RG - WOMEN’S SINGLES PREVIEW
Roland Garros begins tomorrow, and this years women’s singles champion is difficult to predict. My selection will eventually come from a group consisting of:
Reigning title holder Iga Swiatek, the previous winner Ashleigh Barty, another past champion Garbiñe Muguruza, triple title winner this year Aryna Sabalenka and Serena Williams.
Before assessing each of their chances, I should explain the absence of a couple of notables.
Second seed, Naomi Osaka has never been past the third round at RG, and has lost two out of the three matches she has played on clay this year.
Fourth seed, and last years RG runner up, Sofia Kenin, made two quarter finals in January/February this year, but since has a 2-6 match record, including 0-3 since moving to clay. Those losses on clay to players ranked 27, 40, 79.
Now to the possibles
Iga Swiatek is seeded #8, so begins reasonably protected from highly ranked opposition.
First up is Slovenian Kaja Juvan, ranked 101, and beaten by Swiatek as recently as January in the Gippsland Trophy tournament in Melbourne.
Shelby Rogers or Rebecca Peterson in second round, and apart from a RG quarter final for Rogers back in 2016, nothing auspicious from either to write home about on the Paris red dirt.
After probably Kontaveit in the third round, the biggest threat for Swiatek comes in the round of sixteen where 12th seed Garbiñe Muguruza almost certainly awaits.
For either of Swiatek or Muguruza, a quarter final against either Maria Sakkari (17) or Elise Mertens (14) is likely, given my dire forecast for Kenin in that section.
Barty in the semis and someone from the bottom half of the draw if the final is made.
I believe Muguruza will stop the defending champion and continue her drive forward.
Garbiñe won here in 2016, and this year is displaying the type of form that won her that title and took her to number one.
Before taking down Swiatek, a tricky path through the early rounds highlighted by Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk with which to begin, compatriot Sara Sorribes Tormo likely second up, and then seemingly Petra Martic.
Tricky but manageable for the Spaniard.
Ashleigh Barty starts with what should be straightforward wins against Bernarda Pera and likely Magda Linette, but she is drawn to face Ons Jabeur (25) in the third round which will be a good test. Jabeur made the round of sixteen in RG 2020.
Round of sixteen opponent could be anyone of CoCo Gauff (24), Jennifer Brady (13), Wang Qiang, Fiona Ferro or Anastasija Sevastova.
Gauff defeated Barty recently in Rome, albeit through the Australian retiring while ahead by a set. Still, the young American is enjoying a stellar year, title in Parma, semis in Rome and Adelaide, assisting her ranking rocketing to #25.
The quarter final in my crystal ball is Barty v Elina Svitolina (5), quarter finalist at RG2020, and this would be a third match up of 2021, Barty winning semis in Miami and Stuttgart.
I can’t see a third time lucky for Elina.
A semi final against Muguruza is beckoning, and Barty will be wanting a repeat of her victory over Muguruza in the Yarra Valley Classic final in January.
Aryna Sabalenka has won three titles this year, including a defeat over Barty in the Madrid final, avenging the Stuttgart final loss.
The pair are leading the field in the WTA Race to Shenzhen.
Although the best Sabalenka has done at RG is the third round last year, she should be much happier during the next fortnight.
The Belarusian is drawn to meet Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (31) in round three and Victoria Azarenka (15) in the round of sixteen, but Azarenka needs to account for Svetlana Kuznetsova in the opening round, and former semi finalist and quarter finalist Madison Keys (23) is another wandering around that area of the draw.
A quarter final with either Serena Williams (7) or Petra Kvitová (11) seems a real possibility. For all her exploits, Kvitová hasn’t a distinguished record at RG, but she did fly through to the final four last year.
Williams S, since her win in 2015, and final loss in 2016, has not progressed past the fourth round since, but still poses a threat this year if fit. Despite a 1-2 record on the clay this year.
Sabalenka, if a semi finalist, may encounter Bianca Andreescu if the sixth seed is fully recovered from her abdominal injury.
Others who may challenge Andreescu for this spot include Johanna Konta (19) and Amanda Anisimova, 2019 RG semi finalists, and Veronika Kudermetova (29), 13-3 on clay in 2021.
Naomi Osaka should have been eliminated by a better equipped clay court exponent by this stage. Paula Badosa (33) is a likely third round opponent, and the Spanish player is 13-2 on clay this year, including a win over Ashleigh Barty, and a title in Belgrade.
So, after all that, my predictions are:
Semi finals:
Ashleigh Barty (1) v Garbiñe Muguruza (12)
Aryna Sabalenka (3) v Paula Badosa (33)
Final:
Ashleigh Barty (1) to defeat Aryna Sabalenka (3) in three sets.
