action Nick Kyrgios. I think the best of five test may be a little too difficult for Nick considering his lack of competitive time on the tennis court this year.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (16) offers some resistance to Humbert in the third round.
Berrettini a tiny bit stronger than Zverev in a brutal quarter final.
In summary, my semi final predictions:
Novak Djokovic (1) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (3)
Matteo Berrettini (7) v Daniil Medvedev (2)
Final: Novak Djokovic (1) to defeat Matteo Berrettini (7) in four sets.
Danger: Marin Cilic (32)
